40/70 Benchmark

I think we will.

I agree for the most part, but with some caveats relative to the bolded....sure, the cold will be focused west the majority of the time, however, don't understate the importance of Bering sea ridging in making it slighly more accessible to the east than it was in 2022-2023. This is especially true if we get more +PNA intervals, which I suspect that we will in January. I agree that it won't be as severe as 2013-2014 simply because the favorable Pacific won't be as consistent, but I think we will see some variability that includes periods like that during expecially the month of January.

I feel pretty good about December relative to my expectation, although I will probably be a bit too warm due to the unanticipated magnitude of that WWB. The lower and of my +3 to +5 my still work.

I am on the same page as you.

Big difference I see from 2022 is the WPO, which is remaining fairly negative as anticipated. Even with that mild pattern, we still have higher heights in the Bering Sea. This is why the season shouldn't be as bad as that year.

Not bad.

January will be nice IMO.

Yea...Dec 2022 was my favorite analog going in.

We may have had generally the right idea, just perhaps a bit more of a protracted cold shot early in the month relative to expectation, due to the extreme WWB.

If it isn't going to snow, I would rather it warm up for selfush reasons.

I look pretty much on track right now ...probably end up too warm in December, but not bad.

The strengthening PV can lock the Pacific pattern into place.

Absolutely.

Yea, that is how I found out lol Taking out the trash

Got a dusting tonight....first flakes.

I know, but I'm just elaborating by pointing out that SSW have a great deal of variation...some are great, while others can end winter. Safest bet is a nice Pacific...agreed.

If its in Aisa or Eurasia, sure, but a displacement on this side of the globe is fine.

Without even considering the Pacific, a strong PV can still result in a good pattern depending on if and in which direction its stretched. Much of the guidance has had it tilted right in the direction of the NE, much like December 2007. Take a look st that month....veey strong PV and near records snows.

Yea, I went with more -WPO than -EPO, but same general idea. Agree.

Good summatization and agree. 2022 is a very strong polar analog.

I suspect you understand very well what he is saying....the implication is a consistently favorable, Pacific driven pattern. I defend you from time to time, but that is clearly a poor attempt at trolling. A strong PV in this case is not a big deal.

Hopefully my area would be well positioned for that.

This is consistent with my January forecast.

Holy split flow

Wow, I think I wanna jump into @MJO812's cruiser now.