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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    And I agree, as it was strongly positive last year, but I don't think it will be strongly negative this season.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the PDO and PNA part ways relatively frequently, as was the case last season. This is probably why the PNA in many of my analogs isn't as negative as you seem to think.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't get me wrong....I try to be pretty objective and back you up on plenty of takes, but you seem to be reaching here to eliminate that season from consideration altogether. The MEI hasn't been update since May, so perhaps you are mistaken. The RONI is -.40 and rising....
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014 peaked at .52 RONI. I don't see it getting below -1.0 this season. MEI peaked at -0.5....They haven't updated since AM, but I can't imagine that is going to get much lower than the RONI.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Negligible. I seem to recall you questioning whether there was a discernible difference between ENSO neutral and weak La Nina when people were questioning whether this would become an official La Nina....is that particular take context dependent?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't necessarily agree with this. Its a good polar and ENSO analog.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.17".
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    So doesn't Miami...what is the value of that perfunctory assessment? The volume disparity makes it silly to compare. When you put things into respective regarding how anomalous the prior decade was in the opposite direction, the current drought is still largely regression attibutable. I know my 10 year average just slipped blow normal this past year....but frustrating, nonetheless.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is what I was referring to.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I'm not necessarily arguing for a wholescale pattern change....just a rising PDO that will be somewhat less negative.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This one has never been much of a US threat.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Small sample size...look back long term and winter is clearly the path of least regret for weather enthusiasts in these parts.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will confidnetly bet against the PDO returning to those levels during the upcoming cold season.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everything that I am looking at says an extreme/ record PDO at this time of year is gong to elevate percipitously as we head into winter, which isn't a shock...one direction in which to go. Obviously it will be negative this winter.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...because I haven't seen any long range Euro heat waves posted in here this season.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anyone with a modicum of weather intellect takes it seriously....but by the same token, I'm not sure an endless dose of persistence forecasting is the best avenue, either. Obviously the globe is warming...I get it, but I don't think we are beyond the point of multidecadal oscillations and general variance quite yet.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Allan Huffman is @RaleighWx..good met.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    11-15 days...just in time for my return from Udanda. Beautiful.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    @CoastalWxis going to hunt you for bringing that up lol He becomes angry at the mere mention of it.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, higher floor, lower ceiling.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its going be a weak La Nina....not prohibitive to east coast winter, but nor do I expect a primary storm track over the benchmark. Going to me a blend of messy storms and redevelopers IMO.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENSO should be a bit weaker than last year, but I don't think it will make much of a diff. As for analogs, take a look at my new blog post with respect to the higher latitudes. I haven't done the Pacific yet....probably towards the end of the month.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bodes well for -AO this winter....but I do agree with you and @bluewavethat the NAO is likely to average +despite this.
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