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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I would have said that on March 6, 2001. Anafraud is never a wise investment unless you live on the windward slope of Mt. Dearclit.
  2. "Over the tree, off of grand ma's butt, behind the front, off of the backboard, nothing but net".
  3. Yea, but I think we will maintain some poleward ridging, so latitude may help, as opposed to a wall-to-wall inferno.
  4. I think its important to be remain mindful of the bias while still utilizing discretion to determine when it may be at play...for instance, I wasn't suprised to see it doing that in December, but IMHO, its a tougher sell to assume its again in error as we approach the new year. Possible, but the analog data suggests otherwise...perhaps it will prove too aggressive....
  5. I hear you...I already said as much, though at least I didn't expect any more where I am.
  6. I thought I recalled you explicitly saying that you kept to within two weeks...or maybe it was two week increments? Anyway, point being all we can do is use data as a tool to either lend support to or illustrate potential alternatives to informed expectation.
  7. I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.
  8. Better for some...this one trended worse for you and it was all moot for me.
  9. The only options are to be Bluewave...god love him and how brilliant he is, but refrains from issuing a forecast beyond 2 weeks out....or to do a copious amount of research and hope to have long range guidance bare some similarities to the expectations based upon said research...that, to me, is different from blindly hugging a desired outcome. Long range forecasts are inherently prone to a large degree of error...no way around that.
  10. Don, what is the alternative? Refrain from long range forecasting?
  11. Looks like its picking up on the -WPO/EPO that should be predominate next month.
  12. Storm must have slipped a bit south of modeling.
  13. I had .16" in the gage and a a .01" coating. Jealous?
  14. Maybe some do? Others may move? We just don't know? Anything is possible?
  15. Some of the guidance hinted at the best lift going south and looks like it did. I would have been pissed if it had mattered.
  16. More like a branch....its the Charlie Brown xmas tree.
  17. Definitiely should have been a little more aggressive over the higher terrain of W NE, but it takes very anomalous conditions to scrore big of east of I 495 in early December....hedged that correctly.
  18. Yea, Janaury 7th is the only reason I'm not in a straight jacket.
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