40/70 Benchmark

It was a blowtoch then....the winter sucked.

That's a general 3/4" to an inch or rainfall....I mean, what has happened to us when that isn't considered awful on a Saturday

I agree with all of this.

February 1983 Megalopolis event was very good for my area (about 18"), but January 2016 was a fringe job....I got like 2" of pixie dust. Too bad the southeast ridging wasn't as strong in this "new climate" as it was back in 1983 ; )

For my current location, you can probably exchange 1995-1996 for 2000-2001...my area now did much worse in the Jan 7, 1996 blizzard and much better in the March 5, 2001 event than my former locale.

Yea, I'm going to bet against a -NAO at this juncture, but will see once I do my polar domain research and you get your index calculation in.

My area was a local min....the Worcester hills and Boston area down to the south short did much better. i was only likw 10-15" above average...pretty blah. Similar to 2013-2014 in that regard....those are my two most overrated winters...they both lack signature events.

1995-1996 2014-2015 2010-2011 2004-2005 2017-2018 2002-2003

NNE did fine....it's SNE that keeps getting the train run on it by mother nature.

Yea, I think the real flip is near the turn of the decade.

I think everyone agrees with that...my contention is more that we are just in a shitty multidecdal pattern that its likely enhanced by CC.

I think it's prudent to be skeptical, but I am willing to entertain it.....I just think its folly to speak in absolutes and act as if its a forgone conclusion.

It's also much easier to use any "forecast and analysis technique" with great success when you only go out three weeks into the future...start issuing an actual seasonal effort during the fall. I don't mean to be contentious or undermine your efforts, but if you are so confident in your analysis techniques and vision of where the globe is headed, then take it to the next level and do seasonals.

I don't think you are conceptualizing analogs correctly if you are waiting for one to "verify"....it's not about finding a replica season, it's about determining which analog seasons have value and what element of each analog season offers said value. I thought the 2013-2014 (favorable east Pacific with roughing over NE USA) analog held a great deal of value last season....as did the 1999-2000 (PNA interludes during cool ENSO and too little too late SSW) analog. 1972-1973 (Pacific cold phase competing with potent warm ENSO) was a very telling analog for the prior season. 2008-2009 was an exemplary ENSO analog that I incorporated to successfully diagnose the late-blooming nature of the modest cool ENSO episode, which ultimately transitioned from east-based into a Modoki during a cooler NE us winter. The reason that last season was warmer than 2013-2014 is due to a combination of a vastly different West Pacific and background warming. I thinking understanding how to use analogs is of increasingly of paramount importance amid a fairly rapidly changing climate. Its crucial when using analogs to understand that we are operating in a warmer base state, agreed.

Chris is very bright and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he ends up being 100% correct, but it's still pretty speculative at this point.

Where did I imply that it wasn't logically sound??? The implication of my statement was that any deduction beyond the fact that there is baseline warming going on is speculation. I have been pretty consistent with expressing that his suggestions are very viable, but we need to get into the next decade to be certain. No one knows for sure how the warming is going to alter global oscillations and circulations moving forward...including Chris because if he did, I can promise you he wouldn't be camped out in front of his laptop posting on a weather forum like the rest of us. Funny thing is that he was actually arguing that I would do BETTER if a replica 2009-2010 season were to take place, as I am near the MA/NH border...so no denial here, which is the term you were looking for...cognitive dissonance is a term used to describe the internal strife that results from living in a manner that is in conflict with your own self esteem, or firmly held convictions, so its not a defense mechanism. Disagreeing with someone doesn't have to mean you are in conflict... its actually more frequently quite the opposite. As far as the "dumb"comment, usually those that feel the need to hurl those insults are working with the most pronounced deficits....I'll leave it at that-

It was a hypothetical statement....which inherently implies that it's not "locked" in...

The main issue with the 2013-2014 analog was that this past year was -EPO driven than -WPO, but if you compare H5 composites, there were plenty of similarities due to the fairly favorable extra tropical Pacific. 2012-2013 acted more like a warm ENSO event, with a mild December and a very active February/March.

I would suggest that you stop speaking in absolutes and folks would probably be more receptive to these theories.

This is because the 2023-2024 El Nino was partially masked by and competing with the forcing from the WPAC warm pool, which wasn't present during 2015 and 2009. Warm ENSO episode(s) later this decade and into the early 2030s should herald a regime change....but if not, then we will know something is up.

Not for a few more weeks....I'm a bit less optimistic overall than I originally was.

I think within a few years a more moderate El Nino could suffice, somewhere in between those two extremes....I am sure CC is enhancing this pattern, but its not entirely unprecedented, as the potent 1972-1973 El Nino also featured a great deal of MC forcing due to the Pacific cold phase. That ended later in the decade with the Pacific phase flip and a couple of meager warm ENSO events.

New England didn't get a great winter.

Exactly...that is what I have been saying. This is what I point out when Chris tries to explain that past -NAO/+PNA was more successful...they were -WPO.

Yep...left that out.