40/70 Benchmark

Yea, my point is that it was colder than everyone thought, including Bluewave, not that it was cold relative to long-term climo.

I understand that the standard for what is "cold" keeps lowering as climo warms....that is irrelevenet when forecasting anaomlies. I am not speaking in terms of absolute temps...simply departurers relative to current climo.

I think the issue maybe that you are referring to actual temperature, when most forecasts are issued based on anomalies relative to the current climate period. I guess this disconnect is what is "nebulous" and the source of said "obfuscation". No one argued that it was a particularly cold winter...the point is that it took a relatively lengthy interlude of cold to register even near normal per 1991-2020. This was more than a merely a mismatch period along the lines of 2021-2022, which was even wamer.

Its not going to be an official La Nina, but that doesn't matter...agree otherwise.

I think its still going to be a pretty costly season due to a late home-brew barrage.

I kind of get some 2007-2008 vibes for the coming winter....

The west will do better...no contest. But just give me something flirting with normal and I'd be estatic.

That is pretty much what I am saying....like a 2016-2017 type of season. I don't see a high ceiling, but I think there is also a higher floor than man recent seasons.

Give me near normal temps and slightly below average precip...odds are high I would have my best season in several years, that's how bad it's been.

I don't expect a great storm track....I just think it will be wetter than last year.

Bleh.....anyway, it did pretty well last season and a lot of other guidance looks similar...with the heat centered over TX next winter.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

Wonder why the CANSIPS is so cool in the NE with MC forcing...

I have a new post discussing all of this shortly....good catch.

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me. No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.

This is what I a saying only from a different angle. The internet is a conduit for raw, visceral, emotional responses that are more tempered when you are staring someone in the face...so in a sense, it is more genuine, which is not always conducive to entirely constructive dialogue....this is why social media has devolved into such a cesspool. We tend to edit our responses to remove some of the emotion more easily when looking someone in the eye...that emotional threshold at which we lose the filter is much higher in person than it is in the internet. Regardless, some people have greater degrees of emotional regulation, which is true on both the internet and in person...just that said threshold will always be lower in a given individual behind the cyber-vale of anonymity. Obviously a forum like this is a step up from social media because many of us have known one another for decades and have in fact met in person, which alters the dynamic a bit, but still different from actual face-face exchanges.

It's just easier to dehumanize someone when you don't look them in their eyes....you respond to a post and lose sight of the fact that there is a person on the other end of the the keyboard....samy dynamic with road rage....people dehumanize the other driver and flip.

He had an insight that there tends to be a mismatch period from the prevailing MC forcing when the MJO is amplified in the MC during the month of October, as it was last year.

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicted the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month. I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

My heart weeps for you...

Its much easier to be abrasive online because its a much more impersonal mode of communication.

I don't think anyone would mistake last winter for a "great season"....the storm track still blew dead rats due in large part to the west PAC....I know I have said this before, but I would honestly take one of the warmer/wetter recent winters over last year. 1/7/2024 blew anything I saw last winter out of the water. 2' of snow is still awesome to witness regardless of how quickly it melts....a 6" stale pack just doesn't do as much for me unless its the holidays.

So sorry, John.

Where is this site at?