40/70 Benchmark

My record lowest season is 19.9" in 1979-1980...hell, I had only 20.3 in 1988-1989, 28.2" in 1990-1991, 26.6" in 1991-1992 and 22.5" in 1994-1995.....about 23" in 2011-2012; yet in this new, warmer climate, I have managed at least 32.5" in every season since 2018-2019. Thank god for the increased moisture of CC.

Here is a radical suggestion.....hear me out....maybe, just maybe....all-time record snowfall seasons don't grow on trees and are kind of anomalous?? Just a thought- This harkens back to my point about how there is nothing that could happen that would ever change your mind....had we never set those records, it would be because of CC....now, since we have set them and haven't kept up with that record pace.....it's because of CC. Any guesses on how it would be rationalized if we do it again....."well, it won't happen again in this newer and even warmer climate". You will use that higher record to rationalize that CC is why we have't topped it yet again.

No...reflection event mid January...the warming is after that...anytime from later in January into mid Feb. This is just based on my analogs and research....don't mean to speak in absolutes or sound arrogant. Odds are I am wrong.

Yes.....GW must be to blame for not having a top 3 all-time snowfall season over the past 9 years. In fact, if I can't score a 40" event this season, then that solidifies it in my mind. No doubt-

My point is I'm not convinced we won't see that again. If anything, it's been more common the last 30 years...we just did it 11 years ago. What was the return rate on it pre 1994? We don't know because it had never happened.

This jives with my thoughts for January, as my analogs have a stratospheric reflection event getting underway around mid month, which will trigger strong AK ridging and a +TNH pattern, but those reflection events are preceded by Pacific trough patterns....hence +EPO.

I think that is pretty unlikely independent of GW.....that was an incredibly anomalous stretch that included 2 all-time record snowfall seasons. Let's not get trigger happy with GW attribution.

Well played, sir.

TBH, I do the opposite...my final forecast compoisite will be derived from 1951-2010 climo, but I will label it as 1991-2020 in an effort to account for CC. I started doing that last year.

This is true, although the late 80s and early 90s were petty comparable in terms of snowfall....obviously not temps. No debate there.

I understand your argument...I just don't fully agree with it. I think part of this unfavorable storm track is regression to the mean after getting high off of a decade that dealt 40" winters out like crack. And I am convinced that even if NYC gets 50" in another winter, you won't change your mind. It will be "they are done now in this new and even warmer, climate"....keep kicking the can.

2020-2021 didn't have below average heights per se, but there were certainly some lower heights and colder air knifing into the country.

2017-2018 had some decent troughing....I mean, did I pull nearly 4' in March with a ridge??

I promise...if we get beyond the next solar min and nothing has changed, then I will fully capitulate. I wish I could say the same for the other side if NYC sees 50".

I don't agree with this, but it's no sense arguing because this topic is so politicized....no one is ever going to change the other's mind. My guess if that even if it happens, the debate will still wage on because it will get worked into the narrative some how...."Well, we are fortunate we had a mismatch, which I saw comeing when the October MJO spiked...but it won't happen again". Long story short...it's like politics. No one is ever going to change their mind or admit that they are wrong...and around, around we will go-

A moderate RONI implies a pattern that appears to be correalting to a degree comensurate with said strength...regardless of whether or not the La Nina is coupled. All I care about in a seasonal outlook. The RONI doesn't measure the how well La Nina is coupled...MEI does that.

36.9 for the low here.

Side piece?

More like parade of lakes cutters/redevelopers.

It's incredible how many people are incapable of nuanced thought...it has to be one extreme or the other. Either CC doesn't exist/won't impact winter, or "snowy seasons are a thing of the past". Either side loses credibility instantly with me. Jesus...accept the fact that CC is real and is impacting our wintrers, but it can still snow...both are true. I should focus my practice on Dialectical Behavioral Therapy for weather folks...I'd make a killing.

The CANSIPS would be a good winter for the NE....period.

Right...this is what the MEI and RONI better convey. I agree the west PAC issue must be considered ...only thing that is keeping me measured. That said, I view that as more of a cap and don't expect this season to be bad.

Stop focusing on on ONI. RONI and MEI will border on moderate.

Yea, I don't buy it being that dry...just commenting on the output.

Who needs snow when the demise of society is imminent-