Yea, the Xmas week potental to me is akin to a NESN article from the interest Kings...."We are really interested in snowing Xmas week"....."snow is in the mix"......"a wintry outcome is making a competeitive bid to get within 50 miles of the coast". Rest assured, the next and final update will be when you look out your window and see puddles and the only consolation is pictures of @powderfreak's Mansfield stake with a mistletoe on top.
I was just looking at 00z.
Yea, I have no issue with the longwave pattern...but good luck with the lack of antecedent airmass and SSTs near 50*. This is why I am saying the ceiling here is a rt 128 type of storm. That has real December 1996 vibes.
This is what I was just noticing...made some comments over in Tip's thread. This is going to be a tedious needle-threader....the ceiling is probably a theramal field a akin to last January, or early Feb 2021....the coast is going to struggle, regardless. This would be more doable for the coast a month or two from now.
We could also just luck out given the placement of that ridge out west, despite the hostile polar fields....ensembles have that vibe....EPS and GEFS. Interesting to watch. Trough placement may make it tough to hug too much, despite the look up north.
For all of the mocking of the NAO out of deference to the Pacific over the course of the last several years, this sequence is an illustration of the value of the NAO. That EURO OP output looks primed to bury upstate NY to me. Would be nice to lodge that PV a bit closer to Hudson Bay, as opposed to directly centered over Greeland...pretty hostile polar look there. The EPS is a little better.
I realize OP runs are futile right now....just looking.
That ridge is ideally placed out west.....only thing I don't love is a ridge also INVO 50/50....risks abound as far as track, but I understand the emphasis right now is on just sustaining a coherent storm signal. This storm today is precisely the type event that we usually get around xmas, so maybe somewhat of a different sequencing this year...we hope.
Yes, I cleaned up in March 2018...agreed.
Agreed on everything....I still think January deviates from that, but if I am wrong, I'll try to learn from why.
Yea, once the pattern went to shit lol...congrats to me on being the meteorological slum lord of SNE. Usually in no-man's land, though...bent over by your area last decade, not HubbDave to Dendrite this decade.
Getting 40" instead of 30" in a season does nothing for me...I'd rather not take the 12" dong to the face while everyone around me gets 2', but that's just me.