40/70 Benchmark

I'm turning over a new leaf. I may even beat Ginxy to the next upslope thread...I'm an altruistic weenie now.

Yea, not bad....I don't expect much here, but hopefully south of the pike does okay.

Well, -AO/NAO does help dislodge cold in the general sense, since it entails higher heights over the arctic, but yea....primary vehicle for the delivery of real arctic cold is an EPO and/or PNA ridge. Having both is ideal for cross polar flow....we had that on roids in 2015.

March 2001 was def wet for a time in Wilmington...but you are right, usually the mechanics that drive that type event include arctic HP.

12/19 was powdery, though...anyway, the rest are more MECS, than HECS. I'm talking like the 3/01, 12/92 of the world.

I can say that the vast majority of my frustrating weather experiences are from subsidence/whiffs, rather than rain....I think 12/96 is really the only one that stands out in my memory. My scars are littered with stories of exhaust, though.

There was some in 12/17.....I don't mean CJ in the sense that no one else gets snow. Just that OES enhancement.

Seems like every KU is wind whipped powder, with CJ streamers over Weymouth and Norwell.

Seems like every big fish is cold nowadays....not too many of those heavy, wet crushers, where you have the sharp gradient near the coast. You would think that there would be more of those given climate change, but there seems to be less.....or maybe they are just rain now-

Yea, I remember checking out the 00z Euro like the day after my dad passed, just begging for a distraction and for that ocean tempest to back that ass up...but didn't happen, that month. Cold, dry and windy.

Right...I got pissy latter Feb 2011 and into March, and March 2015, but nothing like this.

I think that is aptly resolved in the medium range on the EURO...that is why it ends up a light event up here. Its shredded between the block, and 602DM heights over Biscayne Bay.

Nobody except us lol Problem that I have with that is that it will either need to happen quickly, or be quite an anomaly....as you pointed out, only one moderate la nina over the past 70+ years has rallied fiercely in the second half in this area. If this were an el nino, then I wouldn't sweat it. You can try to use Tip's Hadley Cell clause to wiggle off of the figurative hook that is this train of thought, but as you and I have discussed, theoretically, HC expansion should only serve to constructively interfere with the already normally unfavorable Feb la nina regime. Better pray to get lucky and have that next PV succeed at tempting that heffer of a sister to plant herself on a couch in Canada. If we end up with the anorexic twin again, its curtains, barring a miracle.

You can see how quickly the meteorological wheel of fortune can spin, though...envision grabbing a couple of inches on 1/26....couple more on 1/29.....than BANG on 1/31. Close it out with 15"........look back through history ten years from now and you wouldn't so much as bat an eyelash at this month, despite the 4-5 weeks of hell that we've all endured. You'd take a look at the 20"+ monthly tally that belies the hellish first 80% of it and think'..."decent month". "I'd take it".

I fully expect a tick back south next cycle....very low expectations here. I think someone like Luke should be optimistic, though,

You would think going in that this would be the kind of winter that I would be favored relative to the rest of the region, but it just hasn't worked out....yet. The meat of every event is either in SNE or NNE...been that way since I moved here, save for 12/4/19.

Still say 1/26 is a sell for me....but maybe not for the whole region.

More like a 6" deform band in this one.

I could see a light event like the Euro....actually mod in SW NE....I think that is totally possible. I just doubt like widespread warning for all of the region.

I get what he means....storm is on the map at day 9...still funny.

Yea, brought it back to Hatteras lol

Good just to see even a single deterministic solution not named Ukie run this far to the north.

Hopefully we can get some decent mid level fronto on the northern periphery of that shield.

Well, there are the clipper amounts everyone is yearning for.

Just the way you like your weenies