40/70 Benchmark

Beyond tonight's light snowfall that is now underway, a big storm this weekend is unlikely, however, that does not necessarily mean no snow whatsoever. More on that later this week if necessary. Some disagreement concerning a warm up next week, but I happen to be on the somewhat warm train for reasons discussed. Now the question that begs to be asked...is winter done? I do not think so, but I do believe that the harsh arctic air is done. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/close-call-presidents-day-with-warm-up.html

All northern stream.

The EURO sends the MJO more onto the COD, whereas other guidance enters the MC....going to do a write up soon about the favored option.

Yes, but that was because of confluence...it was a potent wave. This is different because it's just a weak northern streamer coming out of Canada.

Great, get the plows ready in Tolland.

Okay, I was only looking up here.

I thought HRRR pounded north shore last event? Must have been in the big one, then.

Yup....NW to se above our latitude...usually not a recipe for taking the over on snowfall...said that all along, regardless of what guidance implied.

Last storm.

Makes it seem pretty perilous for those dog lovers that pinned heavier hopes to the mesos.

I honestly hope tonight underperforms.....it's just at a nightmare of a time. Just get me a big un or get out of my life winter, thanks.

Ginx would love that.

Yes, I'm aware 12/26 crushed you.

Yea, I thought about 2-4", but at the end of the day, I think 4" is pretty isolated.

I'm really not surprised given the MJO....SWFE dearth I am.

You'd hope for more than 1 warning event, though.

No was that s stream is getting up here on the GFS.

I've seen some tropical cyclones due that post landfall...bout it.

06z EPS definitely looks better poised than 00z to come up the coast. Slightly less ridging in the plains helps.

Arctic air certainly provides margin for error...the great equalizer.

I sense an aptitude deficit...you would think Cornell would have better prepared you.

I don't think March will be warm, but we'll see. I agree we are going to warm up beforehand, though.

Yea, goes both ways, too.....fast flow, MJO...I get it, but none of those are prohibitive in an ABSOLUTE sense, so we also could have more go right on the coast, too.

The Typhoon Tip of homosapiens?

It's been a good winter IMO. Normalish snowfall and well below normal temps. It's left plenty on the table, which is frustrating, but it's been nice overall.