40/70 Benchmark

I have zero appetite for mediocrity, in sports or weather- Either be a viable SB contender, or amass high draft picks and give me a day of intrigue in June.

In the interest of full disclosure, I am growing rather intrigued by the allure of a futility run...the mindset is akin to the one I have with respect to sports in that if you are going to suck, may as well end up with the first pick as opposed to the 4th (oops). If the avenue to avoiding futility is 5 3"ers, then I would rather get the record. OTOH, if you want to dump a foot or more in one event, then sure.

I focused on 23-25 last night in my write up...but in the end, it's probably the same issue we have had all year.....everything is progressing too quickly and just not aligned correctly to allow it to come together soon enough.

This is the window for increased volatility that I was alluding to in November....hopefully it produces, but I have my doubts.

Cold January with Notable Lack of Major Snowfall Poised to Continue Frigid Arctic Chill to Arrive on the Heels of Slight Snow Chance Sunday Night Although the month of January has evolved somewhat colder than anticipated thus far, the chilly temperatures have not translated to much in the way of snowfall. This was not entirely unexpected given that the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook called for most of the above average monthly allotment of snowfall to come between January 21 and February 4th, however, there is a considerable amount of doubt as to whether that will in fact be the case. Frigid Onset to Second Half of January Largely Unaccompanied by Snowfall The latter half of January looks to begin in much the same manner that the first half evolved, with the exception of the fact that the airmass early next week will be the coldest of the season thus far. The combination of west coast ridging and blocking within the NAO domain will send the polar vortex on yet another journey southward during the coming weekend as it descends out of James bay and into southeast Canada. At the same time, a weak wave of low pressure will pass offshore on Sunday night out ahead of the leading edge of the arctic airmass. While the bulk of the precipitation will remain offshore, it is not out of the realm of possibility that an inch or two of snowfall, perhaps up to 3" in some localized areas, could fall over especially the southeastern third of the region before it moves away and the arctic siege begins on Monday. Thereafter, the cold will moderate thoroughot the latter half of the week as the vortex begins to lift away over the Canadian maratimes. Then the final third of the month will represent a period of transition, as the polar blocking relinquishes its grip and the Pacific blocking reasserts itself. This will present an opportunity for a more significant storm system, as is the case with any period of mass flux. High Latitude Realignment to be Accompanied by Latter January Storm Possibility The expectation last fall was for the month of January to predominately feature plenty of high latitude blocking on the Pacific side that would be accompanied by a strong polar vortex, and thus a dearth of blocking over the arctic. However, while the polar vortex has in fact been appreciably strong, it has remained fairly uncoupled with the troposphere, which has allowed blocking within the NAO domain to remain rather prevalent, regardless. This may ultimately prove to be a case of delayed rather than denied, as there are signs that the appreciably strong polar vortex will begin to grow more coupled from the stratosphere down through the troposphere. What this will entail is a reconfiguration of the pattern in that the arctic will begin to neutralize (rising AO & NAO), while the greater heights reconfigure from the Atlantic to the Pacific side (descending EPO/WPO, ascending PNA). A hemispheric realignment of this magnitude will represent the type of mass flux and teleconnection modularity that will enhance the likelihood of the development of a major winter storm. This is evident on the Atlantic side. And the Pacific side between approximately January 23-25. While this is in accordance with the January 21-February 3 window identified last fall for a heightened risk of a major winter storm, ensemble support continues to be relatively meager, and a track out to sea remains the most likely outcome. Thereafter, the pattern moderates somewhat over the final third of the month, while also ostensibly becoming more conducive to increased snowfall throughout the forecast area. However, this does not appear to be a favorable pattern for major east coast snowstorms, and the similarities of the pattern thus far to some seasons that have managed to largely avoid snowfall across the area with surgical precision can not be denied.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/cold-january-with-notable-lack-of-major.html

Even 2002-2003 is another example....

Yes, up and down the east coast...a la 1995-1996.

Yea, I think we could see one around the turn of the decade, give or take.

I was thinking along the lines of statistics to back up my hypothesis, so I meant quantitative.

16-17 was like a normal winter in my area....maybe a few inches above.

Yea, but they are becoming more rare is my point...hypothesis, so don't ask for a quantitative anaiysis from Cornell lol

I was honestly going to do this pretty soon....as January looks like a lost cause. Will update this in a couple of weeks, but here are my thoughts from last fall. February 2025 Outlook February Analogs: 2011, 2008, 2000, 1999,1972 The polar vortex should begin the month very strong, but watch for a potential SSW from about mid month onward. The pace of moderate storms should increase for the first time all season, just as the warmer weather returns in February, however, a notable difference from many recent months of February is that it should not be prohibitively warm so as to entirely preclude some appreciable snowfall across the majority of the region. The month should finish 1 to 3F above average with near normal to perhaps just below normal snowfall. Northern New England should see above normal snowfall as the cold air source lurks close by in southeastern Canada, which will produce several front-end snowfall for much of southern New England and perhaps even into the northern mid Atlantic at times. "SWFE"....AKA "Southwest Flow Events-

When is our last south to north east coast bonanza?? 2002-2003? I mean, I guess you could argue seasons like 2010-2011, and maybe 2013-2014? But the former was definitely better in NE than the mid Atlantic. The latter wasn't really upper echelon up here. What we are usually seeing here in more modern times is that there are regions of "haves and have nots" once the seasonal tracks become established.....for instance, 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 it was up here....2020-2021 it was in NJ, while our area was in the compression bone-zone...this year its the mid Atlantic and southeast, and we are in the bone zone-compression field....again.

Like most CC attributions, there is some merit to it, but folks (not directed at anyone in particular) get carried away with it and exaggerate said attribution.

My thoughts with respect to the CC/increased compression correlation are that its not reducing the frequency of major storms at any one location, as like I said above, you are going to be more pone to compression issues somewhere when you displace a PV southward. However, I do think that it makes a repeat of seasons like 1995, where it was a an orgy up and down the east coast, a much taller task because we are more likely to see that aforementioned "zone of compression" than we were decades ago. ...THAT is a manifestation of CC.

I know.

Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine.

Not me, at this point. If I could opt out of this season right now, I would do so without blinking.

That is the higher ceiling, agreed. Fits within my preseason window, too.

Its recency bias...because we have seen -3SD RNA past couple of seasons.

This winter? May start blogging about them

Nah, I couldn't care less...just a joke.

Always a surefire sign of a particularly enthralling winter when the thread is littered with dialogue concerning different varieties of peach species as we cross the midway point of January.