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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, warmer and wetter than last winter is my guess.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I called for the mismatch period and explained in petty vivid detail why I didn't think it would be as good of a winter as 2010-2011 or 2017-2018 ....I was ultimately too warm, but not by much.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay...lets poll this....how many in this thread think Chris would have been too cold if he had issued a forecast last season?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Define "difference"......will it mean a below average temperature season with above average snowfall? Probably not....but will it prevent a wall-to-wall disaster with some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging and some blocking...probably.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said it was cooler in much of the east than 2021-2022, which is was. Really, now you want to compare 2010-2011?? I thought it was unwise to compare a pre 2015 season to this "new, warmer climate"?? I guess we can when convenient. I think you need to start issuing forecasts if you want want to try to claim some sort of victory. I think we can find a redeeming aspect of everyone's narrative, but the trick is to put out numbers and have it verify close to reality.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably will be a warm fall.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honestly....it retards constructive dialogue because then everyone is forced down that wormhole and loses sight for the forest through the trees. Seasons are measured against current base climo...that is a tacit undersanding, so please stop referring to 1895 in the responses. An understanding of how base climo is used doesn't preclude an acceptance of GW.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, hopefully you cool off soon. And to think, I always thought Davis was Straight...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least the heat dome is over the 4 corners region. I'll take that.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not arguing against CC or anything....the globe is warming, but last year was colder than we thought relative to 1991-2020 climo....that's my point. Nothing more, nothing less.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my point is that it was colder than everyone thought, including Bluewave, not that it was cold relative to long-term climo.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that the standard for what is "cold" keeps lowering as climo warms....that is irrelevenet when forecasting anaomlies. I am not speaking in terms of absolute temps...simply departurers relative to current climo.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the issue maybe that you are referring to actual temperature, when most forecasts are issued based on anomalies relative to the current climate period. I guess this disconnect is what is "nebulous" and the source of said "obfuscation". No one argued that it was a particularly cold winter...the point is that it took a relatively lengthy interlude of cold to register even near normal per 1991-2020. This was more than a merely a mismatch period along the lines of 2021-2022, which was even wamer.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not going to be an official La Nina, but that doesn't matter...agree otherwise.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its still going to be a pretty costly season due to a late home-brew barrage.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I kind of get some 2007-2008 vibes for the coming winter....
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    The west will do better...no contest. But just give me something flirting with normal and I'd be estatic.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is pretty much what I am saying....like a 2016-2017 type of season. I don't see a high ceiling, but I think there is also a higher floor than man recent seasons.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Give me near normal temps and slightly below average precip...odds are high I would have my best season in several years, that's how bad it's been.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't expect a great storm track....I just think it will be wetter than last year.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bleh.....anyway, it did pretty well last season and a lot of other guidance looks similar...with the heat centered over TX next winter.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wonder why the CANSIPS is so cool in the NE with MC forcing...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have a new post discussing all of this shortly....good catch.
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