40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, I think winter loves us long time...how much snowfall that means is debatable, but I don't think the implication of a delayed spring is.
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My research actually favored later into February and especially March for a true SSW, so imagine that we begin to see signs of that.....spring by Memorial Day?
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In other words...prepare for the greater likelihood of nudity, however, the devil is in the details, as we saw in January. That being said, the baroclinic zone is climatologically less likely to navigate so far to the south later in the season....to that point, we look to maintain some subtle WAR influence, so the pattern looks good.
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That is when we lose the tropical influence that is sending these lows inland....the tropics will provide constructive interference with the disturbed polar domain, as opposed to the current deconstructive interference.
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That has been a theme this year.....the troposphere has been driving the bus....kind of a tail wagging the dog phenomenon, whereas the PV has been stout most of the year, but it has not been coupled with the troposphere...hence the blocking patterns.
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It is, but its a different process than the traditional SSW....its happening due to lower proceccess and working up into the strat, so the impacts are felt more quickly since its beginning in the troposphere rather than the strat and downwelling.
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I'll have to note that in my post-season analysis...didn't specify in real time.
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Troposphere feeding back into strat?
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Yea, I noticed that...what is drivinf this?
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They seldom produce immediately....like folks have been saying, wait until the tropics begin to align with what is going on at the pole.
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EURO AI is pretty pants-tenty all the way around......Thursday is like 3-4" from I 84 N & W, next weekend another 6-8" outside of 495, and then a big dog next week.
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PV looks pretty split to me....I think the failure is in assuming that 3 feet of snow should instantaneously apprear in our driveway.
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Yea, morale of the story is that they were both nuciance variety inconveniences that sucked.
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The NAO has is so nuanced...there are like 6 different calculations and the orientation/shape of the heights can have drastically different implications on the pattern. Good luck to anyone trying to soley utilize a numerical index derivative of it in a forecast.
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I got an like 1.5" on Feb 2, so probably something similar.
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You should change your handle to wpc lol
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The piles along my driveway are like 4-5'.
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This remainds me of alot of that Sunday night, Feb 2 event.
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That is the window...after this weekend.
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Yea, he will probably have a net gainer and I may even...just saying I don't see it as a KU.
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I think SWFE will be the name of the game until the tropics become aligned with the pole....ie these will be messy systems. Now, that doesn't mean it can't trend more favorably/colder, but I don't anticipate this ending up a pure east coast snow event.
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I like the period from around the 20th onward.
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Mine are actually getting pretty high....
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This is what I meant....right now we have the tropics in conflict with the pole, but shortly beyond mid month, that will no longer be the case....huge potential.
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I couldn't care less...just a window for me to finish my blog.
