40/70 Benchmark

I'm just messing around, before Bluewave drowns me in the warm pool or raindance badgers me about how differently the Mexican monsoon is behaving from those years....that's just kind of what those H5 looks remind me of.

Solid Consensus for NDJ H5:

Geez....even the CFS isn't warm for the NE next winter. That thing is usually run by a tag team of Bluewave and snowman. Looks a lot like the CANSIPS at H5.

I'd kill for 2016-2017 right now...featured about normal snowfall and I haven't seem that since 2017-2018.

There are a couple of posters in this thread that are passive aggressively hunting that very response.

I just gave a reason why it didn't snow despite a +PNA and -WPO....the PNA ridge was too far west. How am I placing too much stock in the teleconnections??? You are the one that just said it didn't snow despite a -WPO period last season.... I would argue that the subtropical ridge won't remain so robust should the WPO flip negative....we argee the west Pacific warmth is largely responsible for that ridge, which is synonymous with a +WPO. This is largely why the past -PNA\-NAO intervals worked out better.....they were -WPO.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that with the +WPO/-PNA expectation.

Something changed last season...irregardless of storm track, I think we are going to be seeing better antecedent air masses in southeast Canada this season, which will allow for more significant "front enders" that have been harder to come by in SNE and the northern mid Atlantic over the past several seasons.

I have pointed out to you before, the position of the PNA ridge also sucked, though......you are on this crusade to prove that replica patterns of the past are no longer producing. I don't think that is entirely true.

I agree with you...as Chuck pointed out. Only positives for winter I suspect will be the EPO and some periods of blocking given the QBO.

SST feedback isn't a huge factor, but I think it can act to amplify and protract once it really gets established....JMO.

I like this new pattern better....same with respect to snowfall. I'll take 7 straight clunker seasons to score a wild 3 footer, as opposed to more seasons with 5" above average.

Greater variance....same with snowfall.

Stay safe

Yea, that cooling of the subsurface towards the dateline was expected with the weakening of the WWBs....will probably progress eastward amd at least somewhat upwards.

Personally, I'll take warmer if it means wetter, which it should. Last season was the worst of the past several for me.

This is one example of why GW doesn't always mean a slew of cat 5 hurricanes.....the low thermal gradient between the subtropical and tropical ocean is fostering this stifling stability, which is why the tropics are quiet.

2014 is the best analog, but I didn't include it because it was El Nino.

Maybe I'm nuts, but perhaps the staff would know if you called??

I actually prefer the opposite.

This composite below is strongly QBO and solar derived.

I think February could be pretty balmy before some potential late season stratospheric shennanigans-

Notice the two steps forward, one step back type of progression towards the shift back to a warmer Pacific phase that occurred in both 2000 and 2012, where as 2000-2001 flipped strongly positive before 2001-2002 was negative again....2012-2013 was strongly positive and 2013-2014 flipped negative again. This is what I expect to see moving forward....next year will be negative again, but change is afoot IMHO. Its a several year process that will take the latter portion of this decade, but after that we should also be approaching solar min.