40/70 Benchmark

I could totally see a Modoki El Niño next year.

I just meant for January, not the season.

I didn't feel anything in Methuen.

No, I think my forecast has been decent....just taking about the winter.

I'm resigned to failure for another season at this point....however, I do see reason for optimism moving forward this decade.

Yes.

See, this is why I can't wrap my mind around people hugging the IRI guidance like 9 months out....Christ, just last fall they had La Nina failing.

2008 also peaked late, and was followed by a healthy el Nino....its the best analog in terms of ONI and is the reason I never gave up on La Nina when most did.

Eric Fisher bought it...he was going 10-14".

Not so warm up here near the frosty Atlantic...he needs to move farther away from that nasty equator.

Right...but they tossed my 31" in Marxh 2018....not sure how that works.

-0.2 again this AM....decent stretch of cold, fake or not.

I like your chances

BTW, anyone associating use of that analog with 90" in 30 days or 115" on the season is the weenie.

Some Light Snow Possible Mid Week Primarily Northern Sections Synoptic Overview: On Tuesday, a modest northern stream parcel of energy will emerge out of a split flow and eject over a western-biased PNA ridge, and into the Great Lakes. This clipper system will then resume more of an east-southeast track around the base of the departing polar vortex that will take it into New York State on Tuesday night. The system is likely to have limited room for amplification given the combination of cut-off energy over the southwestern CONUS in association with the southern branch, as well as a PNA ridge that is both fairly meager and western biased. Potential Storm Tracks: The forecast modest degree of amplification of this clipper system means that it is likely to track at least somewhat to the north of southern New England, rather than bodily through the region, as modeled by the GFS model, which would imply several inches of snowfalls similar to the last storm. The Canadian guidance tracks the system significantly further to the north, across northern New England, and produces little if any snow across the area. While the European model represents somewhat of a compromise solution in which the storm tracks just to the north of the area, across southern Vermont and New Hampshire. This scenario would yield perhaps an inch or two of snow north of the Mass pike and most especially north of route 2, which may represent the most viable solution. The southern track of the GFS is the least preferred outcome at this time. Stay tuned for an update on Tuesday if necessary. First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/some-light-snow-possible-mid-week.html

Weenie me all you want, but if we have an El Niño next year, its likely to a modest Modoki and ENSO in conjunction with the solar cycle will render 2014-2015 a quality analog.

I think the dire times are done after this year....largely due to the Pacific, as descending solar post MAX is rough for -AO/NAO for a few years...but TBH, +AO/NAO and a great PAC is probably the ideal paradigm for NE in terms of snowfall.

12z AI looks about dead-nuts on 00z.

Go back and look at the PNA ridge prior to the 1/11 fail...its like the spitting incarnation of this one.

On paper, its a cold pattern that garners intrigue, but ultimately doesn't produce much.

One obnoxious trend this season is for all of the PNA ridges to not only be west-based and positioned off of the west coast, but have a positively tilted, SW-NE lean that makes it very difficult to for anything to amplify enough to come up the coast.

I would lean into oncoming traffic as an alternative.

00z AI

The EURO is a compromise....GEM takes it over NNE. The EPS looks a hair N of the OP.