40/70 Benchmark

Okay, so its too limited to day that it doesn't...thus all we can do is work with the sample that we have.

I disagree. Strong/east based El Nino absolutely favor +NAO....weaker/Modoki favor more -NAO periods. Strong/Modoki La Nina favor +NAO.....weaker/east-based favor more -NAO periods.

Problem is that its not consistent, so I don't know how anyone can claim anything.

Not my premise....its peer reviewed literature. Do me a favor and look at a composite of Modoki events and east-based events....there is absolutely a difference within the NAO domain. It is evident in the graphic below that Modoki, or basin-wide La Nina events, such as this one is likely to be, often feature the seasonal nadir for the NAO near the bookends of the season in December and March. In contrast, east-based events are more likely to feature mid season NAO blocking and accompanying cold. The behavior of the NAO is the reason why December is the coldest month of the CP la Nina composite, as the NAO is only moderately positive in the composite, while it is highly positive in January and February. The NAO averages slightly negative in November and March. Contrary to the CP la Nina years, the month of December is the most mild month of the EP composite because the NAO is neutral-negative, and is very negative the rest of the winter before ascending slightly in March. Thus the orientation of La Nina can play a vital role in not only the aggregate NAO value of the winter season, but also the overall progression. This is due both the aforementioned modulation of the Hadley Cell via convective forcing patterns and the oceanic circulation patterns that feedback into the Atlantic via subtropical jet bridges to sustain said forcing patterns. Zhang et al 2014 verify through several atmospheric simulations that CP la Nina favors an extratropical response redolent of a positive NAO configuration across north America and the north Atlantic. And EP La Nina favors negative NAO during the winter season due to a diametrically opposing atmospheric and oceanic circulation pattern. It is suggested that the subtropical jet bridges the connection between ENSO and the NAO. Essentially, the circulation pattern of the CP la Nina strengthens the Pacific subtropical jet, which augments the Atlantic jet and creates an anticyclonic circulation. This circulation configures SSTs in such a manner as to reinforce positive NAO through a wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The EP event has a diametrically opposed circulation pattern that weakens said subtropical Pacific jet, which in turn diminishes the Atlantic jet and fosters the development of an cyclonic circulation that sustains negative NAO via said wind-evaporation-SST feedback. This likely played a role in why the more eastern biased, strong hybrid la Nina season of 1955-1956 featured both high latitude blocking and poleward Aleutian ridging, while other years within the dataset, such as 1999-2000 and 1975-1976 were so much milder with a notable dearth of blocking. In fact, Zhang even referred to basin-wide events as "hybrid" or "mixed" events, since they often display characteristics of both east-based and Modoki events. Due to the fact that this season is likely to feature a central-based, hybrid event of weak intensity with a moderate ocean-atmosphere interface, odds favor a +AO and NAO consistent with a fairly strong polar vortex in the mean. The months of December and March may be most prone to an episode(s) of -AO/NAO. However, variance in this data set is high, thus it is imperative to consider alternative outcomes. Obviously, weaker SST anomalies present within more marginal La Nina events have a reduced ability to couple with the atmosphere, thus other extra tropical factors play a more prominent role. This means that the correlation of the NAO to the structure of La Nina is reduced in weaker ENSO events. This is also why some weaker CP events, such as the 2008-2009 and 2000-2001 events, did not feature a very prominent positive NAO signal and were thus more prone to episodes of blocking.

Absolutely agree with the underlined portion. As for the last portion, you keep acting like this is standardized and it is not. The fact of the matter is that the predominate type of snowfall measurtement has moved away from the 6 hour swipe method with the exception of the major airports. The majority of spotters are not clearing and are discouraged from doing so. In March 2018, I had a 31.5" snowfall total discounted by the NWS because it was obtained but the 6 hour clear method...they accepted another report from that same town of 25", which was uncoincidentally was my final depth.

Modoki El Nino has a more conducive set up for -NAO, as well. East-based La Nina tends to have the more poleward Aleitan ridging that allows for more cold intrusions into N AM.

Eh....to a point...there are disparate HC configurations for weaker vs stronger events and modiki vs east-base events...

Exactly as I explain it....weaker events are more prone to extra tropical (and arctic) influences.

Under an inch......AIT

@ineedsnowany accumulation?

I was trying to explain that to some degreed met in a Facebook group....the guy is like Tip, as he is so articulate and clearly knows his stuff. He was citing all of this support for his position that the higher terrain of ORH county would get at least an inch...and I was just like "Lets see what actually happens". Sometimes you need to put the computer down, toss the calculus 8 theorems and just look out your fuck1ing window to observe what has been happening the past 4-5 months.

Yup. Asstacular weekend and start of the week...I'm sure the balance of the week will be just peachy until we hit Saturday.

Any accumulation?

I knew he wouldn't...just weenied me out of retalitation like my toddlers would do, but crickets on the bet-

Its so early that its just an educated guess, so we'll see.

I actually think we could avoid it again.

Moregarbgage....all of the idiots....yup. I didn't see anyone worthy of actual consdieration do it.

At least its warm....maybe avoid shrivel?

I don't agree with that, but we shall see. Just an early hedge...my position could alwways change once I dig in.

Yea, I don't do summer forecasts...not the interest level and I would end up divorced, but consensus seems to be for a hot summer.

Looks like I was a hair too robust with the RONI peak...I had -1.2 to -1.4 vs the actual peak of -1.12. MEI peak forecast range was -1 to -1.2 and the actual peak was on the high end of the range at -1. I had the La Nina ONI peak between -0.6 and -0.8. Peak was -0.6. I was pretty accurate in terms of the peak, albeit at the weaker end of my range. Pretty impressive consiering the headfake by guidance late last fall and even into the early winter in cancelling La Nina. The comparison to the 2008-2009 event in terms of the late come back and shift west into more of a weaker Modoki worked out well.

Yea, the Feb warming was odd in that it was triggered by lower level, tropospheric phenomena.

Who hyped this? I think maybe JB....but I didn't see anyone else. Judah never did...I though it would be useless daying back to last fall.

What in the hell is NOI?

Exactly the point.