40/70 Benchmark

Probably end up another subpar year, but I do not expect a bottom-dweller, either. February will be a "worse" look on paper, but I'll bet it's significantly more prolific in terms of SNE snowfall.

I think we could see a nice stretch late month into February with a string of moderate events...kind of like a poor man's 12/2007 or 2//2014.

Yea...same. More power to those who consider a mood flakes a "snowy day", whether it's genuine or not....I can appreciate the ability to take it as it comes and not grow bitter.

This is precisely the type of winter that I have positively zero use for....cold, nasty, biting wind and dry as a witch's c1It. Yea....please blast a 0* WC into the car seat as I carry my newborn into an appointment, but make sure not to give me any substantive snow to track, while hooking up everywhere else on the east coast. Reminds me of March 2014...equally miserable weather the month I lost my dad. Neat trick-

Do we still have people waiting with bated breath for model output on this?

You know the season sucks when "continued improvement" is followed up by "C-1".

I agree with you on this.. Here are my February thoughts from November: February 2025 Outlook February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972 The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward. The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times. "SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events-

Okay, I know there was some January (2022) and March mismatch periods that were referred to (2018), so I must have missed the post where you hilighted December as the mismatch month. Nice call on that....I thought it would be January.

210 pages for 210 flakes region wide, and half of those flakes are posting in this forum.

You know its bad when Don is broken.

Yes, exactly.

Welcome chanage....I will take a PV tilted se towards NE and a WAR combo, any day..

I think Feb will be sneaky decent with overrunning and SWFEs.

December has been brutal...December 2019 and 2020...that's it...and neither lasted long.

March shit the bed...I was sure I would catch 1996, but end ended up a 1' behind....got like literally nothing in March.

I went back in early November with a peak RONI of -1.2 to -1.4 and a peak MEI of between -1.0 and -1.2.

The latter IMO.

I still can't believe that trend reversed so close...its like the inverse of Jan 2015.

I knew that N stream would end up aggressive...this is why I talked it up when it looked like the s stream would play ball at like day 3-4 prior to phase.

I actually never relented calling for a huge winter and was getting mocked by mid January...

This La Nina was a low key tricky one...usually people assume a weak event will be easy, but I have found it can be the opposite.

While I blew it on the snow this weekend that isn't going to happen, I was all over this late blooming La Niña....people bail don it left and right.

Back to Regularly Scheduled "Cold & Dry" First Half of January Weekend Storm No Longer Anticipated Due to Sudden Reversal of Trends It became apparent early on Sunday that there was a definitive trend amongst all guidance to no longer hold back southern stream energy. This would subsequently afford it the opportunity to phase, at least to some degree, on Friday with a descending parcel of northern stream energy. Thus fostering the development of a significant winter storm this weekend. The thought process was that this type of a trend being evident across all guidance to varying degrees within 4 days of the potential phase was definitive evidence that guidance had an adequate handle on the southern stream evolution. Thus the likelihood of at least an eventual partial phase was relatively high, which is what led the conclusion that an impactful winter storm was likely. However, as turns out, guidance in fact did not yet have an accurate portrayal of the southern stream. Southern Stream Holding Back Eliminates Phasing Prospects It became evident by early Tuesday morning that the expectation that the southern stream energy would eject early enough to link up with the northern parcel would be incorrect, as guidance began to rapidly reverse that trend. This reversal is likely at least partially due to models keying on on seperate northern stream piece of energy that would disrupt the western CONUS ridge at the precise time that it was to assist in triggering the downstream phasing and coalescing of energy that would facilitate the development of the east coast storm next weekend. Ironically enough, this outcome is very similar to the original expectation from late last week that the first half of January would remain cold and dry. Although it is rare for trends in guidance to completely reverse once within 3-4 days of lead time, it is not impossible, and the assumption of Eastern Mass Weather that this would not be case in this instance proved incorrect.

Whatever....most on air mets equivocated more out of appreciation for the sensitivity of the situation...I consciously made a decision not to it, so have to own it....though not a forecast, per se....I openly hedged and was wrong.

Oh, btw...I blew it on this. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/back-to-regularly-scheduled-cold-dry.html