40/70 Benchmark

I think the 24th has a better shot as it stands now, as it doesn't look to have that issue...ridege is still a bit too far west, but its better.

That pattern out west isn't totally in our favor.....same issue we have had all season with the PNA ridge being slanted sw to ne off of the coast, and a closed low over the SW CONUS....take a look at the H5 chart for the failed 1/11 threat. Look familiar?

It will probably find a way to fail.

I think my First Call is probably about a worst case right now.

I'll probably hit 40 and lose a couple of inches.

Yea, that one had a legit arctic antecedent airmass...that season flipped on a dime, despite the coast getting porked.

One reason to hope for an amped trend this weekend.

VD 2007 remained cold....CF got up to Reading, MA near rt 128.....stayed below freezing inland from there.

Yes...I had 8" of snow/sleet.

That is a carbon copy of VD 2007 for SNE.

We're doing better with the still shots from you...please, no movies.

I had 1/2".

I knew you were going to flip that on me lol

Eh....stick to weather

You guys are a lock for 6" IMHO.

This could end up being a pretty epic month in my hood...I have been mentioning this week this month has already been pretty enjoyable for me. It has kind of reminded me of January 2009....no huge snow events, or frigid weather, but consistently cold with a chain of moderate snow events. Good retention month that seldom hot freezing.

Wow.....that is awesome. Nice trends.

I'm hoping for mostly sleet...too bad that damn primary mid level low gets so far north....

Maybe like a VD 2007 sensible result for SNE...not that VT will get 3'.

I think @WinterWolfdoes

I would not be surprised.....I really hedged indicating that changes were likely. Gotta start conservatively in a precarious situation like that.

First Call for Probable Major Holiday Weekend Mess Snow to Potentially Extended Icing & Rain Messy Thursday AM commute to Serve as Prelude to Weekend Although it is certainly not a significant storm, the weak system moving through tonight into tomorrow AM is timed to unfortunately coincide with the morning commute, thus is advised to allow for extra time. Snowfall accumulations will range mostly between a coating and an inch, with some spots near the Vermont and New Hampshire border near 2" before a change to a bit of ice and rain. Then the focus shifts to this weekend, which is destined for more significant travel disruptions. Synoptic Overview: This weekend, a southern stream wave will begin to interact with a lobe of the polar vortex pinned to the south of a potent -NAO block. The combination of antecedent elevated east coast heights attributable to the Maritime continent phases of the MJO and the -NAO block being positioned sufficiently north as to allow a partial midwest phase will maintain enough eastern ridging to allow for an inland track of the low. This will delay the transfer of the mid level low to the coast until the system reaches a very high latitude, which will ensure that snowfall will be limited across much of the region. However, once the system progresses far enough to the east, the it will begin to be influenced initially at the surface by confluence due to the tandem of the -NAO block and the potent 50/50 low. Precisely how quickly this occurs will crucial to whether or not a portion of the area receives a significant ice storm on Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will break overspread the region as snowfall from southwest to northeast on Saturday evening. After a few inches of snowfall, precipitation will rapidly transition to some ice and rain to the south of the Mass turnpike by midnight late Saturday evening. The transition will quickly over spread the remainder of the region by daybreak, after several inches of snowfall. It is at this point that an extended period icing may occur across the deep interior, as the confluent flow to the north retards the retreat of the antecedent cold. Then precipitation may change to rainfall across the vast majority of the day on Sunday for at least a brief period, due to the inland track of the primary mid level low. However, later in the afternoon, as the surface low potentially transfers to the coast, colder air may once again be advected from the northeast down the coast, which would reintroduce icing issues across especially interior northeastern Mass over through the eastern slopes of the Worcester hills. Stay tuned for an important update on Friday night or Saturday morning, given that some modifications to the forecast will likely be necessary as details of this evolution become clearer. FIRST CALL:

First Call for Probable Major Holiday Weekend Mess Snow to Potentially Extended Icing & Rain Messy Thursday AM commute to Serve as Prelude to Weekend Although it is certainly not a significant storm, the weak system moving through tonight into tomorrow AM is timed to unfortunately coincide with the morning commute, thus is advised to allow for extra time. Snowfall accumulations will range mostly between a coating and an inch, with some spots near the Vermont and New Hampshire border near 2" before a change to a bit of ice and rain. Then the focus shifts to this weekend, which is destined for more significant travel disruptions. Synoptic Overview: This weekend, a southern stream wave will begin to interact with a lobe of the polar vortex pinned to the south of a potent -NAO block. The combination of antecedent elevated east coast heights attributable to the Maritime continent phases of the MJO and the -NAO block being positioned sufficiently north as to allow a partial midwest phase will maintain enough eastern ridging to allow for an inland track of the low. This will delay the transfer of the mid level low to the coast until the system reaches a very high latitude, which will ensure that snowfall will be limited across much of the region. However, once the system progresses far enough to the east, the it will begin to be influenced initially at the surface by confluence due to the tandem of the -NAO block and the potent 50/50 low. Precisely how quickly this occurs will crucial to whether or not a portion of the area receives a significant ice storm on Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will break overspread the region as snowfall from southwest to northeast on Saturday evening. After a few inches of snowfall, precipitation will rapidly transition to some ice and rain to the south of the Mass turnpike by midnight late Saturday evening. The transition will quickly over spread the remainder of the region by daybreak, after several inches of snowfall. It is at this point that an extended period icing may occur across the deep interior, as the confluent flow to the north retards the retreat of the antecedent cold. Then precipitation may change to rainfall across the vast majority of the day on Sunday for at least a brief period, due to the inland track of the primary mid level low. However, later in the afternoon, as the surface low potentially transfers to the coast, colder air may once again be advected from the northeast down the coast, which would reintroduce icing issues across especially interior northeastern Mass over through the eastern slopes of the Worcester hills. Stay tuned for an important update on Friday night or Saturday morning, given that some modifications to the forecast will likely be necessary as details of this evolution become clearer. FIRST CALL:

And it's obviously because of the northward displacement of the Hadley Cell due to CC....there are published papers on it.