Pattern hasn't been perfect, but one would think we would have gotten more than we have...I mean, 'cmon....if this whiffs, I'm sitting at 2" crossing the midway point here on the NH border.
Seems as though the model is sniffing it out, but struggling to determine the intricacies of how the complex steam interaction/phasing will take place and probably won't until very close in.
18z AI EURO pretty similar to 18z GFS to me through hr 114...Less held back w s stream energy but bit weaker w northern energy. PNA ridge less impressive, too.
Gave NYC like 3' like 60 hours out...I called for a later phase and ventured into the NYC thread to announce as much, and they were less than receptive. Mother nature OTOH ultimately was receptive.
My opinion on this is that its akin to an inverted trough...is it physically plausible that it could be correct? Sure, but I don't view this as a LBSW threat and thus it is likely a provisional offering while the GFS figures out how to engineer our blizzard.