40/70 Benchmark

Welcome back!! 31.3 with about .25 to .50"

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Agree.

Pack is just about wiped out now...patchy.

My thought process is that while interior se MA may catch up late, they will start a bit slowly, so I just have them catching up. But I am concerned that spot may be another max.

I like ASH into interior se NH.

My take.

I'd have the warning to PYM.

Final Call for Quick Hitting Sunday Night Snows Slightly Heavier Amounts Expected Synoptic Overview: Currently a parcel of energy is beginning to veer around the approaching polar vortex that will supply the bout of arctic chill next week. It will then continue to round the base of the vortex and turn up the coast throughout tonight and into tomorrow. There is no deviation to this portion of the forecast rationale. However, there is one subtle change from First Call issued Thursday that does have fairly significant ramifications for the Final Call. Note that the position of the approaching polar vortex was over James Bay in the above guidance from Thursday, as compared to today's output posted below, which has the vortex slightly further to the north, and more over bodily over Hudson's Bay as opposed to James Bay, Canada. The implication of this further north position of the polar vortex is that ir would afford slightly more space for the energy rotating around its southern periphery and up the east coast to amplify and intensify slightly faster before exiting the area. This would result in somewhat heavier snowfall than indicated in the First Call. Expected Storm Evolution: Snowfall should breakout outcross the region late Sunday afternoon and early evening from southwest to northeast. Precipitation may commence as a mix along the south coast, and rainfall across extreme coastal southeastern Mass, the cape and islands. The low will begin to intensify more rapidly as it passes off shore later Sunday evening, which will cause heavier bands of snow to develop, especially just to the northwest of the nascent mid level lows. Where exactly the most intense and persistent banding develops will dictate which locales receives localized heavier amounts of snowfall, however the annotation below provides the best estimate. Any residual mixed precipitation and rainfall will transition to snow before precipitation ends during the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning, as the system pulls away into the Gulf of Maine. Final Call: First Call Issued Thursday, January 16th @ 10PM:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/final-call-for-quick-hitting-sunday.html

As quickly as kids allow...probably by 7 or 8.

Oops...that was NAM, but GFS isn't a perfect sig, either.

Best OMEGA is above the SGZ on the GFS....so perhaps some caution against assuming crazy ratios. Not exactly a pristine cross hair sig.

12z EURO JP me with 10"

I'm just being a dick at this point....I agree its a low-end warning event.

....its funny because its true-

Shield your eyes, @Sey-Mour Snow

Seems like the approaching PV has also trended a bit north over past coupe of days...bet that aids in amplification.

I feel pretty confident on that. I'll probably have everything out later this evening.

Yea, gotta be careful with ratio's, though....they get high quickly during the event in spots.

This is the kind of event that isn't a chore to forecast...everything else this season has been so laborious and tedious....but this is the type where I feel compelled to just lock myself in a room, alienate the family, grab the data and unzip-

I had zero doubt that the Canadien suite was zonked and way too far west, but my main uncertainty surrounded the intensity.....EURO seems to have caved more in that respect than it did with track.

Good mid level signal from ORH through ASH and MHT

Gonna start soon....bit of a late start...but never would have done it before entire 12z suite was in, anyway.

I think what we are seeing is merely a closing of the gap...don't forget the a$whooping the GFS just took last weekend. Yea, if it does work out like this, then I am having a rough season in the medium range...no way to sugar coat it. The fast flow is wreaking havoc with guidance, and me. My seasonal conceptualization looks pretty solid, though.