40/70 Benchmark

Yes, this also plays into the pattern, which has sucked for the past 8 years or so. I understand that although you won't admit it, you strongly hedge towards this being permanent. I am not there yet. We will find out in a few years.

I don't think anyone entirely understands the factors that determine how impressive the cold source becomes for a given season...while we can be sure that the trend is for it to become less impressive, its not a perfectly linear progression, so any given year moving forward may have a more impressive reservoir to tap.....though clearly the odds diminsh with time.

Okay....so the earth is warming. Thanks for the striking revelation. My point is that while a relica Feb 2015 pattern wouldn't be as cold as it was then, it would still be much colder than this past January. I get the impression that you think that it would be similar to this past January and I have to disagree. The PNA (west-biased) and WPO were ideal for cold delivery to the NE US that season....last year they were not.

That is precisely what I have been saying....the persistent +WPO is a byproduct of the west Pac heatwave.

I don't understand what you are disagreeing with....if getting cold into the northeast is becoming more difficult, but admittedly not impossible, then how on earth do you contest the notion that the pattern has has some influence independent of the background warming?? Makes zero sense.

2021-2022 was the only -WPO winter since 2016-2017.

Yea, February 2015 had an immaculate Pacific pattern. I didn't say that the size of the cold pool doesn't matter...I said its BOTH, the pattern and the size of the cold pool. You seem to struggle to accept that.

Its a combination of shrinking overage AND predominately -PNA/+NAO/+WPO.

Eh....I may gave a quick rub n tug...

Must be CC.

This would have been an awesome event in winter....I would have had 20", while Scooter had 5" of slush. Dendrite would have had a 30" deform band.

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

To me there is a difference between cloudy with showers, and pouring rains with 50mph gusts, but yea...neither day is particularly conducive to rounds of naked corn hole....no.

I think today is worst, and slow climb starting tomorrow.

Yes, absolutely....even Boston would have some issues.

Except a -PDO and cool ENSO

This system would have crushed interior SNE, including my area.

SNE did significantly better in the former....near average snowfall in 2016-2017.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/05/modest-cool-enso-influences-may-persist.html

May have some of that with the weenie out and all...

I don't think there is enough booze to make the past 7 years palatable.

Keep in mind when I say "weak El Nino", that is a broad, general classification of the protptypical weak El Nino paradigm....once we actually get into the season, I will dig in more...obviously if we still have a Pacific cold phase/-RONI, then it probably wouldn't work. I incorporate all of that later in the fall. Yea, 2018-2019 was a tough one...I went big that season, but the early Jan SSW (focused on other side of globe) just served to lock the residual MC forcing from prior cool ENSO into place. This was also evident by the very paltry mid season MEI. El Nino wasn't running the show.

Interesting that the Euro and Aussie have a warm neutral.....hasn't the EURO been running hot for ENSO?

Unfortunately.