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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly. I think it will be a better pattern than 2018-2019 because of the WPO....should be some bonafide SWFE mixed in, as opposed to just 2-4" front enders.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    PNA and WPO are also important.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do these look the same to you...because these are BOTH -EPO....
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Speaking of the 2008 ENSO analog I have be talking up all last fall and into the winter....here is the peak on Xmas for both. 24DEC2008 22.9-0.3 24.4-0.8 25.6-1.0 27.5-0.9 25DEC2024 23.1-0.2 24.7-0.5 25.5-1.1 27.6-0.7
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This was essentially the theme of my outlook....I would expect that to come to fruition for the most part, though I'm sure there will obviously be some +WPO intervals accompanied by a warmer look.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    More on a -EPO, but +WPO.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty much a Modoki....but that isn't such a big deal when it's weak like this....this is a lot like the 2008-2009 La Niña. 01JAN2025 23.7 0.1 25.3-0.1 25.8-0.7 27.7-0.6
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mis-spoke in the previous post...that is not -WPO, its the opposite...but it looks like the NAO is south biased and kind of neutral, so some that cold should be able to bleed east in modified fashion.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably more influenced by extra tropical influences, thus variable....which isn't necessarily bad heading into February during cool ENSO.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Keep in mind, that composite is just raw MJO derived....and the resultant pattern will obviously be influenced by other factors , which will be (de)constructively interfered with by the MJO and thus the resultant pattern is likely to be more nuanced than that
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would especially like the look in the GL and NNE, but not prohibitive for us.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to me like it's a strong -WPO/RNA look....lots of cold around, but focused west...with a pretty neutral signal over most of the east, albeit a touch mild in NE. Def. a risky look as far as storm track with the RNA/flat Aleutian ridge.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tip (no pun intended) of the cap to you, John....I am too emotionally drained from the past few weeks to even look for long range threats yet. Kind of quasi-checked out while my orifices heal prior to the next violation.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perusing the latest modeled lapse rates with a 40oz of formula?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, which is what I am banking on....maybe we keep whiffing and I hit my futility mark, but I'll bet against that. probably not this season, but the tide will turn at some point.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there will be front enders, which 2018-2019 had plenty of. If things are timed right, some bonafide SWFEs, too.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I pretty much stopped posting in here and following once I knew the s stream would lag.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I certainly don't expect to hit March with single digits snowfall and probably not under 25-30".
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went +2 to +4 for the DM period, so banking on some warmer times in the second half of the season, but also somewhat snowier, too.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey @qg_omega, how is the +6 DJF looking??
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    -EPO keepa Canada cold allows said cold to dump imto the US....in. -PNA/+NAO pattern, it dumps WEST.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, not necessarily..all -EPO does is keep Canada cold, but has nothing to do with storm track. 2018-2019 is a great example of an unfavorable -EPO where the coast got screwed.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, 2008-2009....not 2007-2008.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think so....he has like 1.5", but averages like 15" less than I do.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't imagine anyone is further below normal than I am at 2" on the season...maybe a tiny sliver just N of me in se NH?
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