40/70 Benchmark

I told that moron on his own site that the next SSW was coming in February back in early December, when be was trying to claim one was coming near Christmas.

Speaking for myself, I'm obviously not debating CC, or the that the increase in the speed of the flow is real...my contention is that CC is having a negative influence on major east coast cyclogenesis via altered tropical forcing (increase in MC phases, and decrease in central Pacific phases) as a result of the disproportionately rapid warming of the west Pacific. I'm sure the fast flow doesn't help, but I don't think it's the primary inhibitor due to the success that other areas of the globe have with amplification...ie midwest and western Atlantic (Maritimes). It's probably a combination, but it definitely seems to me to be more an issue of simply faster flow, and somewhat of a forcing issue.

My point is there is nothing on the imminent horizon worth salvaging.

If you aren't in patterns conducive to east coast amplification, you either get cutters, or suppressed systems in really cold patterns that can't turn up the coast...sound familiar to the past several seasons?

Hope and Pray for -NAO....why? Please, let's hold onto the bitter wind chills and dearth of storms for just a few more weeks...please, oh pretty please... I'm ready to rinse and then make one more go of it before my fantasy baseball draft.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Not really. I'd be stunned if we didn't see blocking in March.

Pretty close...I'm at 39.5".

Makes sense, as there is usually a break right when the SSW takes place,.

It will because it won't meet the 5 consecutive months at or blow -0.5 criteria, but I considered it a La Niña, anyway....per MEI and RONI.

That looks like the Jan 2022 band that croacked I 95...I suffered the same fate as you lol

It's not an official La Nina, no.

Agree!!! Candidate for post of the year!!!

Probably centered on when the actual split is taking place.

Take a look at set ups with decidedly +EPO/+WPO/-NAO...promise it won't be this cold, and often downright mild...we've seen some examples over the past several years.

No it hasn't, the North Pacific has. -NAO can prevent a torch and help to lock cold in when it matters, but it's not the source of this arctic flow.

No, it impacted March, but the extreme RNA still worked mid atlantic and SNE.

Why is that?

Those were my two top SSW analogs, and very good seasonal analogs in general. Hence the KU window in early March,

Just being a dick. Long range forecasting is hard...only way to get any better is falling in on your face enough (not suggesting you did). I think I have another 22-32" to go IMBY this season.

Say buckle up enough, the seatbelt will eventually click.

Snowing at the rate of 3"/week....Feb 2015 and Jan 2011. I actually see the value of the Feb 2015 analog, but my gag-reflex kicks in when people compare the snowfall.

That output verbatim blows biggies.

Depends what happens from here on out in terms or snow...I'm still about 2' shy of average snowfall, so plenty left to be desired from my perspective if the balance of the season dissapoints in that respect.

Well, you, nor anyone else, has reduced it to zero...so there is luck as far as we know...I think we are aways off from getting there.