40/70 Benchmark

Great baseball analogy, a sport in which analytics has become an increasingly large component of the game....analystics would argue that this will eventually regress to the mean. Our batting average was well above our expected batting average last decade and this decade that is reversing, hence the regression. Now, I understand the valid arguments that this is more than simple regression and while that may be true, it is gong to take some time to know for certain. Each of those 4 season were -WPO, except for 2017-2018, which was carried by the huge March and epic NAO blocking....again, no argument from me that the +WPO attributabed PAC jet is a problem right now.

I think its also important to note that were in an incredibly extreme -PDO regime for a few years and will take time to reverse that....I am sure there will be some initial resistance, but the PDO has come up to coincide with those initial hints of change last season. The baseline assumption regarding these cycles and circulations is preedicated on what has happened in the past....while we can make suggestions as to how that may be changing, it will take time to prove that one way or another.

I'm sure there have been failed attempts in the past, too...I don't care to sort through dailies for 4 hours, but if you do, then be my guest. Bottom line is that it didn't actually shift, nor is it expected to do so for several more years. Off the top of my head, though I'm sure you will examine the dailies and find some inconsistency...but February 2000 featured an uncharacteristically +PNA during a La Nina, and then of course we had the 2000-2001 season that must have had everyone convinced that the Pacific had flipped....yet 2001-2002 happened. Bottom line is we need to see where we are in the early 2030s.

It also took several years for the PDO to shift follwing the strong EL Nino of 1972-1973, so that make sense.

Never heard of that... Even if we did warm ENSO at all for next winter, it would make no sense to incorporate warm ENSO analogs for this summer and fall.

I think that and the PDO will flip around the turn of the decade....I know Chris disagrees, but we will know within a few years. My guess is the debate will never end...certain folks will find a way to dovetail what ever happens into their own conceptualization of CC.

May be that will be the -AMO in this new climate we are in....never know....

Great back-loaded winter in 2012-2013, but I'm sure that its an impossible feat in the new, warmer climate.

No, I agree with you. I was just being an ass, but truth be told, tell me that this...... isn't this in longer and more detailed verbiage....

"Diminishing trades used to be a sign that La Nina was relenting, but in this new, warmer climate, we will end up seeing cool ENSO, anyway".

We figured....

Oh man... Are you going to be back up this way at all?

Hopefully he did because it will be less faux severe posts to wade through this afternoon.

Group discount?

As long its weak, that isn't a big deal.

There was a system in between the January snowstorm and the February blizzard of 1978 that was suppose dto be snow and ended up being rain.

Yea, I thought we could see a modest warm ENSO late last winter, but have since backed off of that.

I'm not arguing that the active jet isn't inhibiting snowfall opportunities, or that forecasters shouldn't be mindful of it. My point is that it wasn't the only reason we didn't see a large east coast snowstorm last year. That said, I also think the jet plays a role making it more difficult to get a well placed PNA ridge. Its both.

Yea, I think that is applicable more for your area through the LES belts and into NNE....but I do agree with Chris that CC maybe starting to infringe on SNE snowfall climo....at least a portion of SNE, anyway. That said, we are simply in a hostile pattern for SNE that is less so for your area over to NNE.

It goes both ways...there are plenty of deniers, too....so I get why some feel the need to overcompensate on the other end of the spectrum, but we need to all make a concerted effort to be a bit more moderate or else objectivity becomes compromised.

CC probably did play a role in that, too....I am in agreement with the idea that it fosters greaters variability with the overall trend line pointed downward, but that doesn't mean that you have to go robocop on people to tie it to every missed opportunity for a snowstorm. There have always been misses and rough stretches during which the misses far outnumbered the hits.

At the end of the day, the snow drought is a product of CC enhancing what already would have been a very hostile multidecadal base state. I don't know what is unreasonable about that...jesus, CC is so politicized that its now just like actual politics in that everyone is so polarized that its the few moderates that bare the brunt of the cross fire.

It was off the west coast when the storm took place, which is all that matters. Yes, the jet was a factor, but so isn't the poor positioning of the ridge. I don't know why you inexoprably seek agreement on a 100% CC attribution for everything.

Believe it or not, sometimes the big storm doesn't work out and the reason why isn't directly attributable to climate change. Even in those two monthly composites, its easy to see that the January 2022 pattern was much more suportive relative to January 2025, when the lowest heights were right over the NE. The vortex was a little further NW, over SE Canada in 2022, which was less supressive.

First of all, that is a monthly mean composite, but the ridge was actually a bit more favorably positioned during the timeframe that the blizzard took place. Secondly, the better positioning of the ridge in conjunction with the strongly negative WPO that was in place that month (and season) made that pattern more conducive than this past January.