40/70 Benchmark

Go NAM.

Maybe hold the 1997 redux off until about 2033 or so...

Yea, I understand there are caveats abound. We are due for a 1997 type of El Nino, but hopefully after the turn of the decade, which is when I think we could have a very favorable period, otherwise.

I think this deviations should grow easier to come by over the next few years as the Pacific cold phase relinquishes its grip. Caveat being I think polar blockking may be scarcer as we enter the descending phase of the solar cycle.

I expect a similar, but modified outcome next month...perhaps without the blizzard and still slightly above normal.

Meh.

My area did just fine in early Feb 2021, January 2022 and even March 2023 across the interior.

Yea, I learned that the hard way....the lower RONI being more reflective of competing sources, rather than simply a weaker El Nino was great way to conceptuialize it. I think it work better for an El Nino like 2002 or 1957...in which the lower RONI was reflecvtive of a more Modoki look.

Yea, the WSO goes negative, and we're porked.

Agree.

I think we will.

I agree for the most part, but with some caveats relative to the bolded....sure, the cold will be focused west the majority of the time, however, don't understate the importance of Bering sea ridging in making it slighly more accessible to the east than it was in 2022-2023. This is especially true if we get more +PNA intervals, which I suspect that we will in January. I agree that it won't be as severe as 2013-2014 simply because the favorable Pacific won't be as consistent, but I think we will see some variability that includes periods like that during expecially the month of January.

I feel pretty good about December relative to my expectation, although I will probably be a bit too warm due to the unanticipated magnitude of that WWB. The lower and of my +3 to +5 my still work.

I am on the same page as you.

Big difference I see from 2022 is the WPO, which is remaining fairly negative as anticipated. Even with that mild pattern, we still have higher heights in the Bering Sea. This is why the season shouldn't be as bad as that year.

Not bad.

January will be nice IMO.

Yea...Dec 2022 was my favorite analog going in.

We may have had generally the right idea, just perhaps a bit more of a protracted cold shot early in the month relative to expectation, due to the extreme WWB.

If it isn't going to snow, I would rather it warm up for selfush reasons.

I look pretty much on track right now ...probably end up too warm in December, but not bad.

The strengthening PV can lock the Pacific pattern into place.

Absolutely.

Yea, that is how I found out lol Taking out the trash

Got a dusting tonight....first flakes.