40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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People still tracking that? -
Did you actually look at the composite? Its the last 9 winter seasons and its terrible for east coast cold and snow.
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Absolutely agree.
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This looks prime for overrunning snow and major east coast winter storms...
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This is a defensive posture. Sorry. It just is-
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Okay, care to present empirical evidence that RNA/+WPO/+EPO isn't hostile?? Here is the WPO correlation for starters...does this look favorable for NE cold &/or snow??
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2008 did essentially the same thing...late-blooming Modoki. -
While I do think that there is some truth to this, I also believe that there is an element of projection at play here, too.
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Yes, and I am on record as having stated that if that global tendency doesn't shift by the end of the decade or shortly thereafter, then I will entertain that as a realistic possibility..but we aren't there yet.
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No, I agree...all I am intimating, and he appears to have become defensive. All I am saying is that I don't think this most recent 9 year stretch is a great period of time to test that theory because the baseline pattern was so awful, anyway. I'm not saying that identical patterns wouldn't necessarily yield less overrunning than they did 70 years ago...they probably would. But we need to remain mindful overattribution.
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yup. -
The fast flow down your GI
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I'm not even so much impugning the premise as I am merely arguing that there is another more obvious cause that is perfectly viable.
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I don't agree-sorry. You are going to get a lower frequency of prolific overrunning snowstorms in a -RNA/+EPO/+WPO pattern, which has been the predominate paradigm since 2015....that was the case in 1763, and it's the case now. Take 2013-2014 for instance.....the fast flow wasn't prohibitive of overrunning that season, was it?
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I remember DT in like late November-early December essentially guaranteeing that we wouldn't see La Niña and mocking the CFS. Nice to see some validation after all of the time I put into that over the summer and fall. Now if it would just snow, that would be cool, too. -
And the shitty air masses make overrunning less likely, too.
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No, I understood just fine...my point is that I don't think that the last 9 years are a great sample because it's been so damn warm due to the awful Pacific.
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Yes...but my point is that during +PNA/-EPO, as we have seen this year....the cold is there, which is a necessary component for overrunning.
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Well, the fact that the pattern has been constant -PNA/+EPO/+WPO may have something to do with that, too.... all of the arctic highs have been out west...now this year, they aren't. No one is denying CC...but we can't totally dismiss fundamental synoptics, either....the pattern has largely sucked for 8 years....and it would have sucked 100 years ago given the aforementioned telecon alignment...albeit colder.
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Well, how often have we seen appreciable +PP over se Canada that are of arctic origin?? I think we will/have been seeing that this year....add a WAR, and bang.
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One they pull all of that shit, you know a juicy Modoki El Niño will arrive next year lol
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Just overrun an arctic dome, and/or shear the shit out of a SW at a high enough latitude owed to a WAR and ...presto-
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Well, that compressed medium primarily inhibits major cyclogensis, no? Overrunning/SWFEs are one potential avenue around that...
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Yea, I could sense I would get called on that-
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This is of course assuming nothing major pops up in January, which is still entirely possible....but I'm starting have some doubts.
