40/70 Benchmark

It may just be an issue for more research needing to be done on the topic...it's bad enough that ur sample size is so low, but I feel like having only one piece of research on top exacerbates that issue.

100% agree here...been my stance all along.

Yea, I never doubt any of your research......just saying, not what I would have guessed.

2014-2015 was even more anomalous in that respect.

Far too reductive of an analysis.

That is counterintuitive AFAIC.

Even if we did, I'll take my chances on more snowfall than last year.

I think there is some value in honing in on how much temperature maxes have warmed, since I don't think the warmer mins are as detrimental to snowfall.

He also pointed out that the calculation that incorporates said cold pool is only modestly positive.

It began in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño....mid Atlantic just lucked out with the KU, NE did not.

Little warmer and more snowy..at least for most of SNE.

I would prefer to run it back with a more neutral WPO.

Last year is not a perfect analog, but it is variable IMO...it's one of my primary analogs.

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

I don't think it will be a ratter, but there are some limitations.

I agree with this...I'm not arguing that there isn't utility in seasonal rankings....however, if you aren't forecasting for a client that requests that, and understand the context of current climo within a warming climate than it isn't necessary. I do incorporate use of the 1951-2010 climo period for temps in an effort to "normalize" some of that disparity owed to CC when using analogs...otherwise, most older analogs will appear frigid by today's standards.

100%. I feel like John and Bluewave (Chris) act like we are in this new foreign world where up is down and down is up, but we have always had variance...just maybe its getting warmer and that's all. I understand some of these theories about how said warmth changes things and how the West warm pool/-PDO maybe be permanent etc, but we need some more time to more seriously entertain that IMO. Chris mores than John seems to disregard any possible avenue to favorable outcomes because "what used to be favorable no longer is in this new, warmer climate". I think that is a bit much.

Feel free to use any of my stuff, just reference the blog...all I ask.

Yup...just my opinion. We'll see, but Like Chris said, late seasons have been active and protracted. PS: Not every hurricane season is going to be active, nor is every active season going to be 2005 or 2020.

It's the established climo protocol. I don't think using that represents a tacit denial of CC. Do me a favor and voice concerns over in the CC thread.

I don't see why it matters unless someone is unconvinced of CC. We all understand that the world has warmed....but we measure based on current climo.

I don't care about the rankings. Most weather circles use departures based on current climo.

(Long winded) Mic drop-

I thought that was one of the more silly calls I have seen in a while.

I think it will be variable...slightly negative in the mean, which is fine.