40/70 Benchmark

Yep..."in this new, warmer climate"...tells you all you need to know.

I agree the Pacific is more important than the NAO, which is why the vast majority of the past decade has sucked. But all else equal, I will take a somewhat negative NAO...there are degrees of "suck". I think a -NAO would have helped last February...that doesn't mean I think its more important than the Pacific, but some of those mixed precip events probably would have been more wintry.

Sure, the WPO was still strongly positive in the seasonal mean, but it was better in many spots do the PNA mismatch and -EPO. The NAO and poorly placed PNA ridge foiled February. I am not debating that the HC is edging nothward, but there is more to it than that...the pattern has also sucked.

You can always find a random spot that doesn't do well with snowfall even though the overall CONUS did decently last winter.

It was also a decidedly +NAO.

Flip the WPO and poof.....it would head south again. I'm talking about on a seasonal level, not a two-week snippet in February.

The nuance that I mention is recognizing that although higher latitude teleconnnections may no longer rule the roost, they are not entirely ineffective, either.

The truth is its probably both, but each side struggles to acknowledge nuance, which is why we get the "new climate" and "denier" (I know Chuck isn't denying CC) dichotomy that fuels this eternal/ubiquitous debate.

Agreed on both accounts. I'm simply distinguishging between an ostensible La Nina, and an actual event per CPC guidelines.

I am considering it a weak La Niña. If you follow my blog that would be clear....just like I considered last year borderline moderate. All I am saying is that the ONI is one factor that should weigh in to how heavily you factor that indicator. I'm not using the CPC definition of a La Niña to forecast a big winter or anything....but I think it would give me pause in using that rule as my primary rationale for going with another death-star of a season. I think seasonal forecasters in general (not directed at you) need to be mindful of being a bit more nuanced and less rigid in their forecasting conceptualizations.

What isn't in modern times???

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons.

Nor do we know that it will be a technical La Niña season, as the supposed ACE rules only apply to La Niña.

49.8 this AM...so refreshing. I know the usuals are about to bombard me with charts full of ridges...I get it. But it's simply a nice fall preview.

"Well, in this new, warmer climate, guidance has consistently underestimated the southeast ridge, time of the MJO spent in (insert undesirable phase) and (insert undesired weather)".

The peak of the impact on the NAO is 2-4 years post max, so its entitely conceivable we get a decent bout or two of blocking this year. That said, it will average positive, of course.

This is a modest dose of good news for winter 2025-2026.

Very reasonable look IMO. I don't expect a KU pipeline to become eestablished, but nor do I think it will be a prhibitvely warm bloodbath. Could be a pretty good latitudinal gradient around SNE/CNE.

I have about 1.80".

I have about 1.80"...will add it up with official measurment this PM. Good thing it went south.

That's what I use.

I have over an inch and still going.

Candidate for post of the year!!

Finally not boned on the rain around these parts.