40/70 Benchmark

It was also a decidedly +NAO.

Flip the WPO and poof.....it would head south again. I'm talking about on a seasonal level, not a two-week snippet in February.

The nuance that I mention is recognizing that although higher latitude teleconnnections may no longer rule the roost, they are not entirely ineffective, either.

The truth is its probably both, but each side struggles to acknowledge nuance, which is why we get the "new climate" and "denier" (I know Chuck isn't denying CC) dichotomy that fuels this eternal/ubiquitous debate.

Agreed on both accounts. I'm simply distinguishging between an ostensible La Nina, and an actual event per CPC guidelines.

I am considering it a weak La Niña. If you follow my blog that would be clear....just like I considered last year borderline moderate. All I am saying is that the ONI is one factor that should weigh in to how heavily you factor that indicator. I'm not using the CPC definition of a La Niña to forecast a big winter or anything....but I think it would give me pause in using that rule as my primary rationale for going with another death-star of a season. I think seasonal forecasters in general (not directed at you) need to be mindful of being a bit more nuanced and less rigid in their forecasting conceptualizations.

What isn't in modern times???

I understand all of that, but just saying....that rule is geared toward technical La Niña seasons.

Nor do we know that it will be a technical La Niña season, as the supposed ACE rules only apply to La Niña.

49.8 this AM...so refreshing. I know the usuals are about to bombard me with charts full of ridges...I get it. But it's simply a nice fall preview.

"Well, in this new, warmer climate, guidance has consistently underestimated the southeast ridge, time of the MJO spent in (insert undesirable phase) and (insert undesired weather)".

The peak of the impact on the NAO is 2-4 years post max, so its entitely conceivable we get a decent bout or two of blocking this year. That said, it will average positive, of course.

This is a modest dose of good news for winter 2025-2026.

Very reasonable look IMO. I don't expect a KU pipeline to become eestablished, but nor do I think it will be a prhibitvely warm bloodbath. Could be a pretty good latitudinal gradient around SNE/CNE.

I have about 1.80".

I have about 1.80"...will add it up with official measurment this PM. Good thing it went south.

That's what I use.

I have over an inch and still going.

Candidate for post of the year!!

Finally not boned on the rain around these parts.

Risky, but you dew you

Yes...my grass has slowed dramtically.

I look foreward to Friday...so, so much.

Tough to be nervous when dissapointment becomes baseline.