40/70 Benchmark

I think @WinterWolfdoes

I would not be surprised.....I really hedged indicating that changes were likely. Gotta start conservatively in a precarious situation like that.

First Call for Probable Major Holiday Weekend Mess Snow to Potentially Extended Icing & Rain Messy Thursday AM commute to Serve as Prelude to Weekend Although it is certainly not a significant storm, the weak system moving through tonight into tomorrow AM is timed to unfortunately coincide with the morning commute, thus is advised to allow for extra time. Snowfall accumulations will range mostly between a coating and an inch, with some spots near the Vermont and New Hampshire border near 2" before a change to a bit of ice and rain. Then the focus shifts to this weekend, which is destined for more significant travel disruptions. Synoptic Overview: This weekend, a southern stream wave will begin to interact with a lobe of the polar vortex pinned to the south of a potent -NAO block. The combination of antecedent elevated east coast heights attributable to the Maritime continent phases of the MJO and the -NAO block being positioned sufficiently north as to allow a partial midwest phase will maintain enough eastern ridging to allow for an inland track of the low. This will delay the transfer of the mid level low to the coast until the system reaches a very high latitude, which will ensure that snowfall will be limited across much of the region. However, once the system progresses far enough to the east, the it will begin to be influenced initially at the surface by confluence due to the tandem of the -NAO block and the potent 50/50 low. Precisely how quickly this occurs will crucial to whether or not a portion of the area receives a significant ice storm on Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will break overspread the region as snowfall from southwest to northeast on Saturday evening. After a few inches of snowfall, precipitation will rapidly transition to some ice and rain to the south of the Mass turnpike by midnight late Saturday evening. The transition will quickly over spread the remainder of the region by daybreak, after several inches of snowfall. It is at this point that an extended period icing may occur across the deep interior, as the confluent flow to the north retards the retreat of the antecedent cold. Then precipitation may change to rainfall across the vast majority of the day on Sunday for at least a brief period, due to the inland track of the primary mid level low. However, later in the afternoon, as the surface low potentially transfers to the coast, colder air may once again be advected from the northeast down the coast, which would reintroduce icing issues across especially interior northeastern Mass over through the eastern slopes of the Worcester hills. Stay tuned for an important update on Friday night or Saturday morning, given that some modifications to the forecast will likely be necessary as details of this evolution become clearer. FIRST CALL:

First Call for Probable Major Holiday Weekend Mess Snow to Potentially Extended Icing & Rain Messy Thursday AM commute to Serve as Prelude to Weekend Although it is certainly not a significant storm, the weak system moving through tonight into tomorrow AM is timed to unfortunately coincide with the morning commute, thus is advised to allow for extra time. Snowfall accumulations will range mostly between a coating and an inch, with some spots near the Vermont and New Hampshire border near 2" before a change to a bit of ice and rain. Then the focus shifts to this weekend, which is destined for more significant travel disruptions. Synoptic Overview: This weekend, a southern stream wave will begin to interact with a lobe of the polar vortex pinned to the south of a potent -NAO block. The combination of antecedent elevated east coast heights attributable to the Maritime continent phases of the MJO and the -NAO block being positioned sufficiently north as to allow a partial midwest phase will maintain enough eastern ridging to allow for an inland track of the low. This will delay the transfer of the mid level low to the coast until the system reaches a very high latitude, which will ensure that snowfall will be limited across much of the region. However, once the system progresses far enough to the east, the it will begin to be influenced initially at the surface by confluence due to the tandem of the -NAO block and the potent 50/50 low. Precisely how quickly this occurs will crucial to whether or not a portion of the area receives a significant ice storm on Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will break overspread the region as snowfall from southwest to northeast on Saturday evening. After a few inches of snowfall, precipitation will rapidly transition to some ice and rain to the south of the Mass turnpike by midnight late Saturday evening. The transition will quickly over spread the remainder of the region by daybreak, after several inches of snowfall. It is at this point that an extended period icing may occur across the deep interior, as the confluent flow to the north retards the retreat of the antecedent cold. Then precipitation may change to rainfall across the vast majority of the day on Sunday for at least a brief period, due to the inland track of the primary mid level low. However, later in the afternoon, as the surface low potentially transfers to the coast, colder air may once again be advected from the northeast down the coast, which would reintroduce icing issues across especially interior northeastern Mass over through the eastern slopes of the Worcester hills. Stay tuned for an important update on Friday night or Saturday morning, given that some modifications to the forecast will likely be necessary as details of this evolution become clearer. FIRST CALL:

And it's obviously because of the northward displacement of the Hadley Cell due to CC....there are published papers on it.

UGH CJ

Heh...got time to kill, have a peek at the Korean for end of next week......Weeeeeeee

You know my feeling with respect to potential this period ....I'm just letting off some steam. Certainly not tossing anything.

I was waiting for someone to utter that obligatory cliche...don't forget, this season has been an equal opportinity sodomizer in every direction.

Its like avoiding the doctor in an effort to disassociate from that lump on your throat that has been growing for about year....

Mean sucks ass. -"What does she look like, Johnny" -"She has a beautiful heart that warms a room"

Yup.

GEFS will be suppressed

Probably for the best.

The first one looks like a firehose event.

I'd sign.

From a SNE perspective, that's a cutter.

I won't remain all frozen.

I meant east, but you probably gathered that....

He calls it the kids' playroom...

I think the ridge could stand to be a bit further east...its not ideal, but better and perhaps servicable.

The blog actually helps me to stay a bit more grounded about this because active patterns end up being a lot of work, which is made paltable by my passion for said acitvity. However, being able to disengage and shirk the self-imposed responsibility of writing and constructing graphics is a worthy consolation for tolerating mundane weather. This is why my most loathed pattern is a fast-paced flow with a rapid succession of moderate events, which maximize work and minimize the reward of intrigue. This shit tonight and tomorrow AM? It can fu*k right off....nothing more than a brief social media shout out.

Because winter elicits the highest of expectations around here...failure is baseline for severe and tropical...and no one expects to sustain a pants tent from temp/dew talk.

Exactly. But by the same token, I don't have an issue with others that deal differently...whether it be sledding off to a cabin in east dear-taint, Maine, walking the dogs to a hill to toboggan in an inch of mud, or simply going quiet. Everyone processes the shit in their own way. I prefer to vent a bit before drifting away into other outlets.