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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fair enough. Yes, the active jet has been a probelm the past several years. Agreed.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that is breaking news or anything new...I know you disagree and that is fine. But there have been cold winters that didn't feature much snowfall in the past. I'm sure you are going to point out differences with respect to the Pacific jet......I don't argue that perhaps CC make us more susecptible to that, but its going to take many years of data for me to conclude that this will be the rule moving forward.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I never expect this late SSW to mean much for the east coast, except for a potentially shitty early spring.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its so granular it looks like beach sand.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I only due DM forecasts, but a cooler April certainly wouldn't shock me given the later nature of this SSW.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stay safe, Phil.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah....I'm checked out.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too late....useless.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gusts have to be 50mph, dude. Man, that fall broke you.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree....I instinctively downplay wind, but its pretty nasty today and I can't imagine its much different in N Billerica.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its everywhere....even larger bins just lining streets. I pick up what I can as it eneters the yard.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    My neighborhhood is awful for that...always trash blowing around. Idiots don't know how to store is securely.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was pretty legit. @Damage In TollandThe one thing about the wind that you must hate is other folks' trash blowing into your yard...I know you are a neat freak. I am not, but that drives me insane.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    You would think one of those kicker lows would impact a GL cutter.... I think some of that is cyclical....natural variation, but I don't doubt that the active PAC jet periods are more pronounced than they used to be.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    March 2023 was brutal for me...I called for a SSW and a big March that year and was ready to spike the football, and the 30" of snowfell fell like 15 miles west of me The RNA was just too overwhelming. I ended up with several inches of slush and it torpedoed my whole seasonal outlook. I know you don't entirely agree, but I slightly cleaner redevelopment would have ended differently. Great discussion between you and Chuck.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we need to be just about at solar min to have a prayer of a -NAO winter season per the calculation....although I know there are other more practical metrics, such as the Greenland blocking index that Chris prefers. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.mon.data EDIT: Link doesn't seem to be working...perhaps Chris knows what is up with that...
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    January 2021 was another month in which it didn't look bad on paper per the CPC PNA index, but any higher heights out west were off of the coast, so it was ineffective practically speaking.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still have a couple of inches, but its getting ragged.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we were both lock-step with respect to the NAO...I remember I calculed a mean from my polar analogs and your calculation ended up within like .02 of it lol I may pull the trigger next year.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would just drop it...its like trying to convince a MAGA to vote democrat.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nookie cookie on the weekend?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I haven't researched it, but I'll take your word for it. Here is the apex of the -AO
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think has always been pretty common in cool ENSO Feb.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this was a different Pacific paradigm...the one common denominator, as Chris pointed out, was the fast jet that inhibited phasing....unless of course it was over the midwest or Atlantic.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....precisely. If we have an El Nino, 2014-2015 will be an upper tier analog for me....but just as we saw with the 2013 analog this season, snowfall is highly variable. That was a great analog in hindsight, but that doesn't mean snowfall will work out...this is especially true with respect to an analog that featured highly anomalous snowfall, like 2014-2015. I would expect it to be much snowier than this season for the north mid atl and S/CNE, though.
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