40/70 Benchmark

I don't think he is sure, just can't help himself.

I suspect he doesn't really know...

Yea, even with the BD through us....if the boundary gets far enough away, we can still manage decent weather with early September equivalent solar irradiance.

29.7 for the low.

I'm screwed....again. Funny how I am never grouped with those to the north during the winter, when they are frolicking in the snow with stakes up their asses, but I never fail to fit right in with them in April, when they are mired in ass mist for weeks on end.

I the image became visible as a I slowly scrolled up the page and lo and behold, I correctly guessed whom the poster was before the screen name came into sight. Amazing!!

I don't think that is prohibitive of a warm-neutral season or even a weak El Nino...I haven't seen anyone favoring a an even moderately robust warm ENSO.

Oh Yea, I know....ideally the snowfall will workout for an analog generally speaking, but its so variable. 2020-2021 was one of my polar analogs, so I def. agree that there was value to be had using it. It was an exceptional QBO analog. I had a Trace in March...same as Boston.

The important take away is that clearly there is change afoot.

Yea, I get it.......obviously you know that, just saying...

I had normal to plus 2, so I was def. a little too cold....the WPO flip is what did that. Hopefully it helps offset my DJF warm bias

Just eye-balling, I think I landed in my range on 8/15 locales, which would be a new high-water mark....and desperately needed after the past couple of horror-shows. There is obviously luck involved with snowfall because its subject to so much variance...I don't think some of the "poor" forecasts were as bad as the snowfall made them appear, and this seasons's forecast wasn't as good as the snowfall made it appear...kind of like 2014-2015 in that a flawed forecast got "lucky" in that the snowfall was right for the wrong reason. It evens out in the end.

Looks like Worcester may have been my largest miss...followed by Concord, NH.

I'll go over the post-mortem in depth about a month from now, but looks like the snowfall worked out for the most part. The overall forecast def. had issues, though.

I don't think you need an anomaly of that magnitude to produce a milder outcome in NE this time of year.

I'm not basing my stance off of the CANSIPS.

Funny, I share that same feeling...

Reminds me a bit of 2010-2011.....with less NAO and perhaps a better PNA.

This would include some nasty arctic outbreaks.... Quote

That look would defintely offer some colder outbreaks than we had this past year.

It looks similar, but I think it looks better ITVO AK....hopefully its much better for snowfall in SNE, or I'd absolutely lose it.

Snowfall wasn't comparable most of NE.

CANSIPS was by far the best seasomal guidance for this past winter BTW....

Looks more consistent with my early expectation...expect the consensus to roll into this look.