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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. It will probably do that for most of the event since the best dynamics remain W of me.
  2. Crazy how often this general theme has reoccured over the last several years...always either that, or about 10 mi north of me in NH.
  3. I doubt its 3"+, but then again, I haven't a fu(k to give and have not viewed a model since early March-
  4. I have zero snow to show for it...what do you have, 2" since March 1?? Keep it going?? I suppose its better than 90s...
  5. Seasonal models often are too biased towards default ENSO regimes.
  6. Strictly ENSO.....I don't mean it was the best analog overall...
  7. I did expect the marginal La Nina to evolve into a Modoki event, which worked out. 2008-2009 was the best ENSO analog IMO.
  8. For sure.....kicked my ass in 2023, I made some adjustments and was better this season, though far from perfect. The +PNA/cooler temps was a bit of a curveball, but I did not oversell snowfall this time.
  9. Totally. I get that its mildly exciting in some spots, but pardon me if I sleep through it.
  10. 0.0" overnight. 32.0" on the season.
  11. 1972-1973 was very similar to 2023-2024 in that respect, but obviously the latter, modern version was much warmer.
  12. I don't think my area will decline any time soon, but I do think its turning more feast or famine.
  13. I think SSW have some unique subtelties in their own right....perhaps some manifest a bit differently or less/more in the AO index itself for reasons not entirely understood, but I am inclined to say this had some impact....sure, there is some ambiguity, but unlike the February bottom-up deal, this one seems to have downwelled, more or less.
  14. All I got out of this is that you have camel toe
  15. I know for a fact that this happens...and yes, I am sure it did back then, but the point is this fact buttresses the assertion that the inflation of contemporary measuring techiques is exaggerated. Obviously that hypothetical scenario is dramtized and realtively uncommon, but it happens often to a lesser extent and is that extreme on occassion. These larger events in which the aforementioned scenario is most likley to take place are also the type of events that are purported to exageratre modern season totals becaus ehtye can offer the largest discrepancy between measuring techniques....it goes both ways. Larger events with immense amounts of precipitation over a protracted period of time present unique challenges for the oberserver.
  16. You mention mixing and I am glad you did......say KBOS receives 13" of snowfall in December, and then the coastal front sweeps in and changes it to rain with the temperature spiking to near 50 degrees between measurements. There are many instances in which the observer will not take the initative to procure they truely accurate measurement of total snowall, despite a few inches being lost.
  17. I think you need to appreciate that someone can in fact read your posts thouroughly and simply disagree. I understand the concept and your contention. I think you are overstating this because I know for a fact that many modern measurements are arrived at in the same manner as they wer eback then,,,ie no 6 hour clear. Obviously I'm not dismissing it entirely because no one was using the 6 hour method back then and some are today, but the bottom line is that modern measuring techniques are not consistent and in some instances underportray snowfall because they are not taken in a meticulous manner. With regard to the second bolded excerpt, you actually didn't read my post throughly enough. The inference is that the "ceiling" for snowfall in a given event may be somewhat higher today due to the increase in moisture...ie in larger events when there is no mixing and SG is optimal. Third point....I am not suggesting that older measurements are "untouchable and pristine"....in fact, I am suggesting the opposite. I am leaving open for the possibility that under certain circumstances they may have been more prone to error in either direction. As for "predispositions"...perhaps I should start a poll in which people can chime in anonymously as to whether or not they think you have any...I have a very strong predispositon as to what that perfunctory analysis would reveal.
  18. BTW, a warming climate also holds more moisture, so its not outlandish to think that the modern snowfall ceiling along the north east coast is actually higher than it was 50-100 years ago...however, I understand the limitations and agree that moderate snowfalls are growing less frequent due to said warmth.
  19. I'm not familiar with that event. Yes, winds are another factor....high winds fragment the dendrites, which hinders accumulation.
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