40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I know...I was more referencing John's comment. Maybe he's right, but I would just be careful about expecting the same N Pac setup to have that exact, same result later in the season, as far as stifling storminess.

Frankly, the WPO isn't that important in March due to wave lengths shortening, so can't even be sure that would have the same stifling impact that it did earlier in the season.

Not necessarily fooled AFAIC, but to me, that is close enough at several months lead.

GEFS probably won't.

I don't anticipate lights out in March, at least for the NE, anyway.

Yea, that is our only shot with VD Day IMO...you can see the OP Euro erodes it faster, which is why it has had an inland runner a la Feb 2023, whereas the OP GFS keeps it more stout and we go a more Jan 2011 route.

Same...I was incorporating everything...I would follow the ONI as long as the RONI and MEI weren't inordinately different....if they were, I would defer to them and maybe use ONI as a tie-breaker. I probably still will.

Apparently the CPC agrees, considering they are now using RONI as the official measure of ENSO intensity. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.

Yea, better chance in March, but it's probably decidedly RNA from here on out IMO.

Not gonna happen IMO.

I'm getting there....proceeding with caution.

Definitely does down as a weak La Nina in my book....meager, sure....but MEI was well withing La Nina territory and there wasn't much of a STJ presence in the US. I guess 1995-1996 must have been an El Nino, right? MJO still avoided phase 8 for the most part.

Educational mistake. Here is my composite without the two Pacific trough analog seasons. Leaving 2014 out was also a decision influenced by CC bc it was so cold...it's clear I have to reign that back a bit after neglecting it for many years. I don't have all of the answers to the test.....always learning.

Hey, at least you can finally rest easy knowing that I actually do not plagiarize your work, right? Fair critique in a vacuum, but I have my doubts whether it was well intended judging from both your tone and history on here. As someone who also has a great deal of experience making seasonal forecasts, I'm sure you understand that it can be tough to nail the timing and precise placement of the anomalies in a composite map. This was largely due to three factors: 1) The -NAO during the latter half of January was unexpected, and it caused the cold to focus east of where I had it. I touched on this in my write up. 2) I have not addressed these last two as of yet because I was saving it for the post season analysis...but I went more conservative than my forecast narrative would imply due to an overcompensation to account for CC. Two things were clear to anyone that took the time to actually read my work. I was expecting a very cold +TNH pattern to ensue after mid January, and I used 1951-2010 climo maps to forecast 1991-2020 anomalies. I'm testing some things out to try to better account for CC, but I think it's abundantly clear that I had a very firm grasp on the pattern this season. 3) I included the 2002 and 2006 analogs to reflect the mid month Pacific Trough regime that would serve as the precursor pattern to the subsequent +TNH, but that was clearly a mistake that influenced the forecast composite too heavily, despite having matched that pattern very well. I'm not sure why you are so insecure despite possessing such a wealth of knowledge with regard to long range forecasting. I'm sure your failed business venture concerning gambling on the weather didn't help, buy my advice is to try to remain mindful of the perils of making others feel small as opposed to focusing more on how to make yourself feel tall. Better luck in your future endeavors-

Same page.

Jives with my thinking that there will be no spring anytime soon.

I'll probably give this a shoutout tomorrow if it still looks hopeful.

I continue to think that my nearly decade long streak of subpar seasons is about to end, just a matter of whether it's done incrementally, or in grand fashion.

Clearly, CoastalWx would just LOVE for the vortex to phase in.....

That VD systems seems like a tight rope, highwire act, whereas it's kind of spectrum of potential outcomes concerning just how much if the PV phases in and how much of that decaying west NAO block remains. Big phase and rapid erosion of block=mess for SNE, moderate PV contribution and stout block=nudity and little PV contribution=largely indifference from me.

Funny, 2000-2001 actually had very hostile forcing...it's in the Modoki composite, but it's not a huge deal since it was weak and had the huge east QBO/Solar max attributed blocky polar domain.

Most great months do.

Yea, I mean its bette than a pure Modoki type composite, which is nowhere near 8.

Here is the money-week...