40/70 Benchmark

Right....hardly any are....like I said, its a spectrum. But this one has a large s stream constribution, hence the "LBSW characteristics".

Which ones? I don't think any of those dropped widespread 2' amounts up here, which is my point. All I said was the ceiling is capped, not that there can't be a nice storm.

Name them....I'll grant you Feb 1899 and Jan 1996, desite the fact that the latter proked the northern third of the area. You could use Feb 2003, but that was a different animal in that it was a wall of moisture tossed over an arctic dome.....more precarious with a wound up tempest like this will be.

Could you name one that produced widespread 2'+ across the majority of the area? Maybe Feb 1899? I guess Jan 1996, but that had a sharp cutt-off across the northern reaches of the area.... There usually is some northern stream contribution, that is why I used the word "spectrum", but this looks to have a very large s stream contribution....this isn't like a '78 deal, which essentially consisted of the N stream subsuming a s stream zygote. IDK, has me very leery....then you also have to worry more about track that far south....the more latituide between point x and storm inception, the more that can go awry en route.

If the evolution remains Miller A like, that limits the ceiling for this up here....you aren't getting an upper tier solution like Jan 2015 or Feb 2013 from that....you just aren't, espcially across the northern half of the area. We are going to need a very proficient phase to get up to this latitude for a 1'+ type of deal for the majority of the area.

This is why there is time being spent on butt-banging solitions because there is a pathway to that, as you have referenced, and this season has seemed to seek out said path at least excuse imaginable.

I can, actually....I have been drawing parallels to 1979-1980 since mid January. That is my futility season and it wasn't warm, either. Awful match in AK, so its not a perfect analog by any stretch, but some similarities in the east.

EURO would have Virginia with more snow on the season than I have.

I'm not skeptical of the storm....I'm skeptical that we get impacted to a large degree.

Yea, but its going to be windy Monday....have you factored that in?

As much as the prospect of 2' in central Virginia intrigues me, my nose needs picking, so there are other worthwhile endeavors.

I've waited to blog about this threat, despite the ceiling, for a reason...part of me still feels like I may never need to bother. I'll decide this weekend whether to do a write-off piece, or a preliminary threat assessment type.

I'm really going to want to turn the page if next week doesn't work....not sure I want any more "chances".....hopefully the pattern flips in March and I can check out.

You moved to Mass?

GEFS and EPS both have increasing spread back to the west, with kind of an inverted trough eppendage like feature, so there must be at least a couple of larger hits showing up.

Extrapolating, I think the 06z EPS would be a bit of a step back.

00z EPS is a modest improvement over 12z.

The 00z EURO is precisely the type of evolution I'm afraid of, and would fit that narrative of this season like a glove.

I think its always been high confidence that there will be a large storm near the east coast, but I'm still leery of how exactly it unfolds....so no, still not entirely sold on a big hit.

Of course that's the one post you make in this thread.

Just looks like 06z isn't quite as proficient as a phase, but if that is the level of variance we are seeing at this range, that is about as glaring a signal as one could expect.

Not at this point, no.

Close...19mb.

I think I'd literally sacrafice a nut to verify the GFS.

I'm guessing the GFS does that.