40/70 Benchmark

I don't really see the significance of that...February 2000 had a very strong +PNA like this one (calculation), so why don't we consider the winter following that? Only Bluewave could reframe a shift towards +PNA after the most prominent several year stretch of RNA on record as a negative for winter.

I'm not sure...I'm speculating. I never said every season has been +NAO, but as you stated...the trend has been strongly in favor of +NAO.

Eh...depends on perspective. I'd rake 2000-2001 over 2002-2003, and I think many in the mid atl would take 2009-2010.

I just got brushed with some showers here...just west of me. .03"

2.84" rainfall since Friday. Just started up again...

Yea, need to weight the RONI heavily.

Hence the qualification with quotation marks....but I'd take over the "W" with respet to heat.

I know John as noticed this, too....we have had zero issues scoring epic winter patterns over the course of this torturous last several years......during the spring.

It was much better near the NH border in E MA.

I'll have to tally it when I get home, but I def have been one of the "winners" with respect to rainfall this week.

That is quite a run there early last decade considering the strong modern predisposition towards +NAO....3/4 years with a mean DM -NAO. Hopefully due for another stretch like that soon. Approaching solar min near the turn of the decade should help.

Oh yes...I was focused on cool ENSO. Yea, I was being generous, so I included anything with a mean negative value. Yes, missed 2012-2013, as well....I listed those seasons based on a very cursory glance, so thanks for the corrections

I definitely dive pretty deeply into it in the blog...but I think the predominant +WPO is tied into the west PAC warm pool. I think the NAO is being impacted by CC because we hardly ever have DM seasons that average -NAO anymore. Last season was predicatable due to solar max, but even beyond that...the ceiling is like one month averaging neg NAO lol. This century, only 2000-2001, 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 have pulled it off.

The WPO and the NAO were the main issue last season....EPO/PNA supplied seasonal cold, but major storms still either tracked inland, or failed to phase because the PNA ridge would get throttled. Only time the NAO played ball in January it ended up a suppressive detriment.

Finished dead-center of my range.

For whom the bell tolls...apparently not @LibertyBell.

Lonely times?

I think the key for this season is finally flip the WPO....since 2016-2017, which was mild for other reasons....we have only had one -WPO season, which was 2021-2022...no suprise that was our one KU over the course of the last several years.

Yea, Chuck would probably agree given his NAO subsurface formula.

Here is my recap of last season: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/winter-2024-2025-slightly-warmer-than.html Index Value Predicted '24-'25 DM Value Range Actual '24-'25 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -1.85 to -2.15 -1.46 Biased .39 Negative Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.40 to +.10 +1.02 Biased .92 Negative ENSO DJF -0.6 to -0.8 ONI EMI: -.5 to -.7 (Mixed-Type) DJF -0.6 ONI DJF EMI: -.7 Verified (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)/DM West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) +.30 to +.60 JM EPO -.40 to -.70 DM WPO -.30 JM EPO +.45 DM WPO Biased .60 Positive Biased -.85 Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) +.26 to +.56 -.18 Biased .44 Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.38 to +.68 +.65 Verified City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 24-34" 28.1" Verified NewYork, NY(Central Park) 10-20" 12.9" Verified Philadelphia, PA 8-18" 7.7" 3.9% Baltimore, MD 6-16" 12.7" Verified Washington, DC 4-14" 14.9" 6.4% Albany, NY 48-58" 43.9" 9.3% Hartford, CT 24-34" 23.4" 2.6% Providence, RI 20-30" 15.6" 28.2% Worcester, MA 50-60" 41.2" 21.4% Tolland, CT 40-50" 32" 25% Methuen, MA 41-51" 32.5" 26.2% Hyannis, MA 14-24" 10.8" 30% Burlington, VT 65-75" 75.7" 0.9% Portland, ME 48-58" 54.1 Verified Concord, NH 49-59" 37.5" 30.7% Final Grade for 2024-2025 Season: B

...which is ironic....