40/70 Benchmark

I went back in early November with a peak RONI of -1.2 to -1.4 and a peak MEI of between -1.0 and -1.2.

The latter IMO.

I still can't believe that trend reversed so close...its like the inverse of Jan 2015.

I knew that N stream would end up aggressive...this is why I talked it up when it looked like the s stream would play ball at like day 3-4 prior to phase.

I actually never relented calling for a huge winter and was getting mocked by mid January...

This La Nina was a low key tricky one...usually people assume a weak event will be easy, but I have found it can be the opposite.

While I blew it on the snow this weekend that isn't going to happen, I was all over this late blooming La Niña....people bail don it left and right.

Back to Regularly Scheduled "Cold & Dry" First Half of January Weekend Storm No Longer Anticipated Due to Sudden Reversal of Trends It became apparent early on Sunday that there was a definitive trend amongst all guidance to no longer hold back southern stream energy. This would subsequently afford it the opportunity to phase, at least to some degree, on Friday with a descending parcel of northern stream energy. Thus fostering the development of a significant winter storm this weekend. The thought process was that this type of a trend being evident across all guidance to varying degrees within 4 days of the potential phase was definitive evidence that guidance had an adequate handle on the southern stream evolution. Thus the likelihood of at least an eventual partial phase was relatively high, which is what led the conclusion that an impactful winter storm was likely. However, as turns out, guidance in fact did not yet have an accurate portrayal of the southern stream. Southern Stream Holding Back Eliminates Phasing Prospects It became evident by early Tuesday morning that the expectation that the southern stream energy would eject early enough to link up with the northern parcel would be incorrect, as guidance began to rapidly reverse that trend. This reversal is likely at least partially due to models keying on on seperate northern stream piece of energy that would disrupt the western CONUS ridge at the precise time that it was to assist in triggering the downstream phasing and coalescing of energy that would facilitate the development of the east coast storm next weekend. Ironically enough, this outcome is very similar to the original expectation from late last week that the first half of January would remain cold and dry. Although it is rare for trends in guidance to completely reverse once within 3-4 days of lead time, it is not impossible, and the assumption of Eastern Mass Weather that this would not be case in this instance proved incorrect.

Whatever....most on air mets equivocated more out of appreciation for the sensitivity of the situation...I consciously made a decision not to it, so have to own it....though not a forecast, per se....I openly hedged and was wrong.

Oh, btw...I blew it on this. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/back-to-regularly-scheduled-cold-dry.html

Probably...

Well, apparently I need divine intervention for snow in December because the cold didn't work very well.

Where is @bluewavewith that boiling SST plot of the West Pacific when I need him.

I will bet anything February is a respectable month for me snowfall wise.....at least near average and probably better.

100% literally, they were better for me....I had a 19" event one year ago...Dec 2022 I narrowly missed a huge one right before Xmas if not for a polar beer queen sending the PV to phase too far west....January 2023 was active with reasonable snowfall, and in March 2023 I JUST missed another huge event due to bizarre nipple low delaying a transfer. I would take those past 2 winters X100 over this cold, dry, cracked rusty, back alley coat hanger of a season.

I think I liked phase 5 better-

Honestly, the only reason I didn't start the thread at the precise hour that he did is because it slipped my mind...if you look, I made my "its coming" blog post on Monday night right as he was starting the thread. What can I say....it didn't work out. 9/10 when you get a unanimous trend like that among guidance at day 4, it doesn't reverse, but in this case it did. The added bonus was the N steam also shit the bed, so we don't have to deal with the near miss, 3 " on the s shore BS.

I think February will be decent in terms of snowfall....expecting a good, 'ole fashioned overunning/SWFE type of pattern with a cold Canada...not saying December 2007 or anything.....but should be some plowable snowfall.

Ohhhh nooooooes....Not that! We really need some snow...

Some hints of a Modoki El Niño next year...and with +NAO growing more likely due to descending solar, maybe we'll finally have a decent season here.

Did you specifically call for December to be the mismatch month? I remember the mismatch posts not really specifying a particular month...ie seasonal forecast. I ended up focusing on January, but obviously it ended up including December, too.

Yea, brutal.....bring on RNA.

Yea, I am all set with the +PNA/-NAO stretch for awhile....pre season, I called for milder, RNA Feb, but not the prohibitively warm type...IE overrunning and SWFE, which can be a good pattern for me.

Honestly...with 2" on the season here on the NH border in N Mass, I am ready to take a Stab at that pattern....it won't be any less snowy and if I get porked with snowfall again, at least it will be warmer.

How is your call for a incredibly warm winter going? I think most would agree that I have no issue owning a wrong forecast (or hedge), so I'm not sure what your point is. I think my seasonal idea looks pretty good.