40/70 Benchmark

Probably...

Well, apparently I need divine intervention for snow in December because the cold didn't work very well.

Where is @bluewavewith that boiling SST plot of the West Pacific when I need him.

I will bet anything February is a respectable month for me snowfall wise.....at least near average and probably better.

100% literally, they were better for me....I had a 19" event one year ago...Dec 2022 I narrowly missed a huge one right before Xmas if not for a polar beer queen sending the PV to phase too far west....January 2023 was active with reasonable snowfall, and in March 2023 I JUST missed another huge event due to bizarre nipple low delaying a transfer. I would take those past 2 winters X100 over this cold, dry, cracked rusty, back alley coat hanger of a season.

I think I liked phase 5 better-

Honestly, the only reason I didn't start the thread at the precise hour that he did is because it slipped my mind...if you look, I made my "its coming" blog post on Monday night right as he was starting the thread. What can I say....it didn't work out. 9/10 when you get a unanimous trend like that among guidance at day 4, it doesn't reverse, but in this case it did. The added bonus was the N steam also shit the bed, so we don't have to deal with the near miss, 3 " on the s shore BS.

I think February will be decent in terms of snowfall....expecting a good, 'ole fashioned overunning/SWFE type of pattern with a cold Canada...not saying December 2007 or anything.....but should be some plowable snowfall.

Ohhhh nooooooes....Not that! We really need some snow...

Some hints of a Modoki El Niño next year...and with +NAO growing more likely due to descending solar, maybe we'll finally have a decent season here.

Did you specifically call for December to be the mismatch month? I remember the mismatch posts not really specifying a particular month...ie seasonal forecast. I ended up focusing on January, but obviously it ended up including December, too.

Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA.

Yea, I am all set with the +PNA/-NAO stretch for awhile....pre season, I called for milder, RNA Feb, but not the prohibitively warm type...IE overrunning and SWFE, which can be a good pattern for me.

Honestly...with 2" on the season here on the NH border in N Mass, I am ready to take a Stab at that pattern....it won't be any less snowy and if I get porked with snowfall again, at least it will be warmer.

How is your call for a incredibly warm winter going? I think most would agree that I have no issue owning a wrong forecast (or hedge), so I'm not sure what your point is. I think my seasonal idea looks pretty good.

I remember the Cape being forecast to be hit the hardest in 2005....2015 they didn't get as much as the mainland, though I'm sure the conditions were fierce.

Good. Keep the cirrus at bay.

Honestly, bring it on. There is zero value in this....if isn't going to snow, warm it up.

I don't give a rat's ass.

I got that beat.... 2018: -15.5" 2019: -19" 2020: -12" 2021: -20.5" 2022: -22.5" 2023: -28.75" 2024: ~ - 20-25", so far...

I keep thinking that it can't get any worse and then....it does. I'm not sure what to even hope for anymore....I've been fuc(ed in every position under the sun with every index mode and ENSO phase known to man, and have rolled snake-eyes.....phase 1, 2, 3 5, 7, 8....fu(k 'em all because there isn't shit that will make it snow in Methuen. You just need to resign yourself to being perpetually tea bagged by Mother Nature or find a new hobby....I don't know, what the hell...I'll start collecting fu(king stamps or some shit.

This the worst start to a season for me snowfall wise through mid January since 2006. Think about that...the -NAO can fuc( RIGHT off. Even some of these recent seasons, as horrible was they were, kept slinging enough precipitation my way that I would end up with respectable, albeit well below average snowfall. This season is quickly challenging 2009-2010 for most skillful, rabbit-out-of-hat way of engineering the least snow imaginable at each and every turn. I never seen anything like that, but it's a page right out of the 1979 playbook. Even 2006 had an abysmal pattern throughout the first half....but this...you can't teach an atmosphere to violate me in ways this bitch has. Unspeakable, unprecedented, unparalleled act of atmospheric sodomy. UNCLE-

Well, I can drive an hour, experience it and come home to a cozy roof, power and 62" average.

IDCARE

No need to look at a model when Kev gets up in 3 hours...just see 3 pages on whether Simbury or Tolland shaft is wider and then log off.