40/70 Benchmark

I would not necessarily say that.

Active Pattern Set to Continue into Mid Month Tropics & The Pole Initially Conflict There were two assertions made by Eastern Mass Weather with respect to the month of February, and the fact that they have both come to fruition is making for some challenging forecasts with respect to storm tracks because they reality is that they both conflict with one another. Maritime Continent Forcing to Remain Prevalent Throughout First Half of Month Currently the MJO is in phase 6 and approaching phase 7 at a fairly strong amplitude, both of which tend to favor lower heights in the west and greater heights in the east. Note the shift to the east of the east coast ridging and the building of higher heights in the west, which serves as a prelude to the changes that will grow more prevalent beyond mid month. While intuitively one may suggest that this promotes in inland track of east coast cyclones, that is not always the case, as is the cast with storm number one on Tuesday. Note that the system is forecast to pass south of the area and out to sea. despite the east coast ridge. However, if there were more of a trough on the east coast, the wave could potentially "dig" more, which could allow it to amplify and track further up the coast. Thus the more precise way to articulate this is that Maritime continent forcing is simply more unfavorable for major east coast winter storms because the east coast ridging that it promotes is hostile in a multitude of ways. However, tropical forcing does not operate in a vacuum, and there other global influences that can dictate the pattern. Namely, the higher latitudes. Ensuing Polar Vortex Split Will Play A Role In addition to a return to Maritime continent forcing and west coast troughing, the other Eastern Mass Weather postulation that is coming to fruition this month is a major disruption of the polar vortex, which will take place early this week. Not only will the disjointed polar vortex lobe supply antecedent cold air masses in advance of storm systems, but it will also act to foster the development of higher heights around the pole, which will only grow more prominent and represent added resistance to inland tracks towards mid month. While this next storm system on Thursday is an example of Maritime continent forcing mitigating an east coast storm opportunity via higher heights allowing for a more inland track, the aforementioned antecedent cold will also be evident. There is likely to be a few inches of snowfall across at least the interior prior to ending as sleet and rain. Cold will become more prevalent and there will be added resistance to inland tracks of low pressure systems as the month of progresses. A potentially major storm next weekend looks to at least deposit several inches of snowfall across the area prior to any mix or change to sleet and rainfall. Beyond mid month tropical forcing will begin to augment the building of heights near the pole as the MJO approaches phase 8. Stay tuned for First Call for the Thursday system tomorrow night and more update on the potential weekend system throughout the week.

Thoughts moving forward this week/month. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/active-pattern-set-to-continue-into-mid.html

Downsloping probably plays into it....buts it not the elevation, per se....

Forecast for Weekend Snows Too Aggressive Dry Air Mitigating Factor Clearly the forecast for this weekend's snows was not one of the better efforts from Eastern Mass Weather, as the 6-10" and 5-8" forecast ranges ended up verifying as 5-8" and 3-6". The short answer as to why this was the case is that the encroachment of the drier air from the south, as discussed in the Final Call, was both faster and more aggressive than expected. This acted to essentially put an end to accumulating snowfall by around dawn on Sunday, as opposed to lingering throughout much of the morning. There were some subtle warning signs amongst guidance that snowfall could be a slightly less prolific than forecast as a direct result of less proficient snow growth. Lift and Moisture Less Than Ideally placed Within Snow Growth Region Here is data derived from the NAM forecast sounding for Lawrence, MA during yesterday's storm. Note how the maximum area of lift and moisture was not colocated with the -12 to -18c snow growth region, which is the ideal thermal range within the atmosphere for moisture and lift to combine for the optimal production of snow flakes, which of course accumulate the most efficiently. While this data was considered, it was obviously not weighted heavily enough into the forecast. The reason forecasting is so difficult is because not only is it incumbent on the forecaster to complete an exhaustive review of the data, but its also crucial to determine how heavily two weight each piece of data and when to disregard. Final Grade: C+

C+ https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/forecast-for-weekend-snows-too.html

Yea, you are in the valley, too....the elevation is trivial.

How much now?

Looks like maybe a refresher Thursday before the next bonafide threat next weekend.

March isn't going to let us out....at least the first half, won't.

Never been a fan of the early spring idea.

I think I went with 41-51" here.

I see a pathway for me to hit 60" on the season.

I globe is certainly warming, but quite frankly, I think it's silly to imply that a cold winter failing to result in a seasonal surplus of snowfall (so far) in our portion of the country is attributable to climate change. I think if anything, we have observed less evidence of CC around the country this season than in any recent one...though that is not meant to imply that CC is not occurring. My point is, so far, I have yet to see any convincing evidence that CC has began to significantly reduce our mean seasonal snowfall. Do I reserve the right to change my mind in several more years? Absolutely.

What would that be? My mean snowfall since 2015 is right about at 60", and we just saw record snowfall all throughout the south. I think you need to accept reality even when it doesn't fit neatly within your agenda. Sorry. CC is real, but zealots like yourself are prone to fantastic over attribution. Fact, not opinion.

+7.5" 25.5"

Either that, or we're simply still regressing after a robust couple of decades. This becomes much more viable if we're still doing this in about 7-8 years. Here is a crazy, fantastic notion right out of a sci fi novel....perhaps exotic storms and seasons don't grow on trees?? Imagine?

7.5"

5.5"

3" Moderate snow

I'll take my chances on a net-gainer at my latitude.

Well, okay then...take the -PNA and run.

The very last thing I want is a gradient over the pike region while I hear the CT chorus telling me how great it looks.

December 2022.

Right, but this isn't March 2023....I'll take my chances with a -PNA where I am, as opposed to a "perfect" pattern. I'll will take primary issues over confluence issues.