40/70 Benchmark

Yea, February 2015 had an immaculate Pacific pattern. I didn't say that the size of the cold pool doesn't matter...I said its BOTH, the pattern and the size of the cold pool. You seem to struggle to accept that.

Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.

Eh....I may gave a quick rub n tug...

Must be CC.

This would have been an awesome event in winter....I would have had 20", while Scooter had 5" of slush. Dendrite would have had a 30" deform band.

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

To me there is a difference between cloudy with showers, and pouring rains with 50mph gusts, but yea...neither day is particularly conducive to rounds of naked corn hole....no.

I think today is worst, and slow climb starting tomorrow.

Yes, absolutely....even Boston would have some issues.

Except a -PDO and cool ENSO

This system would have crushed interior SNE, including my area.

SNE did significantly better in the former....near average snowfall in 2016-2017.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html

May have some of that with the weenie out and all...

I don't think there is enough booze to make the past 7 years palatable.

Keep in mind when I say "weak El Nino", that is a broad, general classification of the protptypical weak El Nino paradigm....once we actually get into the season, I will dig in more...obviously if we still have a Pacific cold phase/-RONI, then it probably wouldn't work. I incorporate all of that later in the fall. Yea, 2018-2019 was a tough one...I went big that season, but the early Jan SSW (focused on other side of globe) just served to lock the residual MC forcing from prior cool ENSO into place. This was also evident by the very paltry mid season MEI. El Nino wasn't running the show.

Interesting that the Euro and Aussie have a warm neutral.....hasn't the EURO been running hot for ENSO?

Unfortunately.

"The weight doesn't bother me, she has a pretty face and a beautiful heart"

Rise and shine, Allison

I would still prefer a more meager El Nino....I am far enough north where I still want a good deal of N steam involvement, or it ends up occluded after a mid atl snowmaggedon.

I think given (potentially) ENSO neutral this coming season, you have weight things towards modest cool ENSO.

We need to cool off the west Pac....or at least relative to the east Pac...the ratio right now (warmer west/cool east) predisposes us to a cool ENSO paradigm...that is why we have been having problems on the east coast due to se ridges and strong jets obliterating PNA ridges. That is cool ENSO like. I think we actually agree on alot, but just emphasize different aspects and drivers.

Man, @bluewave that link is an absolute pants tent.....you always casually pull these elite data sources out of your rear...too bad you never use your power for good, instead of in support of trying to convince us all that the Pacfic Jet is about to eat us.