40/70 Benchmark

He had an insight that there tends to be a mismatch period from the prevailing MC forcing when the MJO is amplified in the MC during the month of October, as it was last year.

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicted the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month. I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

My heart weeps for you...

Its much easier to be abrasive online because its a much more impersonal mode of communication.

I don't think anyone would mistake last winter for a "great season"....the storm track still blew dead rats due in large part to the west PAC....I know I have said this before, but I would honestly take one of the warmer/wetter recent winters over last year. 1/7/2024 blew anything I saw last winter out of the water. 2' of snow is still awesome to witness regardless of how quickly it melts....a 6" stale pack just doesn't do as much for me unless its the holidays.

So sorry, John.

Where is this site at?

Not happening. Agreed.

I don't think deriving value from a 12 year old analog and remaining mindful that the world has warmed are mutually exclusive. The sample size is small enough as it is-

The globe has warmed some since 2014....but lets not talk like its some far away galaxy...part of the reason it wasn't as cold is the WPO. I am also willing to bet some deep southern areas were snowier than they were that season...I know many northern areas were not as snowy due to precipitation, not temps...so while obviously a replica season (including -WPO) wouldn't be as cold, nor would said cold be as expansive, I think it could still be as snowy and perahps snowier in some spots.

Beat ya for once lol

I could have sworn 2021-2022 was a mismatch season...interesting that we still managed a mismatch period minus the amplified October MJO....I could certainly see something like that occurring this season. I agree this season will probably be warmer with a more consistently negative PNA, yet still manage more snowfall.

Probably warm ENSO for 2026-2027.

"40/70....I am your father" (breathes heavily)

@bluewaveSeriously, though....I do recall telling you last season that I expected your October MJO indicator to be amplified and favorable and I do expect that again, so we'll see.

I don't want to sound too optimistic because Bluewave will be on my door step.

Yea, I think we will have some servicable stretches...but overall the west-urine pool does of course remain.

@ORH_wxmanWas actually metioning the other day how this year kind of resembles some of the older cool ENSO events in that there is more cooler water near the west coast than in the recent ones.

Jinx. I will add that JMA essentially ENSO neutral, too....slight hedge towards cool ENSO, so the EMI really isn't a big deal, but I would rather have it east all things equal. Yes, snowman...I know how the Pacific looks right now...just speaking of the model.

I think we are going to see some variation and another periood of the season that deviates from the west Pac urine pool.

Not that its a big deal considering La Nina shouldn't be too strong, but JMA seems to imply an east based event along the lines of 2021. Just speaking of La Nina EMI...I do realize that solar is much different and La Nina will be weaker. JMA hovers the EMI around -.3 or so during the winter...which is similar to 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. First of all...no, 1995-1996 is not a seasonal analog, so please spare me Bluewave's wrath (jk....kinda). But signs like this reenforce my early suspicion that this will not be a wall-to-wall death star season.

The season should def. average +NAO...I am just speaking to how favorable or unfavorable it is to steal a -NAO month or two.

Looks like August 2024 was the peak? It takes a couple of years for the solar wind to in increase enough to kick up the geomagnetic particles, which is what is the most hostile for blocking....we may sneak by with one more season that is not awful. "recent studies of seal level pressure patterns that revealed a +NAO pattern lagging solar max by approximately 2-4 years. The work of Maliniemi et al also showed that this relationship is not at all dependent on overall sunspot activity due to intra-cycle variability." Mean winter NAO index values for the four cycle phases, averaged over cycles 11 to 23. The red line represents the overall mean value of wintertime NAO (0.05). Bars represent the 95% confidence interval