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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I couldn't care less. They still suck.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That isn't a problem because it's irrelevant within the scope of the analysis. It's a superior ENSO analog for THIS season.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel warm and fuzzy for them.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, by this point...I think we are all out of the withdrawl stage and onto recovery.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any juicy EPS members left?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, wow. Unreal how nothing will go right.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is more correctable
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    But the phasing is at like day 4...if the Euro suite continues trending to shit today, then that is egregiously bad.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def didn't love the trend on the 06z EPS..do this again at 12z, I'll will probably jump ship.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not the progress I would like on the GEFS, but really no discouraging move, either.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    GEFS not great....but better than 00z...similar to 06z.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    12z GFS looks like the 06z EURO to me....EURO maybe a bit worse....don't love that.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    GEMS looks a bit more robust versus the GFS relative to the N stream parcel.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Each piece of guidance is a tool in our forecasting arsenal, and it's incumbent upon the forecaster to utilize knowledge and experience gleaned to discern how to use them in a given situation. In this case, I think the best use of the GEM would be to compare its northern stream iteration to that other guidance because it is likely to have a better handle on how potent that parcel of energy will be....as far as the main player INVO Baja...shit can it-
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously this scales back confidence in a large storm, but not as much as it may ostensibly appear....wait on the GEFS and EURO suite. I still feel as though its coming.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    This run will probably look worse than 00z at the surface simply because we end up with all N stream, and that parcel of energy is weaker than that run. However, the important consideration is that the SW energy is not nearly as cut off as that run. Its just a bit too late.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its def not as disjointed as the 00z GFS, though.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The PNA ridge being a hair less amplified probably didn't help-
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, by hour 141 its clear this run is shit.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just saying....not directed at you, per se.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wait for GEFS before bridge shopping.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks a bit less favorable vs 06z through hr 117
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    ICON looks to have dragged the SW energy a bit more than 00z...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think maybe something can be gleaned from any discernible trend...
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