40/70 Benchmark

The blog actually helps me to stay a bit more grounded about this because active patterns end up being a lot of work, which is made paltable by my passion for said acitvity. However, being able to disengage and shirk the self-imposed responsibility of writing and constructing graphics is a worthy consolation for tolerating mundane weather. This is why my most loathed pattern is a fast-paced flow with a rapid succession of moderate events, which maximize work and minimize the reward of intrigue. This shit tonight and tomorrow AM? It can fu*k right off....nothing more than a brief social media shout out.

Because winter elicits the highest of expectations around here...failure is baseline for severe and tropical...and no one expects to sustain a pants tent from temp/dew talk.

Exactly. But by the same token, I don't have an issue with others that deal differently...whether it be sledding off to a cabin in east dear-taint, Maine, walking the dogs to a hill to toboggan in an inch of mud, or simply going quiet. Everyone processes the shit in their own way. I prefer to vent a bit before drifting away into other outlets.

I don't think I will lose cover....have like 9" right now....low 40s won't kill that....especially not after adding a few inches first.....probably be left with 6-7".

As of right now, the system on the 24th actually isn't dealing with that aforementioned malady that has plagued this season. Lets see if it holds.

I don't see why the 20th will work out with that same dysfunctional look we have had all season....duped just like I was with respect to Jan 11, which failed for the same reason.

I was just about checked out when it was snowing in New Orleans last month, but got roped back in by the PV split...now I'm just about done.

Yea, I touched upon that in a subseuqent post.

Probably best shot would be late, when the wavelengths change because that would alter this seasonal misalignment.

Gotcha. Yea, the alignment/timing is just off and models can't pick up on that at extended leads. Frustrating, but at least we have seen a hemispheric shift this year.

Probably not a huge one. I think I need 15" to hit my forecast range for MBY...should pull that off, but perhaps barely.

I think you'll find some....that plunges troughs into the center of the country.

The good news? I think we are out of this decade long pattern we have been in....its just that the first run out of the gate was flawed in other ways.

I'm not so sure...at least in terms of snowfall. Sure, decent with some luck, but we have had none.

Look at the ridge placement in the mean this season....OFF of the coast, which seeminly places a bowling ball over the CONUS SW anytime we have a major phase attempt INVO the ne US. That is a recipe for failure, despite the cold look. Then, the mean vortex back east is right over us......again, in paper you look at that and take it....but its not an ideal paradigm for NE storm enthusiasts.

Any reaction to my ideas? Agree...disagree?

I'm climaxing as we speak.

Alignment and timing is just off this year in what ostensibly, on paper appears to be a "good" pattern. Devil in details-

Heh.....one issue that I see...when have we seen that PNA ridge placement before, as well as that feature over the CONUS SW??? Like, all season? That is why this won't phase properly IMHO....same issue Jan 11 had.

Still there, but we need it to come together and right now guidance is indicating it won't.

I know its a day 10 determinstic run....not the point. I think @Typhoon Tip nailed it yesterday when he interjected that it isn't the PV crushing everything, so much as it is just a poor phase attempt. But of course it will phase this weekend just fine....

I mean....try to use objective-mind and tell me this is hopeless:

Man, the PV drops in right behind that southern streamer on the EURO for the 20th.....that is close. I know, know.....we probably won't get the trend because nothing has gone right. I get it. Hey, Euro looks good for the 24th (ducks and runs)

I hardly ever look at those...I don't get the fascination.

Nobody.