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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO is a valid argument against. I should have explicitly mentioned that yesterday, although in my previous post I did say it gets more supportive beyond the 20th, when it hits phase 7. Like John always says, though...MJO is something you want on your side, but it's not 100% prohibitive....it either constructively or de-constructively interferes. I will say it is increasing in amplitude attm...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Give it until tomorrow, but doesn't look great now....still optimistic about the pattern looking ahead. Should see the February PV split show up soon if not already.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is going to be at least a warning event for the eastern 2/3 of us or so...at least.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shit, I HATE getting wrapped into PBP on a week night...tough to sleep. First time all year it warranted it. I'm out-
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't expect those amounts unless it phased perfectly like 12z....but he difference between 12z and 00z was absolute noise at this range.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mentioned Dec 5-6, 1981 to Kev early today....requires a deeper dive but wonder I there is analog potential....ironically enough, the early SSW was very like that year.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Snowfall output is actually a hair less than 18z, but I thought that run took a step back towards 12z at H5.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The southern end of the vorticity runs out ahead a bit as it hits the coast, otherwise that is a blizzard. Who knows is that's real...it could be an artifact of modeling.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I knew he would lose that as soon as he said it.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think all of will take that at this point. No complaints.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    My guess is a median solution right between 12z and 18z. Not as cohesive as 12z.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Little more vorticity lagging behind than 12z...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably not quite that level, but better than 18z.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Through hr 81 00z looks. bit like 12z...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't notice bc I never expected anything out of that event...never viewed a model lol Took one look at the ridge out west and checked out.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I care is to see it west...I don't expect it to be consistently skillful with respect to cyclogenesis.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have heard a few people make that comparison...even pattern wise.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    49 for the high here. All patches wiped...just bankings.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty distinct trend. GFS (not 12z) has to be the model of choice here
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Second half of January into February was always go-time for me this season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I buy it.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna hold you to that-
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it would get going in time....
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I stand with the pope.
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