40/70 Benchmark

No, I agree...all I am intimating, and he appears to have become defensive. All I am saying is that I don't think this most recent 9 year stretch is a great period of time to test that theory because the baseline pattern was so awful, anyway. I'm not saying that identical patterns wouldn't necessarily yield less overrunning than they did 70 years ago...they probably would. But we need to remain mindful overattribution.

Yup.

The fast flow down your GI

I'm not even so much impugning the premise as I am merely arguing that there is another more obvious cause that is perfectly viable.

I don't agree-sorry. You are going to get a lower frequency of prolific overrunning snowstorms in a -RNA/+EPO/+WPO pattern, which has been the predominate paradigm since 2015....that was the case in 1763, and it's the case now. Take 2013-2014 for instance.....the fast flow wasn't prohibitive of overrunning that season, was it?

I remember DT in like late November-early December essentially guaranteeing that we wouldn't see La Niña and mocking the CFS. Nice to see some validation after all of the time I put into that over the summer and fall. Now if it would just snow, that would be cool, too.

And the shitty air masses make overrunning less likely, too.

No, I understood just fine...my point is that I don't think that the last 9 years are a great sample because it's been so damn warm due to the awful Pacific.

Yes...but my point is that during +PNA/-EPO, as we have seen this year....the cold is there, which is a necessary component for overrunning.

Well, the fact that the pattern has been constant -PNA/+EPO/+WPO may have something to do with that, too.... all of the arctic highs have been out west...now this year, they aren't. No one is denying CC...but we can't totally dismiss fundamental synoptics, either....the pattern has largely sucked for 8 years....and it would have sucked 100 years ago given the aforementioned telecon alignment...albeit colder.

Well, how often have we seen appreciable +PP over se Canada that are of arctic origin?? I think we will/have been seeing that this year....add a WAR, and bang.

One they pull all of that shit, you know a juicy Modoki El Niño will arrive next year lol

Just overrun an arctic dome, and/or shear the shit out of a SW at a high enough latitude owed to a WAR and ...presto-

Well, that compressed medium primarily inhibits major cyclogensis, no? Overrunning/SWFEs are one potential avenue around that...

Yea, I could sense I would get called on that-

This is of course assuming nothing major pops up in January, which is still entirely possible....but I'm starting have some doubts.

Probably end up another subpar year, but I do not expect a bottom-dweller, either. February will be a "worse" look on paper, but I'll bet it's significantly more prolific in terms of SNE snowfall.

I think we could see a nice stretch late month into February with a string of moderate events...kind of like a poor man's 12/2007 or 2//2014.

Yea...same. More power to those who consider a mood flakes a "snowy day", whether it's genuine or not....I can appreciate the ability to take it as it comes and not grow bitter.

This is precisely the type of winter that I have positively zero use for....cold, nasty, biting wind and dry as a witch's c1It. Yea....please blast a 0* WC into the car seat as I carry my newborn into an appointment, but make sure not to give me any substantive snow to track, while hooking up everywhere else on the east coast. Reminds me of March 2014...equally miserable weather the month I lost my dad. Neat trick-

Do we still have people waiting with bated breath for model output on this?

You know the season sucks when "continued improvement" is followed up by "C-1".

I agree with you on this.. Here are my February thoughts from November: February 2025 Outlook February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972 The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward. The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times. "SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events-

Okay, I know there was some January (2022) and March mismatch periods that were referred to (2018), so I must have missed the post where you hilighted December as the mismatch month. Nice call on that....I thought it would be January.

210 pages for 210 flakes region wide, and half of those flakes are posting in this forum.