40/70 Benchmark

16-17 was like a normal winter in my area....maybe a few inches above.

Yea, but they are becoming more rare is my point...hypothesis, so don't ask for a quantitative anaiysis from Cornell lol

I was honestly going to do this pretty soon....as January looks like a lost cause. Will update this in a couple of weeks, but here are my thoughts from last fall. February 2025 Outlook February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972 The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward. The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times. "SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events-

When is our last south to north east coast bonanza?? 2002-2003? I mean, I guess you could argue seasons like 2010-2011, and maybe 2013-2014? But the former was definitely better in NE than the mid Atlantic. The latter wasn't really upper echelon up here. What we are usually seeing here in more modern times is that there are regions of "haves and have nots" once the seasonal tracks become established.....for instance, 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 it was up here....2020-2021 it was in NJ, while our area was in the compression bone-zone...this year its the mid Atlantic and southeast, and we are in the bone zone-compression field....again.

Like most CC attributions, there is some merit to it, but folks (not directed at anyone in particular) get carried away with it and exaggerate said attribution.

My thoughts with respect to the CC/increased compression correlation are that its not reducing the frequency of major storms at any one location, as like I said above, you are going to be more pone to compression issues somewhere when you displace a PV southward. However, I do think that it makes a repeat of seasons like 1995, where it was a an orgy up and down the east coast, a much taller task because we are more likely to see that aforementioned "zone of compression" than we were decades ago. ...THAT is a manifestation of CC.

I know.

Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine.

Not me, at this point. If I could opt out of this season right now, I would do so without blinking.

That is the higher ceiling, agreed. Fits within my preseason window, too.

Its recency bias...because we have seen -3SD RNA past couple of seasons.

This winter? May start blogging about them

Nah, I couldn't care less...just a joke.

Always a surefire sign of a particularly enthralling winter when the thread is littered with dialogue concerning different varieties of peach species as we cross the midway point of January.

Gonna delve into this tomorrow if it warrants.

Tip.

The title sure has the appeal of a Tippy thread...as long as the post itself.

Nope. That would destroy me...that is how mid March 2018 event looked on the clowns.

Yup.

If that actually verified, it would be great...nice mid level look here.

Most significant is the fact that the ceiling isn't much higher.

Snowier pattern for me.

Its like a 2-5" deal.

It was a Modoki La Niña with a vortex sitting over AK.