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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know Chris was not in this camp, but I remeber when a large contigent of folks were theorizing that the favorable extra tropical Pacific last decade was a semi-permanent change due to CC, too.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't understand how waiting for more data and a larger sample can be wrong.... I don't disagree regarding what has been happening, but I think any implications concerning the future, aside from general warming, need to be tempered for now.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this also plays into the pattern, which has sucked for the past 8 years or so. I understand that although you won't admit it, you strongly hedge towards this being permanent. I am not there yet. We will find out in a few years.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anyone entirely understands the factors that determine how impressive the cold source becomes for a given season...while we can be sure that the trend is for it to become less impressive, its not a perfectly linear progression, so any given year moving forward may have a more impressive reservoir to tap.....though clearly the odds diminsh with time.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay....so the earth is warming. Thanks for the striking revelation. My point is that while a relica Feb 2015 pattern wouldn't be as cold as it was then, it would still be much colder than this past January. I get the impression that you think that it would be similar to this past January and I have to disagree. The PNA (west-biased) and WPO were ideal for cold delivery to the NE US that season....last year they were not.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is precisely what I have been saying....the persistent +WPO is a byproduct of the west Pac heatwave.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand what you are disagreeing with....if getting cold into the northeast is becoming more difficult, but admittedly not impossible, then how on earth do you contest the notion that the pattern has has some influence independent of the background warming?? Makes zero sense.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    2021-2022 was the only -WPO winter since 2016-2017.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, February 2015 had an immaculate Pacific pattern. I didn't say that the size of the cold pool doesn't matter...I said its BOTH, the pattern and the size of the cold pool. You seem to struggle to accept that.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh....I may gave a quick rub n tug...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Must be CC.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This would have been an awesome event in winter....I would have had 20", while Scooter had 5" of slush. Dendrite would have had a 30" deform band.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    To me there is a difference between cloudy with showers, and pouring rains with 50mph gusts, but yea...neither day is particularly conducive to rounds of naked corn hole....no.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think today is worst, and slow climb starting tomorrow.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, absolutely....even Boston would have some issues.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Except a -PDO and cool ENSO
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This system would have crushed interior SNE, including my area.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    SNE did significantly better in the former....near average snowfall in 2016-2017.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    May have some of that with the weenie out and all...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think there is enough booze to make the past 7 years palatable.
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