40/70 Benchmark

.36" here...slept through it all. I'm turning into Kev with the sleep schedule now in my mid 40s.

I'm sure it will consist of more pictures from up and in, with perhaps some slop for @ineedsnowand @HoarfrostHubb...nothing I'll give a salty scrotum about.

You can see how it was a rountine looking, progressive system until around 1500 on 3/31, when it was apparent that it began to get captured and etch its place into history.

Exactly.....if you go back and look at my Outlooks from like 2021 and beyond, 70% of the pieces was breaking down ENSO composites....hell, up until 2020, I used to break down every element of the atmosphere from scratch and explain it from the bottom up, but it there was value in doing it because it helped me to learn...much lke writing research papers in school. You and I have many Outlook efforts under out belt, we don't need to do that anymore. One thing I have found helpful is doing the basic explanations on a serparte post and hyperlinking it in the body of the outlook....I refer them as "addendums".

The primary issue I have seen with your work is that you tend to get lost in the trees and lose sight of the forest, so to speak.......the data is overwhelming as it is for me going back to 1950, nonethless 1870 or whatever the hell you do. There is a paradox that exisits in that on the one hand, we have such a grave dearth of data in terms of sample size, but on the other hand, there is data saturation with respect to the sample that we do work with. Its important to set boundaries so you don't endure "paralysis by analysis" and spend more time sorting data than you actually do forecasting. I have noticed that you tend to exhaust yourself with ENSO composites, which is something that I have moved away from because if anything, ENSO is growing less preavlent as a seasonal driver. ENSO is the foundation of the seasonal house, metaphircally speaking....we have a finite amount of time to complete this seasonal work and if you spend 2 months polishing the foundation, you're going to build an inferior house.

I consider ONI, MEI and RONI.

Old man winter's schlong

What's 6.5 degrees between weenies

1999-2000 was one of my stronger winter analogs and it offered plenty of value in hindisight, but its a good example of why seasonal forecasting is so difficult. One needs to detemrine not only which seasons offer value and what said value is, but what the main driver(s) will be during the ensuing winter season. In this case, the EPO was the primary driver and in played an instrumental role in why this season was signfiicantly colder than '99-'00. This is is primary reason why I was too warm this past season. La Nina behaved similarly (Modoki), albeit weaker (expected) and the polar domain evolved in a like manner, which was foreshadowed well by the westerly QBO high solar research.

I expect more guidance to lean in the direction of the CFS as we progress through the spring and into the summer/fall.

BTW, I referenced the parallel between Feb 2000 and this past Feb by way to the storngly positive PNA (by calculation), there was also a parallel during the month of March, as the SSW was similar both in terms of evolution and timing. This was my primary SSW analog. Given that the QBO analog of 2020-2021 took place near solar minimum, the early January 2021 SSW is of least relevance as a viable analog occurrence this season. However, the February 2023 SSW, which is a better solar analog, lends more support to a later season potential polar vortex disruption along the lines of March 1971 and 2000. This notion is supported by research on high solar, westerly QBO seasons, which lends credence to the late winter/early spring displacement scenario. The research clearly implies that a displacement of the PV triggered by a SSW beyond mid month is a distinct possibility based on the history of westerly QBO seasons that have occurred near solar max, and this is precisely what took place. Note the displacement of the PV in concert with the warming polar stratosphere that had already begun prior to mid month. The event continued to evolve until a reversal of the zonal winds occurred around March 20th, as suggested by the analogs. The research also suggested that any cold resulting from the PV disruption would be insufficient and/or too late to bias the monthly mean negative and that has also proven correct.

I think the CFS and CANSIPS did best last winter.

Yea...I figured the late SSW would manifest in April, which is why I wasn't opptimistic about March....too little too late. Same thing happened in 2000.

Consensus is currently for cool-neutral ENSO conditions, but I'm thinking warm neutral or perhaps even weak El Nino.

32" isn't the futility record for me.

Just noticed that there is a slight glaze on the rain gage and the bushes. 32.0

Glaze can't be far off....31.6

32.0

T for the month....Booingggg

Nearly moderate snow....decent growth

Snow in SW CT while ray rains Winter

32.5 Inching downward with flurries

Yea, I don't expect it to last...decent growth.