40/70 Benchmark

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not. I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

I the crux of the issue is that while many of your claims likely have at least some validity, most view it has natural variability and that should be the baseline assumption for now. I know you ultimately assert that you are open to new information moving forward and are not resigned to this being permanent, but I think this issue is that your tone seems to suggest that your baseline assumption is that it will be permanent moving forward. Maybe I am off base, but that is how it comes across to me.

You are preaching to the choir....I'm in your camp, however, its obviously going to begin impacting NYC snowfall before it is mine. I don't think Don (I know I am not) is convinced that NYC is alreading being impacted, either....he was simply entertaining the possibility that NYC is in the early stages.

I think part of the disconnect between us is due to the difference in perspective given our locales. This is simply regression to the mean for me, as evidenced by the 60" average since 2015, though that looks to drop after this season. See Don's point regarding NYC potentially being in the early stages of decline, but not yet Boston...I'm on the NH border.

It probably won't end up a ratter....probably in the 2009-2010 camp....below average snowfall and immensely frustrating.

If we were talking a Dec 2007 stretch, then I would consider it....but 14" isn't worth it. I'll take a 30"er that begins melting after it falls.

Big one that melts...like last year.

1 more warning even would safely take it out of ratter territory and place into merely the "shitty" destination.

Well- I have 50% of average...do the math.

Better, still not great..I'd like it bit further east, but at least its not leaning positively and it extends up to higher latitudes into the AO domain...as you said. Now lets see how reality plays out

Hopefully the orientation and positioning of the ridge out west changes.

Honestly maybe next year.

Something will happen. You'll waste another 8 days staring at the laptop while drug lords overtake the city.

I must have 3.75" of water

I'm right between that 10 and 18", so the 14.5" here jives.

Another late season se US snow threat?

Ridge in the same dysfunctional position out west that it has been all season.

I'm just gonna keep on driving with the window up and the tunes blaring-

Rereading and this line near the end is very fair. I see why you felt I mischaracterized your stance. I am at work and don't always read exhuastively. I would give it until past the early 2030s, through the solar min and anticipated Pacific phase change.

You also don't want it leaning to the NE like that. We are certainly experiencing CC, but we have also always experienced shitty patterns that have lasted for the better part of a decade....maybe Chris is 100% correct and CC is causing this, but all I am saying is that that shouldn't be assumed because we need more time. I have gone on record as saying if we get through the early 2030's and are still struggling like this, then I will buy it. Chris said he is open to more data in the future, well I am, too.

After my last couple of seasons, I savor any correct forecast. Sorry, last time.

I'm not the least bit curious...only reason why I am periodically checking in here is for the same reason that I stare at fatal car accidents as I slowly pass by in traffic.

How many major NE US blizzards have seen with se-ne oriented PNA ridge off of the west coast? I'm going to venture to say not many- That works further down the coast, but it limits phasing potential and ability to turn the corner.

First of all, I have no issue with the bolded part of your statement....that isn't really speculation, or a hypothesis since we have decades of data to validate the notion that the climate is in fact warming. As far as your assertions regarding the warmer SSTs east of Japan inducing a faster northern jet that is making BM tracks exceedingly difficult, that may very well be true, but I don't that accounts for all of the missed opportunity....there are always going to nuances within the larger scale flow due to variability; CC doesn't prevent that. Frankly, having a confluence or a PV lobe too close in ME is just bad luck. Maybe your point regarding the jet is part of the reason why these storms aren't phasing proficiently, but we haven't had great ridges out west, either. Here is an excerpt from the blog post that I made on Friday night, cancelling this storm (never bought in for this reason) as guidance was ostensibly converging on a major NE blizzard. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html However, there is ample reason to doubt that this system will phase proficiently enough with the southern stream wave moving up the coast to impact the forecast area in a major way. Note the similarity in the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th. This has been a very prevalent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures. In closing, I have a question for you....why do you think the 1950s and 1980s, especially the 1988-1992 period, were so poor for snowfall on the east coast?

An element of the warming is certaintly anthropogenic, but how much is nebulous.