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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, right....the western warm pool incites convective action over the MC, which mimics cool ENSO. No argument there....all I was saying is that it's easier to get a cool ENSO like expression than it is warm ENSO....but we require a stronger ENSO signal for it to be the primary catalyst these days, yes.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the opposite is true for La Nina....which is what the RONI reflects. The surrounding atmosphere is more of an impediment for the expression of warm ENSO.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not the case for New England. You tend to speak as though your climo applies to everyone.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have no clue why he is obsessing over the ONI...it's a La Nina, regardless.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice consensus emerging-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree completely with this...with the added caveat that I could see a northern stream KU that wouldn't do much for the mid atl.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, I'm north of Boston and have become a winter voyeur myself
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is precisely what I thought of. I think they are in error this time, but we shall see. CFS and CANSIPS are relatively cold.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough? I think they are wrong on that.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to be an Alaskan Ridge season to me.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys. https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a possibility this year-
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is about is quickly as you will ever see it, so agreed.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anomalies of that magnitude will never be adequately signaled in long term guidance....obviously given CC said anomalies are usually warm rather than cold these days.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we'll see a month that is decidedly positive.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would gladly take a repeat of that winter minus the trough down to the Baja....would have been a good season with a more pedestrian RNA.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not happening in this area.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said a "warmer version of that season adjusted for climate change"....which means it can still be a valid analog.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry, had to do a screenshot or this site drives me nuts over the size. CFS 2m temp anomaly forecast for JFM.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    As do I, but again....don't expect that pervasive of an RNA.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm sure it would be warmer for Xmas.
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