40/70 Benchmark

Its not another winter of getting stood up by the cold until Brooklyn posts an animation.

Gonna be a race to get the lower bounds of my +3 to +5 forecast for December, but I think we can do it.

80s into the early 90s featured a notable dearth of high latitude blocking....the present day struggles are more an issue of a consistently hostile Pacific....sensible result was similar, albeit colder back then due to CC.

Yes, I was focusing on the second half of the season, but that is absolutely true.

I think you mean January 1994...

I'm not expecting much until January...if we happen to luck out holiday week, awesome.

That season had a huge SSW that would have produced for the coast had the immense RNA been slightly less anomalous....so while it didn't work out, it isn't like it was March 1998. That season is a great example of why the +QBO/La Nina couplet doesn't necessarily mean an automatic strong PV from start to finish.

My money on skunked this month, but I supposed we could try to sneak something the final week of the year.

Doesn't look so....

Guidance is going to rush that...I wouldn't hold your breath until after the New Year.

Yea, I think there was a solid consensus on a cold start....no shock there. Now, if the month were to finish with a negative departure, then different story.

Another 1/2" after Thursday's 1/2" makes 1" on the season.

I'm not sure why La Nina has to automatically mean relentless blowtorch from latter January through March...I don't think that will be the case.

I said the month would start cold.

Ended up with 1/2".

.03" S- 30

@Allsnowis a quality, objective poster. Must read.

Much Milder Balance of December Before Potential Holiday Week Changes Winter 2024-2025 Thoughts on Track Warmer December Transition Marked by Light Weekend Snows It was conveyed in last month's Winter Outlook that the cold start to the month of December would likely be on borrowed time. "The colder pattern looks to be fleeting, as the month of December should turn very mild in short order with the passage of the MJO in phase 4. The mild regime should remain in place until at the very least mid month". While this concept does indeed still look to be valid, it will be a round of light snowfall that will actually herald in this transition to the warmer regime, as an added twist of irony. Snow will be of the nuisance variety with the potential for an inch to two of snowfall in the Worcester hills, and up to perhaps as much as 3" in the Berkshires. Accumulations across the rest of the region should be relegated to an inch or less, and any snow will melt quickly, thereafter given the imminent pattern change. The aforementioned light snowfall is obviously inconsequential as it pertains to longer term ramifications for the month of December and onward towards the New Year. Balance of December Update Although variability was anticipated to be the theme of December, the magnitude and length of the warmer interlude that will extend well beyond mid month was expected to outweigh the cold start, and that is precisely how the month appears to be evolving. Notice that December 1999, one of the milder members of the December forecast composite, is being reflected in the CPC forecast centered on December 14. This warmer shift, as earlier implied, is triggered at least in part by the translation of the MJO wave through phase 5 in the Maritime continent. These changes are reflected most prominently by the erosion of the North Pacific block, as evidenced by the precipitous and sudden rise in both the West Pacific and East Pacific Oscillation. It is also evinced by the recovery of the polar domain. As one would expect, this much mass flux will be accompanied by a significant storm system on Tuesday, however, it will be essentially all rainfall throughout southern New England with some snowfall possible across the ski resorts of northern New England. Thereafter, warmth should continue to prevail across much of the country through the holiday week, as the MJO eventually enters phase 6. What happens towards the end of the holiday week and in the vicinity of the New Year is what is somewhat more nebulous. New Pattern for New Year Possible The GFS suite continues to indicate that the MJO will advance into phase 7 prior to the New Year. However, other guidance hints of the possible decay of the MJO wave prior to reaching phase 7. This is crucial since phase 7 of the MJO in early January would imply a major transition to a colder pattern, marked by the redevelopment of poleward north Pacific ridging. Most long range guidance supports the aforementioned redevelopment of poleward ridging over the North Pacific and adjacent west coast, in conjunction with a strong polar vortex that is tilted favorably as to allow for the delivery of cold air over the northeastern US. This is a scenario that is very similar to the type of mismatch from the predominate MC forcing that took place in January 2022, which was cited in the Winter Outlook is a strong analog for January 2025. Note the similarity to the forecast progression of the MJO to its behavior from December 2021 into January 2022, implying a generally similar evolution, albeit potentially delayed and somewhat subdued. In conclusion, although the progression of the MJO wave into phase 7 for the onset of January may be slightly rushed on the GFS suite of guidance, it is unlikely to stagnate in the MC and should indeed reach the West Pacific and trigger a colder pattern beyond the new year.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/much-milder-balance-of-december-before.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/much-milder-balance-of-december-before.html

Huge -WPO.

Maybe postpone the larger Funky's Deal for now and focus on a Clarke's gtg?

Henry's Weather will have to wait? Maybe, kinda? Can always change?? Keep asking questions until she's cute?

I can see it getting delayed some, but largely buy.

"As it approached midday, the snow deph reached the high end of thy stocking with drifts approaching mid scrotum"-