40/70 Benchmark

I don't think February is going to be excessively warm like 2018.

Pretty strong Hi NE of ME, albeit weakening/retreating....

Just glancing at the 12z EURO suite....looks like SWFE NYE, great coastal Jan 2 and then maybe something with a sharper N cut off INVO Jan 5.

Keep in mind that I'm not expecting that yet....just speaking of that model run. I won't be surprised if its a flurry or broken overcast.

How much did you end up with?

I'd take that...at least an inch, maybe 2" with good ratios...

That particular phenomenon is more viable at your latitude.

We 7/10 split Xmas in classic Methuen style...too far north, then south.

7.7 for the low. Ironic how the fresh, pure scent of arctic air is so inviting, yet it bites fiercely....

Yea, that is one theme that surfaced in my seasonal work last month....lower heights more centrally focused as opposed to being pinned to the west coast like 2022. My timing has been a bit wonky, though...a sin that is more forgivable on a seasonal scale.

Yea, and I even tagged him in a post imploring comment....crickets.

Good stuff, John...thanks. Always learn something from your posts.

11.5

Verification of Friday Snows Poorly Prepared Forecast Missed Heavier Coastal Band The clipper system that moved through during the day on Friday proved to be quite the challenge for forecast guidance, as there were uncharacteristically large shifts until essentially the snow actually began to fall. There were two main aspects that guidance struggled to grasp: 1) Just how close the developing coastal system would track to the coast and just how fast it would develop. This obviously had large ramifications with respect to how far inland the burgeoning precipitation shield would make it and how intense it would be. 2) The precise placement of an ocean enhanced band of snowfall that was triggered by an onshore fetch out ahead of the storm system itself. Obviously a capricious forecast of this nature with mesoscale features such as ocean enhanced snowfall required immense attention to detail until the final moment, which is a commitment that this writer was ill prepared to make with the holidays fast approaching and the assumed paltry magnitude of the approaching system. Thus there was never a Final update issued as is usually the case, which likely would have at least somewhat reflected of a track slightly closer to the coast, along with the potential for more moderate snowfall within the ocean enhanced snow near the coast. The implication of this is that the issued forecast missed the 1-3" of snowfall that fell over cape cod and the islands, as well as extreme southeastern Massachusetts due to the slightly closer track and faster development of the storm, which maintained enough lift to transition rainfall to snow before exiting. The forecast also failed to account for the 3-6"+ of snowfall that fell within the coastal band, which something that guidance began to signal Thursday night and Friday morning, albeit struggling with its placement. The forecast clearly lacked the nuanced detail that was required given the mesoscale nature of the snowfall near the coast, however, snowfall amounts were fairly well forecast over the majority of the area. The forecast would clearly have been better served to have been updated to reflect a band of 3-6"+ along the immediate north shore and into the Boston area, as well as a 1-3" area over the cape and islands. Final Grade: D

Forecast for Friday missed the 3-6"+ enhanced area along the north shore and into Boston, as well as the 1-3" over the cape and islands. Just didn't have the time or will to update the original map as the forecast shifted late in the game, but it is what it is. Final Grade: D https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/verification-of-friday-snows.html

I don't need or expect a jackpot...all I ask is not be an island of 10" within a sea of 20".

Very vaguely...one of my earliest memories. I know my area actually got in the CF band, though and had around 20".

Anyway, I am just going off of what I have read online....I haven't looked at January since my outlook. Gonna start to look at it for myself this week.

There aren't many Miller As that I love....probably the Megalopolis storm of Feb 1983 and that is about it-

Yep....I agree that any SNE weenie should love the comparison, but I'm CNE TBH......

+1/2" for 1.5" on the season.

I'd just assume take my chances with a marginal airmass and a less than ideal overall set up...I do best with a little ugly, like Kev and chicks.

This is why I am paranoid about having arctic molasses over se Canada.....because unless I get under the mid level deformation, it's going to pin low level fronto to the coast and pork the ever living shit out of me yet again. It sounds absurd to worry about mesoscale shit at this juncture, but in my area it's like clock work and you can predict it well given some of these modeled set ups. The concern is two-fold....getting the precipitation up this far north, which Jan 96 struggled with (Jan 16 failed to do)...and not having the subsidence due to the arctic induced OES enhancement...a la Dec 2003, PD II and Jan 2022.

Like 5-7" of sand....about 10 miles south of me had 18"+. I was in Wilmington then, thankfully and was great there. But I am speaking from a Methuen POV.