40/70 Benchmark

Keep in mind when I say "weak El Nino", that is a broad, general classification of the protptypical weak El Nino paradigm....once we actually get into the season, I will dig in more...obviously if we still have a Pacific cold phase/-RONI, then it probably wouldn't work. I incorporate all of that later in the fall. Yea, 2018-2019 was a tough one...I went big that season, but the early Jan SSW (focused on other side of globe) just served to lock the residual MC forcing from prior cool ENSO into place. This was also evident by the very paltry mid season MEI. El Nino wasn't running the show.

Interesting that the Euro and Aussie have a warm neutral.....hasn't the EURO been running hot for ENSO?

Unfortunately.

"The weight doesn't bother me, she has a pretty face and a beautiful heart"

Rise and shine, Allison

I would still prefer a more meager El Nino....I am far enough north where I still want a good deal of N steam involvement, or it ends up occluded after a mid atl snowmaggedon.

I think given (potentially) ENSO neutral this coming season, you have weight things towards modest cool ENSO.

We need to cool off the west Pac....or at least relative to the east Pac...the ratio right now (warmer west/cool east) predisposes us to a cool ENSO paradigm...that is why we have been having problems on the east coast due to se ridges and strong jets obliterating PNA ridges. That is cool ENSO like. I think we actually agree on alot, but just emphasize different aspects and drivers.

Man, @bluewave that link is an absolute pants tent.....you always casually pull these elite data sources out of your rear...too bad you never use your power for good, instead of in support of trying to convince us all that the Pacfic Jet is about to eat us.

The reality is that more often than not, there is a flaw in the pattern that will prevent a major snowstorm on the east coast...that is why averages are not higher. Its not always attributable to CC, but obviously that is becoming more of a factor. There are also times when nothing is ostensibly "wrong" with the pattern and it turns out that an act of god simply wasn't on the calendar....that can happen, too....this is why snowfall is subject to such a large degree of variance and is so difficult to predict. Mother nature is not bound by any of our rules...if she doesn't want to play ball, then she simply won't- Sometimes the reason why is apparent, other times not so much.

First of all, in the mean the WPO was very positive last season...that can't be dismissed. Secondly, the NAO was very positive througout February....thirdly, even during any brief instances during which the WPO and NAO were favorable, the PNA ridge was OFF of the west coast. Sorry, that wouldn't work in 1925, either. 2013-2014 had a vastly different Western Pacific...very +WPO. Now, that maybe linked to the strong Pac jet, so maybe we aren't in as stark disagreement as it may appear. PS: Thanks for the link!

2006-2007 moderate El Nino...also with -PDO like 2023-2024 and 1972-1973.

I guess I agree with him that the recent -NAO/+PNA periods haven't been producing, but I'm not sure he agrees with me that a flip in the WPO would largely remedy that...aside from some marginal events that are growing ever more difficult to tilt favorably in a warmer atmosphere. However, I think the storm track issue is largely tied to the +WPO/NAO. IOW, I'm confident we will get BM tracks if we could muster a -WPO/-NAO/+PNA.

One thing I am 100% with @bluewave on is that the west PAC holds the key to change.....we aren't going to see a great winter until that changes. But the ironic thing is that he points that out, and then in the same breath identifies past instances of -NAO/+PNA that peformed better to illustrate the point that fruitful patterns of the past are no longer producing. Well, no shit.....they were more favorable looking around the Bering Sea. Low heights in that area are killing us....it remained a constant last season, which in conjunction with the predominately +NAO is why we saw an inland storm track. I think the West Pacific warmth correlates to +WPO...we need to see that cool down, or else it really limits how effective any periods of -NAO/+PNA can be.

Wait until we near solar min and swtich back to Pac cold phse in several more years.....get an apprciably strong Modoki El Nino and we'll do just fine.

It depends on the polar domain.........I don't think we will get a lot of help there, so we'd have to hope that the extra tropical Pacific continues to transition. You probably have more leeway than the east coast, but even you would want to see a -WPO take shape.

2015-2016 was the strongest El Nino on record and 2023-2024 was during a strong cold phase PDO....this is a silly statement. Now, if you want to tell me that 2023-2024 was so much warmer than 1972-1973, and 2015-2016 than 1997-1998 due to CC, okay....but don't compare two entirely different type of El Nino evolutions. Its a lazy, ill informed approach.

Great, the climatechanger and Bluewave taking over the ENSO thread.....stand by for mass suicide attempts.

There is a lot more variance in relation to the impact of volcanic eruptions that folks realize.....depends where they are and how strong. The very strong PV of the early 90s was likely a byproduct of Pinatubo.

I agree with this.

Eh....from your area to NNE, yes....I hope to break even...def. bad for those south of me.

Clearly I understand that...I wasn't implying anything about snowfall. I simply questioned the idea that a warmer climate wouldn't lead to an increase in mositure.

I tought the same....feels like October...only reason you can tell it isn't is the Sox are playing today.

The bussiness is all her, man...I just funded it.

I turned my central air on once for a few hours on Friday night...that's it for the seasn so far.