40/70 Benchmark

This time of year, 40 hardly dents it...March and even latter February is a different story.

I'm sure everyone remembers how brutally awful I handled the El Nino a couple of years ago....was completely undressed by @bluewaveon how it would interact with the west Pacific. It was the best thing that ever happened to me in terms of my ability to forecast on a seasonal level

Ha...I remember that. Wow, that is weak.....lost some respect. Acknowledgement of errors is the primary catalyst for growth.

:crap:

I think January 2022 is a decent analog, but the cold will likely be delayed a bit relative to that month.

...or when they have 4 little kids and are desperately trying to complete a 36 page winter outlook

Actually a very apt disclaimer for these past several years.

Certainly one of the more innocuous ones I have observed on this forum...

Absolute-100% same page.

Hopefully it doesn't blow the soap and shampoo away

Now it's also pouring, which isn't as inspiring from a wind standpoint...

First of all, I think some of the guidance exaggerated the blocking...especially a couple of days ago. Secondly, -NAO doesn't matter if your arctic flow is cut-off, which it will be with the lower heights building over AK to counter the Bering ridge. Finally, and this goes along with #1....I think guidance not only exaggerated the amplitude of the blocking, but the extent to which it will retrograde into a favorable position, and east-based "thumb-ridges" are far less impactful for the east.

I trust Will and Scott over any OCM now that Harv is gone.

Then do it if it gets them to spend.

I'm thrilled it doesn't look like last year.

March 2001 is another great analog.....maybe March 2023 with a less hostile Pacific.

Instantly top of my list.

I do have some glimmer of hope that selling the Pens will afford them a bit more investment in the Sox, but they will probably just pocket it and buy giant golden dildos for their wives-

I hear the wind really picking up at my office in Chelsea, right down the street from KBOS.

I think John Henry purchased the atmosphere to replace the Penguins in the FSG portfolio..... #interestkings

And Red Sox acqusitions.

I think @512high Phil is the only person that religiously follows my content I'm okay with it....I do it for myself, for the most part.....to keep learning and maintain my writing skills.

I have an extremely meager following....don't get me wrong, I'm sure some it is because of how outdated my blogger medium is, as pope has so eloquently and gracefully pointed out on several occasions....but I think it's also because I pride myself on objectivity. I completely ignore threats that some of these dopes use to generate thousands of clicks. I think a lot of my stuff isn't very digestible for the laymen, as well..especially my outlooks. They are long and academic, which is a turn off today...society doesn't want to think critically, or focus for protracted periods of time. They want a pretty picture that strokes their primal weather schlong in short order.

Yea, I think the rest of 2025 and for the most part, the first half of January are mild, and hostile to major east coast snow. Maybe the NE sneaks in some SWFE's/overrunning.