40/70 Benchmark

Probably...this can't go on much longer.

Does it matter given that's January??

Hi of 38 today.

CC in a nutshell....much larger impact on daily mins than maxes....not to imply it does't impact maxes at all because it certainly does.

"B: La Nina's are statistically correlated to warmer Februaries. This is "field-presumptive," admittedly. If anyone has qualitative information I will not take it as refutation - be my guest. And obviously, like all inference techniques ... the interpretation should be used in the spirit of "tendency" Caveat with this being your point about ENSO being less coupled with the atmosphere....we have certainly seen it this year with the WWB erupting in late Novie to kick off the extended PNA regime that we have been in. Not to mention this La Niña is very meager to begin with....weak ENSO are more prone to other influences, anyway, aside from any CC inference RE difficulty coupling.

Page out of the 2007-2008 playbook-

I know, but some will ...do you doubt it?

When it's 80 in Boston during February....it's CC....when it snows in Atlanta, it's CC.... PS: Atlanta has more than double my seasonal snowfall in mid Jan

2011 is the only year I doubled up on as an analog for February.

Yea, I only used it as an ENSO analog...not seasonal.

Exactly. I think it will be a better pattern than 2018-2019 because of the WPO....should be some bonafide SWFE mixed in, as opposed to just 2-4" front enders.

PNA and WPO are also important.

Do these look the same to you...because these are BOTH -EPO....

Speaking of the 2008 ENSO analog I have be talking up all last fall and into the winter....here is the peak on Xmas for both. 24DEC2008 22.9-0.3 24.4-0.8 25.6-1.0 27.5-0.9 25DEC2024 23.1-0.2 24.7-0.5 25.5-1.1 27.6-0.7

This was essentially the theme of my outlook....I would expect that to come to fruition for the most part, though I'm sure there will obviously be some +WPO intervals accompanied by a warmer look.

More on a -EPO, but +WPO.

Pretty much a Modoki....but that isn't such a big deal when it's weak like this....this is a lot like the 2008-2009 La Niña. 01JAN2025 23.7 0.1 25.3-0.1 25.8-0.7 27.7-0.6

I mis-spoke in the previous post...that is not -WPO, its the opposite...but it looks like the NAO is south biased and kind of neutral, so some that cold should be able to bleed east in modified fashion.

Probably more influenced by extra tropical influences, thus variable....which isn't necessarily bad heading into February during cool ENSO.

Keep in mind, that composite is just raw MJO derived....and the resultant pattern will obviously be influenced by other factors , which will be (de)constructively interfered with by the MJO and thus the resultant pattern is likely to be more nuanced than that

I would especially like the look in the GL and NNE, but not prohibitive for us.

Looks to me like it's a strong -WPO/RNA look....lots of cold around, but focused west...with a pretty neutral signal over most of the east, albeit a touch mild in NE. Def. a risky look as far as storm track with the RNA/flat Aleutian ridge.

Tip (no pun intended) of the cap to you, John....I am too emotionally drained from the past few weeks to even look for long range threats yet. Kind of quasi-checked out while my orifices heal prior to the next violation.

Perusing the latest modeled lapse rates with a 40oz of formula?

Right, which is what I am banking on....maybe we keep whiffing and I hit my futility mark, but I'll bet against that. probably not this season, but the tide will turn at some point.