40/70 Benchmark

Some Light Snow Possible Mid Week Primarily Northern Sections Synoptic Overview: On Tuesday, a modest northern stream parcel of energy will emerge out of a split flow and eject over a western-biased PNA ridge, and into the Great Lakes. This clipper system will then resume more of an east-southeast track around the base of the departing polar vortex that will take it into New York State on Tuesday night. The system is likely to have limited room for amplification given the combination of cut-off energy over the southwestern CONUS in association with the southern branch, as well as a PNA ridge that is both fairly meager and western biased. Potential Storm Tracks: The forecast modest degree of amplification of this clipper system means that it is likely to track at least somewhat to the north of southern New England, rather than bodily through the region, as modeled by the GFS model, which would imply several inches of snowfalls similar to the last storm. The Canadian guidance tracks the system significantly further to the north, across northern New England, and produces little if any snow across the area. While the European model represents somewhat of a compromise solution in which the storm tracks just to the north of the area, across southern Vermont and New Hampshire. This scenario would yield perhaps an inch or two of snow north of the Mass pike and most especially north of route 2, which may represent the most viable solution. The southern track of the GFS is the least preferred outcome at this time. Stay tuned for an update on Tuesday if necessary. First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/some-light-snow-possible-mid-week.html

Weenie me all you want, but if we have an El Niño next year, its likely to a modest Modoki and ENSO in conjunction with the solar cycle will render 2014-2015 a quality analog.

I think the dire times are done after this year....largely due to the Pacific, as descending solar post MAX is rough for -AO/NAO for a few years...but TBH, +AO/NAO and a great PAC is probably the ideal paradigm for NE in terms of snowfall.

12z AI looks about dead-nuts on 00z.

Go back and look at the PNA ridge prior to the 1/11 fail...its like the spitting incarnation of this one.

On paper, its a cold pattern that garners intrigue, but ultimately doesn't produce much.

One obnoxious trend this season is for all of the PNA ridges to not only be west-based and positioned off of the west coast, but have a positively tilted, SW-NE lean that makes it very difficult to for anything to amplify enough to come up the coast.

I would lean into oncoming traffic as an alternative.

00z AI

The EURO is a compromise....GEM takes it over NNE. The EPS looks a hair N of the OP.

I wonder if that seemingly omnipresent bundle of energy in the SW CONUS inhibits any subtle amplification of that clipper....may be more more likey for things to trend towards the GEM camp than the GFS.

Euro consistent with a NOP 1-3"...that looks reasonable to me.

That was my best March in record...I could deal.

Look at my post count of late....

Well, try having 4 kids under the age of 6, and you'll check out during a lull, too. No, I don't think its over.

Just a guess....haven't researched obviously at this stage....but yes.

Mother Nature....thank you, mam, may I have another?

El Niño response next season would mean a big winter for the NE IMHO.

I expected below average snowfall, but this is challenging a record for my area...all for it, at this point...bottom out.

No...I said the AO/NAO will probably be positive, which is great for NE when coupled with a favorable Pacific.

I really don't care at this point...not sure whether or not you've noticed, but I have essentially checked out.

It probably won't be...what is your point? PS: I thought it would be +5 to +7?

I wouldn't complain one bit if it ended tomorrow...ready to cut my loses.

I pray. Maybe the most boring winter season my life.