40/70 Benchmark

I know..imagine if someone showed a map of a blizzard 15 days out and exclaimed "alas, the snow drought is over"

CANSIPS actually had the best seasonal forecast in terms of the pattern...I recal it was consistently the coldest guidance.

Same page on much of this..in fact, I was thinking of the phase switch of the mid to late 70s just yesterday. Great job on the 2013 analog BTW....the snowfall was certainly far less in the NE, but that is a crap shoot. I didn't see your maps, but I am guessing that you had the cold se idea that everyone missed. I def. factored that season in, but clearly not heavily enough since I was too warm. I expected a cold stretch mid season, but December and February were colder than I thought. La Nina was marginal...I can see a case either way...but bottom line is that it was weaker, and weak events have greater variance, obviously. My idea concerning the ultimate intensity and orientation of La Nina worked out very well.

I could certainly see ENSO neutral.

Well, I was referring to where we live.

No way!!

Agree.

Of course, the one that counted tracked over Lowell...

That't the date I mentioned yesterday....7th anniversary special?

Yea, its goes in a cycles. Of course for a while last decade, every sea gull queef got funneled over the BM.

49.1 Hit 50 earlier.

I have to be honest....I was wondering last decade if CC was't INCREASING our climo snowfall here in SNE. I never said that because there wasn't near enough data, and now we see why.

Yea, that has always happened and always will. That said, CC certainly isn't making it easier to avoid.

Its been a little of everything....CC has definietely played a role..there have been some marginal events in which we may have fared better 20 years ago, or maybe some near phases that would have phased better back when with less compression. But its also been to a larger degree just some poor multidecadal signals combining with buzzard's luck....that's called regression from the insane 2010's.

Only cold by modern standards, but yea..... Chris glossed over that point by saying it was the expected deviation from MC forcing....I also predicted one this season, as well....but it wasn't a deviation, it was a departure. It wasn't a month or 6 weeks....it was just about all of the season.

If you look back throughout peak of post Pacific cold phases....there have been similar stretches. 1950s had a spell like that.

My interpretation is that its just made that N Jet so active that it impedes proficient phasing, but if I'm wrong...he can chime in.

@AllsnowI like your stance on his...you buy a lot of it, but just don't take the leap that its permanent...more conservative approach. That is my position.

Already is.....his response time is faster now that OT is closed. Now look what we've done.

I wish you didn't tag and summon him...now its going to turn into the CC forum.

"This same pattern would have produced 25" more snow in NYC 25 years ago".

I know...then after a spell of back and forth he will eventually admit that he is "open to new data". Problem is that he has it backwards....assume it will change and be "open to new data" indicating that it won't after a couple of decades.

Forky said it earlier...the West Pac being so warm is what is sending along so many impulses, which presumably is attributable to why the northern stream is so disruptive.

My guess is that they will reference a trend this week that moves the low from Binghamton to Albany, and say "see, it attenuated".