40/70 Benchmark

I mean, I certainly won't be stunned if next winter is -PNA....all I mean is the days of troughs down to the baja in the seasonal mean are gone for awhile. I think last season was a sign of change....maybe it's a one step forward, two steps backward (next year), but times are changing.

Happy belated freakday!

I think if you look back throughout history, you won't find many blockbuster seasons on the east coast with a strongly +WPO/NAO, regardless of whether or not it was prohibitively warm in the mean. I have found zero dating back to 1948 in fact, so this isn't a novel concept. All of these rules you are treating as fact are still speculative and you are operating as if they are fact. I know you will find data to support your theories and contend that its fact, but the reality is that any inference beyond the fact that the climate is warming is still specualtive at this point.

Okay, I didn't realize you were connecting it to the mismatch research...all you said was +PNA December. But I still don't see the significance relative to next season. I would have to say just based on sheer odds given the warming trend, you are probably right with respect to it not being a cold, but I agree that snowfall is a lot more dubious. If we got an identical pattern next season, but flipped the WPO and NAO negative, then it would be significantly snowier. I am all for keeping an open mind in relation to the influence of CC, but not at the expense of ignoring traditional teleconnections. Many of those seasons you listed simply had better patterns. 1995 had an ideal pattern in all respects....2000-2001 had a negative NAO, in 2018 the SSW took place one month earlier, so it didn't take until March to affect the pattern and flip the polar domain more favorable, and 2020-2021 had a -NAO, even though it wasn't excessively so.

I only had a 1'....stuck in subsidence.

It was def. a really good winter, but probably outside of my top 5...especially considering how I badly I got porked in PD II.

I don't really see the significance of that...February 2000 had a very strong +PNA like this one (calculation), so why don't we consider the winter following that? Only Bluewave could reframe a shift towards +PNA after the most prominent several year stretch of RNA on record as a negative for winter.

I'm not sure...I'm speculating. I never said every season has been +NAO, but as you stated...the trend has been strongly in favor of +NAO.

Eh...depends on perspective. I'd rake 2000-2001 over 2002-2003, and I think many in the mid atl would take 2009-2010.

I just got brushed with some showers here...just west of me. .03"

2.84" rainfall since Friday. Just started up again...

Yea, need to weight the RONI heavily.

Hence the qualification with quotation marks....but I'd take over the "W" with respet to heat.

I know John as noticed this, too....we have had zero issues scoring epic winter patterns over the course of this torturous last several years......during the spring.

It was much better near the NH border in E MA.

I'll have to tally it when I get home, but I def have been one of the "winners" with respect to rainfall this week.

That is quite a run there early last decade considering the strong modern predisposition towards +NAO....3/4 years with a mean DM -NAO. Hopefully due for another stretch like that soon. Approaching solar min near the turn of the decade should help.

Oh yes...I was focused on cool ENSO. Yea, I was being generous, so I included anything with a mean negative value. Yes, missed 2012-2013, as well....I listed those seasons based on a very cursory glance, so thanks for the corrections

I definitely dive pretty deeply into it in the blog...but I think the predominant +WPO is tied into the west PAC warm pool. I think the NAO is being impacted by CC because we hardly ever have DM seasons that average -NAO anymore. Last season was predicatable due to solar max, but even beyond that...the ceiling is like one month averaging neg NAO lol. This century, only 2000-2001, 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 have pulled it off.

The WPO and the NAO were the main issue last season....EPO/PNA supplied seasonal cold, but major storms still either tracked inland, or failed to phase because the PNA ridge would get throttled. Only time the NAO played ball in January it ended up a suppressive detriment.

Finished dead-center of my range.

For whom the bell tolls...apparently not @LibertyBell.

Lonely times?