40/70 Benchmark

Festive Lights Snows Possible Leading into the Holiday Focus Overnight Friday and Perhaps Christmas Holiday The prospect for a White Christmas continues to relatively bleak for the majority of the region, however, there is a relatively strong likelihood of some areas receiving a light snowfall over the next several days, This first such opportunity will present itself overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, which is the timeframe that was initially introduced last Saturday. The overall long wave pattern, as initially outlined last weekend, is fairly conductive to a significant winter storm along the northeast US coast. In fact, there is a chance that a period of light snow will engulf a portion of the area on Friday evening as the low pressure area is in its incipient stages. However, what has become apparent over the course of this week is that there will be a lead piece of energy that will prevent the trailing wave from amplifying fast enough to provide a major storm system for the forecast area. This mitigating factor is exacerbated the by fact that the MJO is just now beginning to emerge from phase 5. This also acts to inhibit trough amplification on the east coast. The end result is thus a retardation of the evolution of this system, which does not begin to coalesce with the lead energy until the predawn hours of Saturday, when it is ready to exit area. This causes the precipitation shield to remain light and recede rapidly towards midnight on Friday and into early Saturday morning, effectively ending the event before it can provide most locales with an appreciable chance of a White Christmas. However, there is a subtle suggestion that all hope may not be lost courtesy of a meager piece of energy on Christmas itself. Be that as it may, odds of catching a glimpse off Santa twerking down the chimney maybe slightly more robust than those of a white Christmas for the vast majority of the area. Extended Range Preview for Balance of 2024 Beyond the Christmas holiday and towards the New Year, there are signs that the anticipated warm up will be muted to some extend by the emergent agreement that the apex of the ridge node will maneuver into Canada an the Davis Straight. This would act to trap modified polar air beneath the block and potentially force any storm systems further to the south, which could introduce some wintry precipitation chances across at least a portion of the area.

EURO AI model kind of looks like the GFS with CJ in my area.

Tried to tell ya.

Too bad that cut off over Myrtle Beach...would have been an all-timer-

I remember that....mistake discontinuing it. Didn't realize that they had.

Think about how you would feel if you lamented aloud "Man, I have a fu**king splitting headache"....and some ass jockey witinin earshot shoots back "I feel great, no head-throb here!"

No, no....just to clear this up, I never would have suggested you were doing so here. Nothing wrong with reflecting on your own obs. The difference is there are certain points in the past when it seemed as though folks feel the need to counter an expressed sentiment. Ie...people just like to vent frustration when they haven't gotten jack shit, and it can piss people off when someone who did relatively well feels inclined to reply directly to said statement with "well, we did fine here". Its invalidating. When folks are pissed, they just want to feel heard because it aides in the processing of the negative emotions. It would be received much better if you simply report your own good fortune in an entirely seperate thought/response. I know this seems like psychobabble, but it really is at the heart of what triggers a great deal of bickering when some get porked.

Looks like a bunch of amorphous garbage that will make it a bit festive for some lucky locales.

Got down to 34.2 on my station, but no slick spots.

Its cool that we all had expectations in check, so the right mindset is in place, but lets not get carried away (not suggesting anyone in particular has).

I still don't see a bonafide winter "storm"....I'll take the under on 2" IMBY between now and Xmas AM.

Thankfully stayed above freezing in my area....

OMG.....I am so terrified of my kids driving one day.

That Xmas deal just seems like some mixed festive/grinchy snow/rain showers.

Nah, hence the trip to the mall.

Euro is still like 1-2"....not sure I am ready to by some of these 3-4" amounts....at least in my area.

?

I know I saw some posts to the effect that it could come back and be a light to moderate event, but I haven't been able to be gluded to his place like I usually am.

Planning having a nice festive family day on Saturday...out to breakfast and then to the mall to have the kids see Santa...having a couple of inches of currier and ives to add to the overall holiday ambiance would be the quite the memory and really add to the experience.

I thought he was arguing the storm was going to shift west?

Gotta give you props for your instinct on this if I'm being fair. I wasn't feeling it....caveat being lets see how the plane lands because its not yet on the runway.

I don't know how many times I have seen that inverse of that exact gradient over the course of the last several years....about time.

This is def more of a 2020-2021 type of mismatch, that encompassed most of Dec and January than it is 2022, which was more focused on January. Pretty clear I missed on that, but hit on the larger notion of a favorable mismatch period from modern cool ENSO climo.

Wonder where @forkyforkis to report that?

I love those