Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,947

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It certainly doesn't argue for a Modoki. I agree that it isn't east-based in the sense that it matches up with the most extreme members of that grouping, but region 1.2 is so small that it doesn't weight the index much. When considering the subsurface cold pool is not below region 4 and is under region 3, the EMI would be biased slightly east, as the JAMSTEC data forecasts. I do agree that it isn't a huge deal since it will be so weak.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agree with your bolded take.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    But he loves to call out the speculative posts of others from months earlier that didn't turn out to be correct...not to mention routinely make baseless claims of plagarism. Yea, he wasn't argumentative at all. I get @so_whats_happening's frustration with the bickering, but the his raindance reference was one of the least insightful posts in the entire thread given he was one of the more incendiary posters. I agree regarding the quality of his analysis for the most part.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I sense a quoted tweet from Mr. Miagi's nephew about how its been the 3rd hottest Summer in Japan in over 150 years of data, and the fish population is suffering.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think November isn't as impacted by the expanding Hadley Cell because of the shorter wavelengths......once those lengthen, December has been more prone to the milder patterns until we are deep enough into the cold season to offset enough to allow for coastal snow.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    The wave lengths are in flux at that time of year..I think that may be why. Easterly QBO and cool ENSO combos have had some active Decembers.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really, but I would still rather it not be Modoki all else equal. Plus you can never trust a cool ENSO HC alignment to not overperform in this regime.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It waned a bit last cold season, but its ramped back up.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not saying we will see the snowfall March 2018 did, but I think it will be better than last year. March 2023 with a bit tamer RNA would nail most of SNE.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think March will be more favorable than last year...I also think the cool ENSO event will be more east-based...last year was a Modoki. But that end of season PV disruption should be earlier than it was last year, more along the lines of 2023 and 2018.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    My guts says you are right, but it will still be pretty destructive....I think there will be some heavy hitting home brews.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mentioned that in my update last weekend.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Complete agreement...only matters for verification purposes.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was before Understood mid level banding well...I remember I kept waiting for that band that came up from the tri state and was over the Berkshires to slide east, but of course it never did. I had about 16".
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like it was yesterday....I was in the Marines and flew home just to be there for PD II and I got caught in a subsidence hole. I almost swallowed my rifle I was so despondent lol 2'+ all around me and I had like a foot. The the same thing happened again 10 months later in December....so 2003 can Eff right off from a mesoscale standpoint, although I know it was favorable from a larger, synoptic scale perspective.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he moved to Lunenburg
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    In this new, warmer climate, I don't see how we have a winter like 2002-2003 again unless all of our houses float away in a pool of molten lava. JK Chris....I do agree that the ship has sailed on that magnitude of sustained cold at this point.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I doubt it will hit official, but we'll see...doesn't matter, as we've discussed.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 2014 was pretty poor.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    On a scale of 1-10, with one being on the cape in a soueaster and 10 being north of Tolland in a SWFE, how safe do you feel??
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least by that point, bums aren't quite as toasty in car seats...
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    So sorry for your loss. My condolences. This forum has been in invaluable outlet for many of us through some very difficult times, myself included. May he RIP.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh....closest I have been to normal since 2017-2018 is about 10" shy in 2020-2021. I haven't been sniffing normal. Its always either north of south of me.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly right.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The truth is in the middle....some degree of this is natural variation and cycling, but its undoubtedly amplified and potentially altered by CC.
×
×
  • Create New...