40/70 Benchmark

Its much easier to perpetuate your theory when you keep adjusting concepts predicated on your theory BEFORE an adequate pool of data is in.

Much like I believe snowfall will incease again, I also am of the firm belief that the PDO will spend a great deal more time in the positive phase next decade....and if it doesn't, THEN and only then, is it time to consider a change like that. Not now-

You keep passing off these sweeping judgements, such as the "the long 30 year cycles have become a thing of the past" as if they are fact...they aren't. Its your opnion. Then if an index doesn't fit your agenda, you dismiss it and insert some alternate index. It doesn't work that way....I may consider the ONI archaic, but I still factor it in. I just include other metrics to more accurately depict the intensity of modern ENSO events.

I mean in the cold multidecadal phase, not locked into the cold phase, per se. I figured that was tacit. The variation happens in every multidecadal phase....there is alway some oscillation within the larger multidecadal phase. Its never literally in one state for 30 years, however, one phase is perdominant dependent on the longer term, multidecadal trend.

I didn't say that. Its too early....I haven't started on next winter yet. I was just making a point.

Right...and many think its too early to be discussing some of the longer term shifts that you dicuss, yet here we are. I still believe that its more likely that the Pacific is switching phases, given than the current cold phase began in 1998, than it is that we have crossed some crucial "tipping point" threshold with respect to CC. Keep in mind that I am not discounting the latter as a viable possibility, either. And just because I feel that the change may be underway doesn't mean I expect a 2.00+ seasonally PDO next winter, either.

I don't calculate them, I just read them.

But many of these points assume that the multidecadal Pacific state isn't changing and I'm not sure that that is the case. We can also consider the record +PNA February that 2025 overtook, which was 2000....the following winter was pretty good.

We definitely have.

That's what @Stormchaserchuck1 said....that should change to an extent as we near the solar min in a few years.

I think some spots go higher than that.

Somewhere in there is a bit of irony when considering the average amount of time you put into the most quotidian of responses on this forum. Anyway, perhaps there is a bit of sarcasm at play, but I am of the option that the larger scale Pacific pattern is in a state of flux, so I'm not at all confident its gong to be very warm relative to the latest 30 year climo period.

I think last season may have been a transition year out of the very hostile cold Pacific phase, so we saw some mixed elements, or "competing forces", as you articulated it. I have a feeling next year is pretty good, but far too early to hold me to that. I know you are skeptical and why....

Yes, I think assigning an intensity to ENSO using solely ONI has always been a rather crude practice, but CC has made it absolutely imperative to assume a more eclectic approach. ENSO is very complex and multifaceted, and a warming planet is only going to serve to make it more complex, as the essence of ENSO is an anomaly RELATIVE to the ambient ocean/atmsphere.

Yea, even during the winter, the north shore can be more prone to marine influence than the south shore at times due to the orientation of the coastline.... the poster Bostonwx from Milton was notorious for pointing that out lol

Yea, my early hedge RE next year is optimism. I was at no point optimistic about last year, even though it ended up a little colder than I had thought...snowfall was about as expected.

I often come out of work in Chelsea to like 60 and get home to 80....yesetrday was a good example. I'm just down the street from KBOS.

Lets get a pocket of fog over Weymouth

Me neither.

39

I do, although sometimes I will reference a more anecdotal note such as a "triple dip la Nina" composite, etc....I remember I lead with that for the 2021-2022 season, but its by no means the basis of the forecast...that would be silly. Agreed. I include that more for just "$hits and giggles"....but I will refer back to it my seasonal work leads to a similar result.

Weaker ENSO is coldest because it affords more opportunity for a colder outcome due to the increased reliance on extra tropical forces, but they absolutely can be warm...its more of an issue of how UNLIKELY very strong ENSO regimes are to be cold.

Well, you have been west of the predominate storm track the past several years.

1990-1991 wasn't even a cold winter.

Not sure @bluewavewould agree...