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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Figured it would lose the bomb, which is my only shot.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully we can string a couple of big deterministic solutions in a role at 00z...
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe that is the reason for the unexpected -AO/NAO....interesting.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh...so I was right about the very strong PV in January...but the fact that its decoupled is killing my forecast for +AO/NAO. More palatable error IMO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could you emphasize?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    GEFS actually a little worse than 12z....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lines up better with my outlook, too.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but like I said....trumps 1978..just cuts off a bit later.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That trumps 1978.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm pleased. GEFS should look good.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, if you have one, then they are all C section...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't love the low over se Canada.....what is up with that lack of +pp? All we hear about is this arctic wasteland pattern ensuing....then we get the bomb solution, and poof....
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you don't have wife recovering from a 4th c section, 5, 3, 1yo and infant. All set without power at baseline...but now? Fuc( that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you''re right with that being the apex solution, which is good because R/S line is like 70mi away.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    990mb to 971mb in 6 hours..that would rip some toupees off.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is so correctable...phase it like 6 hours later-
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do TBH.....I would rather see that than the cut off hanging out with @raindancewx I will go out on a limb and say the GEFS mean will be east of this depiction-
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Certaintly not....need it a bit east.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You should....75? ..
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    TWZ marathon for me.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I'm not saying CC caused the record RNA.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Also, I never meant that every RNA/neg NAO pattern would do that, either....ovviously the individual patterns matter...just that its possible its becoming more prevalent.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is true. But I did see some pretty convincing composites from Bluewave. I guess we will have to see how much this secondary nadir of the Pac cold phase has biased things.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Does anyone need to be convinced that ambient heights are greater now than in the past? Obviously that is going to make adjoining ridges more common. I do agree that extreme cases like 2022 will exaggerate that...
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