40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1976 was a great snow year for this area....tons of late-blooming Miller B systems. This year is like 1978-1979 and 1979-1980. -
2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The storm track has been vastly different than 2010-2011....but what's 90" in SNE between friends. -
2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh yea....plenty of that...but just pain-stakingly boring. Colder version of this year. The -PNA that year saved NE....but +PNA/-NAO combo this year has been a death-knell. -
I haven't even looked at that...just so meteorologically demoralized and resigned to failure. Something is just off-
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Better shot of me blogging about Kev's next colonoscopy.
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Man, I can't stand him. ...although I don't disagree that February has a decent shot at featuring above normal snowfall.....thing is that if I only get several more inches throughout January, a good February would still result in a near ratter type of season. Whiffing on December sucked, but it was manageable considering I expected a mild December...but whiffing on January snowfall is a game-changer.
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Wouldn't worry about it. I smell a rat...just saying....
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It does, but its a matter of when...probably not this year.
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Agree 100% and focused on that same period in my outlook, however, not feeling great about it right now.
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I certainly do not. January 2004 was very dry up here and the peak of the cold was more severe than Feb 2015...which of course was out snowmageddon. -
I never had high hopes for that.
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Euro had it for a few runs, but they weren't consecutive.
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We aren't there yet IMO....you also have to factor in that this year has in fact deviated from the prohibitively warm regime.
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I think we have already stated to see the beginning of the end of this longer term Pacific pattern, and will continue to see big changes throughout the 2nd half of this decade.
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I think if we get a modest El Niño next season, it would bode very well for us.....TBH, 2014-2015 maybe a good analog. (Not implying 100").
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Nope.
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Nice sucker-hole right where its been since 2018.
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I just calculated my mean seasonal snowfall for the 2012-2013 through 2023-2024 season (last year)...60.5". Regression is over for me, so if this season blows, it should begin going back in the other direction.
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Depends which day....
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I think in general people get too invested in long range guidance, but I thought it was warranted last week.
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Dude, I have 5.5" halfway through winter and I average 62-63". That Jan 11 potential was not just modelology.....that was an incredibly prominent signal that had enormous tele connector support...many pro mets compared it to March 1993-east.
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It certainly shouldn't rat out on paper, but it does have kind of a 1979-1980 vibe...
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I'm trying to post less these days because not much of it would be constructive....just so fed up with the weather.
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I'm not saying there is zero chance of snow for the balance of January....but the way this season has gone, I'm not not getting my hopes up unless we are at least inside of 4 days. Seems as though there is a moderate ceiling there for the 20th, so if absolutely everything breaks right, maybe we enter February in double-digits.
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False. I made it abundantly clear that some light snows were still possible from the northern stream, but I had zero interest in it. This really isn't that confusing. Its mid January and my seasonal total wouldn't muster a warning event.....immensely frustrating first half and Saturday hasn't changed that.
