40/70 Benchmark

Theoretically speaking, I agree....but I would be stunned if ends up solidly negative.

It depends...the issue isn't as binary as the question implies. It depends on the pattern and location....generally speaking, +PNA is beneficial anywhere on the east for cold, phase potential....but in the northeast, sometimes a more neutral or even negative PNA is preferred if there is a major NAO block....below about 40N, you always want a +PNA.

I think there is a recency bias for folks to see a deep, cavernous trough on the west coast, and then just kind of throw their hands up and succumb to the prevailing theme of the decade....but don't forget, that was in fact abandoned last season, regardless of the lack of snow around these parts.

I still say that the +PNA will win the month. I would be careful about buying the deep -PNA as much as I was the -NAO...I bet we see that go "poof" in like fashion.

Yes, this is why often the big arctic blasts in these shoot down the center of the country and we get more pedestrian cold.

+TNH is often +PNA, but not always.....has the PV near Hudson Bay.

IDK...I think the +TNH regime is clear as day. I agree the details need to be worked out, but I don't think there is much ambiguity concerning the larger scale pattern.

Late January will be crucial...if the gradient sets up just north of me, as it has so often and as @jbenedet indicated, then SNE is most definitely cooked in terms of seasonal totals. Wolfie, please put the fangs away...that doesn't preclude a great stretch, but all I'm saying is that climo snowfall is by the boards for SNE if latter January screw us. Maybe not for select areas in CT that got 8.5" last week-

I could totally see it taking somewhat longer than mid-month...perfectly reasonable possibility, especially if Canada gets really flushed.

Great post....only cautionary note that I would add is that January 2022 +TNH interval worked out south of that line.

This is why you incorporate the QBO and solar cycle into analogs. I think my progression has been good so far....only blemish is the severe -WPO making December colder than I thought....but moving forward, I was confident in latter January +TNH last fall, and still am now.

I'm pretty confident that any huge PV infiltration would knife down through the center of the country, anyway.

Last season I bailed after that big January threat failed. We has one decent stretch in early Feb and that was it. I felt like March was a lost cause dating back to the fall, and I was absolutely correct. It was.

I don't know, ask someone who think it's over-

I think "by January 12th" is aggressive, anyway.

I think 2014/2022/2025 analogs will play a role in January and February, along with 2001...not a bad cast.

Main difference between this year and 2018 is I think there will be much more of a +TNH element to this season to partially shield us from stronger PV intervals...this is what I think saves us for at least the start of February due to the carry over from the second half of January. The cold will be there after the flushing next week. It will get scary with the PAC jet firing and all, but it's temporary.

Still really like 2001 type of progression the rest of the way....the only pause that the 2018 analog gives me is that I do not feel February will be that warm....2022-2023 second half with a better Pacific may also be apt, which could be quite nice. That March would have been lethal with a serviceable Pacific.

This incoming stretch was completely expected, and I still think it will get active beyond mid-month...but man, if this winter ends up disappointing, I'm probably going to start treating winter the way I do the Red Sox cold-stove season....complete and utter disinterest barring something imminent. It's a shame...I used to be so excited, now I just look at off season articles, roll my eyes and keep scrolling. I really thought we would have done better in December. That said, I can totally see a March 2018 type period coming up in the second half. Try to hang in there because it's not over. This season has that 2018-type of profile.

Sucks, because the fantasy snow has been coming to fruition.

Shortest post I've ever seen you make.

Best part of 2025 weatherwise for me was the ball dropping last night.

Squalls went south of me....glad. I ignored the 1/4" on the blog and in real life . Didn't touch the drive way.

I just didn't want lure Wolfie into reiterating how enjoyable it was for him.

I was just preemptively covering myself.