40/70 Benchmark

Yea, that is how I found out lol Taking out the trash

Got a dusting tonight....first flakes.

I know, but I'm just elaborating by pointing out that SSW have a great deal of variation...some are great, while others can end winter. Safest bet is a nice Pacific...agreed.

If its in Aisa or Eurasia, sure, but a displacement on this side of the globe is fine.

Without even considering the Pacific, a strong PV can still result in a good pattern depending on if and in which direction its stretched. Much of the guidance has had it tilted right in the direction of the NE, much like December 2007. Take a look st that month....veey strong PV and near records snows.

Yea, I went with more -WPO than -EPO, but same general idea. Agree.

Good summatization and agree. 2022 is a very strong polar analog.

I suspect you understand very well what he is saying....the implication is a consistently favorable, Pacific driven pattern. I defend you from time to time, but that is clearly a poor attempt at trolling. A strong PV in this case is not a big deal.

Hopefully my area would be well positioned for that.

This is consistent with my January forecast.

Holy split flow

Wow, I think I wanna jump into @MJO812's cruiser now.

"But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, and manage to avoid being 50+ on Christmas".

Discuss and post pics.

I hate that site, though...the graphics are much more ambiguous.

Interesting ride in the cruiser for some unassuming shoplifter....crime really doesn't pay.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cha+cha+changes+lyrics&sca_esv=2ba1e0c14cc8627a&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS1049US1049&sxsrf=ADLYWILsNdjojrd0IuuOMlMGVOBd0-7rWg%3A1732717126141&ei=RipHZ_KtCP2JptQPo7nt8Qs&oq=cha+cha&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiB2NoYSBjaGEqAggAMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMggQLhiABBixAzIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBTIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYsQMyChAuGIAEGEMYigUyChAAGIAEGEMYigUyBRAAGIAESLocUABYrA5wAXgBkAEAmAGQAaAB_gSqAQM2LjG4AQHIAQD4AQGYAgigAqoFqAIUwgIHECMYJxjqAsICEBAAGAMYtAIY6gIYjwHYAQHCAgoQIxiABBgnGIoFwgINEC4YgAQYQxjUAhiKBcICExAuGIAEGMcBGCcYigUYjgUYrwHCAgQQIxgnwgIOEC4YgAQYxwEYjgUYrwHCAg0QLhiABBixAxhDGIoFmAMEugYGCAEQARgKkgcDNy4xoAexYQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:94077583,vid:4BgF7Y3q-as,st:0

Watch for a subtle STJ, too....a la 1995...(ducks and runs).

The forcing is always more prominent during the cold season because all of the gradients steepen.

Season won't be that cold, but ENSO is a very storng match....late blossoming, weak Modoki configuration. The east vs west with respect to ENSO is not really important when its weak.

We saw this in 1998, as well. Its so cool how mother nature finds a means of balance.....remember how we had the El Nino with cool ENSO tendencies last year, now, we have a fledgling cool ENSO with El Nino tendencies, despite the MC favored regime of the past decade.

Don't overlook that OV stretching, either....I have notied that and for one, I actually like the angle of the dangle.

Phase 6 neutral.

Those are general guidelines......we know what the base state has been for the past decade. Take a look at phase 6-neutral, anyway...

I would expect it to emerge into the MC given the decay of the +AAM in conjunction with the reinvigoration of cool ENSO.