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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, 3-6 panic attacks for Scooter with a 50% chance of MDD.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    We always get perect winter patterns in spring now. Memorial Day 2005 redux.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bodies reburied?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We were referring to NE coastal areas when the 7 year comment was made. Like I have said previously, modern snowdfall is undermeasured more often today than you imply due to mixed precipitation events and many observers not utilizing the 6 hour swipe method.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said to Chuck, can't say confidently we are switching to +PDO yet, but I think its close...within the next few years.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I fininished 2014-2015 with 115" and 2017-2018 was 88.5"....my long term average is in the lower 60s.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is pure nonsense....I don't care that you can dig up articles supporting it. My statement about 7 years was in relation to CC drastically lowering snowfall....what I said was 7 years ago I had just had two months of over 60" of snow within a 3 year window, so I'm not sure how on earth one could confidently conclude that CC was lowering my snowfall at that point.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seriously, though...its as plausible a theory as anything else. Just going to have to let things play out into the next decade.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    You mean to tell me you think we will remain in a -PDO pattern as a result of CC for all of eternity? I never would have guessed that....in other news, I have a hunch the sun angle will begin to lower in about 5 weeks
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, maybe we take one last step backwards in that regard next season before the -PDO cycle takes its last breath.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I agree with all of this...I wasn't trying to imply that I expect to enter the -NAO muiltidecadal cycle around the next solar min...I meant literally maybe one season that averages more negative. My larger point concerning solar min is that if we don't see a good winter through the next solar min, then I will start to consider CC as a larger contributor. I do not expect a flip in the NAO decadal cycle....PDO, I do.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe so, but we should get thrown a bone around or shortly after solar min.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly. ..that is what I honed in on.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Out winter seasons are like the Celtics now....all or nothing...either the 3s hit, or they don't and they stumble.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was saying it last summer even before publishing in early November. +QBO and cold ENSO during solar max usually hasn't ended well for the east coast.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's where I am right now....but like I said, if we keep rolling snake eyes through the next solar min, then I will change my tune.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I definitely agree with this...marginal events having more trouble.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I pointed that out as well. I am not denying it....but I feel it's also due to pattern, which is part of the regression. CC is positively a factor and if in give years form now I am posting about a 12th consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, then I will be of the opinion its more due to CC.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just to be clear....I am waiting on deciding whether or not CC is already having a larger impact on snowfall than simple regression throughout the NE coast, NOT whether or not CC is taking place....or whether or not CC is already impacting snowfall in the coastal mid atl.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see. Maybe you're right, but this is still mostly regression in my mind. 7 years aso I had just concluded my second calendar month of over 60" of snowfall within a 3 year window.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, precisely. CC is undoubtedly playing a role, but I am going to maintain that simple regression is playing a larger one...at least for the next severals years or so. My mean seasonal snowfall since 2014-2015 just slipped below average after this past season, despite 7 consecutive duds....so I am defitely more open to a larger CC attribution if this should continue into next decade.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe it edged a bit east, but it never looked great.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the system lacking cohesiveness was do at least in part of the crap PNA ridge. I agree with you, though....CC definitely isn't making it any easier, but its not the only reason.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    March 2015 $hit the bed for my area...everything supressed into the southern half of the region...was cold and dry as the epic pack slowly fossilized and eorded. Cost me a seasonal snowfall record that I was sure I was going to get.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Most"....right...not all. I actually did a very good job of doing so in relation to that particular forecast, as I never "took the cheese", so to speak. The PNA ridge was displaced too far west and off of the coast, as it was for most of the season. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html
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