40/70 Benchmark

Not far off.....family is flying out Friday, so not much room for me to breathe right now...just complete chaos.

None of them are particularly enthralling, but some get their rocks off on the conga line of mediocrity.

I never bought the 5" amounts with this POS, anyway, so all good.

Messy Thursday on Tap This Week First & Final Call Synoptic Overview: The first in a long line of northern stream systems will travel the atmospheric conveyor and arrive in region during the day on Thursday. Given that this northern stream jet is so prevalent and the flow so fast, none of these storms will be particularly strong and they will all be fast moving. Expected Storm Evolution: Snowfall looks to break out after the AM commute on Thursday throughout the vast majority of the region, as it will begin my mid morning southwest and later morning northeast. Snowfall will mix and change over to sleet and rain to the south of the Mass pike and near the coast during the afternoon prior to ending, as a warming WSW flow aloft will accompany the storm system into the region. There could be hazardous period of glaze over northern Connecticut, southern portions of the Berkshires and Worcester hills. FIRST & FINAL CALL:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/messy-thursday-on-tap-this-week.html

Not THAT is Circle JERK....

Thursday is garbage....maybe a few inches this weekend, but still time on that. Again, no sense of urgency on my part. I don't regret glossing over Sunday night.

I know people like to get underneath the flashing neon lights of a large PV disruption and finger the 'ole prostate.....but once you pass the momentary climax that represents the culmination of doing just that, there really isn't much to write home about in this neck of the woods. The hope is that something noteworthy will evolve because there is the chance, but I don't see anything imminent that drives me to the lap top.

Unpopular take, but 16" over 16 days really doesn't do a hell of a lot for me TBH. ...my hope is that there is some larger ticket potential towards mid month. But you can shove these 2" installments every 3 days.....just a string of inconvenience.

I mentioned Sunday night at the end of my publication last week...didn't warrant much time. This is boring, nuisance crap that I could do without.

I have had complete cover since MLK Day.

+1.5" 16.5" total

I've been trying to get people to pump the brakes on these early spring ideas for a while.....though guardedly so prior to guidance playing ball with the PV.

Did you see my blog from yesterday? Feb 2018 is my primary analog for this strat disruption. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/guidance-now-keying-in-on-expected.html

Pardon me if I wait until a huge event has SNE in the day 3 cross hairs to unzip-

Nope....done closing.

You have like 12 kids, so never been any good at pulling out

+2" 15"

Yea, fixed.

Guidance Finally Converging on Expected Major Late Winter Stratospheric Disruption Early Analysis Concerning What this May Entail Guidance Nods to Climo Based Research It was decided upon completion of the preliminary polar analysis, published on August 11th, that the Eastern Mass Weather primary polar analog for the 2024-2025 season would be 2022-2023. It was then further elucidated in the publication of the Winter Outlook on November 12th, why these seasonal parallels, which include very similar strength westerly QBO values occurring near solar max during modest cool ENSO, made a major late winter disruption of the polar vortex significantly more likely relative to climatology. Here is a brief excerpt for review: "Given that the QBO analog of 2020-2021 took place near solar minimum, the early January 2021 SSW is of least relevance as a viable analog occurrence this season. However, the February 2023 SSW, which is a better solar analog, lends more support to a later season potential polar vortex disruption along the lines of March 1971 and 2000. This notion is supported by research on high solar, westerly QBO seasons, which lends credence to the late winter/early spring displacement scenario". "The postulation of a modestly disturbed polar vortex during the month of December, followed by a recovery during the middle portion of the winter, prior to a more substantial displacement of the polar vortex during either February or March is well supported by research on moderate, basin-wide La Niña events taking place near a solar maximum with a westerly QBO. Such an evolution would also be consistent with the 2022 type of preferred mismatch during January 2025, which would be Pacific driven (-WPO/-EPO and/or +PNA and accompanied by a fairly strong polar vortex (+AO/NAO)". However, despite a wealth of research supporting the notion of a late season disruption of the polar vortex, as of late Monday evening guidance did not have any such suggestion. That has since changed. Potential Stratospheric Warming Analog Both the European and the GFS have come into strong agreement on a polar vortex split in the vicinity of February 10th, where as one half of the polar vortex is sent into southeastern Canada, which would act to eventually supply cold air to the northeastern US. This represents a significant deviation from the displacement of the polar vortex that took place during the primary polar analog of February 2023, which sent the polar vortex careening onto the other side of the globe. Additionally, an extreme RNA pattern ensured that whatever cold was able to load over the CONUS was heavily biased west. February 2008 featured a similar displacement, which focuses pedestrian cold values over the north and deep interior. Perhaps a more viable analog to what is modeled to transpire in the stratosphere later this month is the February 2018, during which the polar vortex actually remained on this side of the globe. There is still plenty of time to monitor and glean greater insight as to how exactly this stratospheric disruption will evolve, but in the mean time, enjoy the reprieve in the form of a moderation in temperatures before winter storm prospects increase by mid month. The caveat being that this milder interlude will be heralded in by 1-3" of snowfall on Sunday night given that the current air mass is of arctic origin. These are type of southwest flow events (SWFEs)/warm air advection events that identified in the Winter Outlook as the type of precipitation events that would predominate the month of February. Sunday night's light snowfall will rapidly melt during a very pleasant Monday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/guidance-now-keying-in-on-expected.html

Not what I said, but we have a fighting chance because as you well know, some of these SSW bottle all of the cold on the other side of the globe. This will not be one.

Looking at things, this upcoming splits kind of looks like Feb 2018.

Most importantly, that looks to be a configuration where the wintry "loot" would spill onto our side of the globe for once.

Gonna be a busy month, Phil.....between the family and being sick this week, have stepped back, but they are gone Friday so gonna be diving back in soon.