I wonder if that seemingly omnipresent bundle of energy in the SW CONUS inhibits any subtle amplification of that clipper....may be more more likey for things to trend towards the GEM camp than the GFS.
Be honest about one thing...what would you be saying to folks like @MJO812at this point in the season if cold had been largely relegated to the long term charts Not to say that it won't warm up, because it will.