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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wish we could get this evolution during the winter.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd love to get some weak residual +AAM for next winter....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    All of the seasonals are doing it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not like I take snowfall on seasonal guidance seriously.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suspect the PDO will average pretty near neutral this season..we'll see, which could leave us prone to some interludes of cross polar flow, between which we nape.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Typical manifestation of CC....it's often not readily apparent and rather insidious.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's clear something still isn't quite clicking.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a pretty safe assumption that unless otherwise specified, comments in this thread pertain to the N HEM, since that's where we live. If you would like to discuss the S Hem, then the onus in on you to make that known. @SnoSki14originally commented on implications for N HEM winter, which is what prompted my reply.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again...you want to deduce that it will couple in the mad latitudes of the N hem based on what is taking place in the s Hem, fine...different point. I agree with that to a large extent, but that doesn't change what is going on right now.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Trying to figure out when that region became the northern Hemisphere....
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    May very well get there, but we are talking about NOW...the fact is that El Nino is not very well coupled with the mid latitudes of the N HEM at this time.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    @LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know, but I think I'd eventually have issues with it backing into Ginxy's dog kennel like that.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Took the words right out of my mouth.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it would be messy in December with that onshore fetch.....
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That'll do-
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you want a drift to the west just south of LI to max that ENE funneling.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we would want it to back to the west a bit south of us
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like remarkable ensemble agreement on a pretty impactful event to me...if this were winter, I'd be sending the social media alerts.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too bad we couldn't get a cane to come up in this pattern, though it would probably pull a Sandy and turn in south of us.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I always want to see coastals get going early.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I checked right out on local weather once the blizzard finished and pulled out of my rear last February...knew there was nothing to see for months and months-
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he means "bad" in relation to run-run consistency...
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